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PLTR DD - brain cells required if you are an ape!

PLTR DD - brain cells required if you are an ape!
Hello fellow retards
I know these are difficult times for this sub and it’s almost impossible to post something solid which is not about the current meme stocks.
Instead of jerking to some porn i did some research on PLTR and want to share my DD with you. This might be a longer text for your love dopamine level so maybe you should grab some your Adderall before.
The following text might you give your eyes aids since English isn’t my native language. I will try my best.
Palantir as a Company – the beginnings
PLTR was founded by some people and one of them is Peter Thiel who worked alongside with our holy papa Elon at PayPal. As a payment-service they had concerns about money laundering and founded PLTR to tackle this issue early. The CIA also funded PLTR (they are always funding stuff like this – Siri as example). This actually might be the reason why people think that PLTR is a company which aggregates data and do data analysis for the government….but this is not accurate and not correct at all if you see the big picture. I will explain this point later.
You retard still reading? Nice here some rocket emoji’s to pump your dopamine and keep you happy. 🚀🚀🚀
Let’s start with the DD
First of all my POV is looking for a midterm to long term investment in PLTR. My valuation considers PLTRs current state and predicting from now on for the next few years.

  • 1. The Management
Before I start with the product I rather start with the management. You can sell the nicest thing in the world. I can guarantee you that the product definitely won’t be considered as the nicest thing after a while if you have a shitty management (Intel). With Peter Thiel on the leaderboard we got a competent asshole and CEO is Alex carp (co-founder) Peter Thiel is well known and Alex Karp is one of us. He yolod his heritage into some business and become a chad. Seriously tho, I trust Peter and if Peter holds on Alex since Decades so do I. Peter proved so many times how cunning he is and showed how to pick adapt problems early and create solutions.

  • 2. PLTR Business model/ products
Before we understand how important PLTRs products are we have to understand that we are simpeltons who don’t have any business with PLTRs. We create data. We don’t fuck with it. We creating with using our phones or working in the office. Only a few of us may working with accumulated big data. PLTRs customers’ base isn’t neighbor Joe or Aunt Nancy. The products they offer are not even for midcap companies they are more designed for whole industries and governments. That’s the reason why their products aren’t so tangible for many people.
PLTR basically offers systems to big companies/governments which import their data into these systems. PLTR doesn’t sends workers to the client to collect data and analyse it. They sell platforms. They got 2 Products called “Gotham” and “Foundry” You may think wtf is this guy talking about? Let me explain it in 2 examples:
First example is Syria with Gotham. It was impossible in the country to know who the good guys are and who the bad ones are. I know u muricans only know yourself and the rest of the world is the “rest of the world” for you. But this wasn’t so simple in Syria you had many factions with different intentions and some of them were allies and some of them were enemies. The lack of information or the ability of recognizing and sorting these information’s are crucial in a war. PLTR solved the struggle with creating a map which provided resilient information for the marines so they can operate safely. Civil problems over there could also be fixed.
https://www.mercurynews.com/2016/10/04/palantir-using-big-data-to-solve-big-humanitarian-crises/
Actually what the John Hopkins University does with the covid numbers and the map, is some sort of what PLTR offering with their solutions. There are rumors that the tracking of Covid and the vaccination will be done by PLTR.
In their S1 Form PLTR describes it this way
“Gotham, our first software platform, was constructed for analysts at defense and intelligence agencies. They were hunting for needles not in one, but in thousands of haystacks. And they did not have the software they needed to do their jobs. In Afghanistan and Iraq, soldiers were mapping networks of insurgents and makers of roadside bombs by hand. Gotham enables users to identify patterns hidden deep within datasets, ranging from signals intelligence sources to reports from confidential informants, and helps U.S. and allied military personnel find what they are looking for.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1321655/000119312520230013/d904406ds1.htm#rom904406_11
The second example is about “Foundry” and it’s directly from the S1 File of PLTR (page 121)
“An Airbus A350, for example, has five million parts and is built by hundreds of teams that are spread across four countries and more than eight factories. Companies routinely struggle to manage let alone make sense of the data involved in large projects. Foundry was built for them. The platform transforms the ways in which organizations interact with information by creating a central operating system for their data.”
Both of these systems solving big issues with less effort. The arms industry as example would took billions for drones and stuff in Syria for the same job. The important fact is that PLTR does not spend so much resources for new clients they only have to provide access and support for their services and the client feeding the “machine” with data.
The key point is to understand that PLTR benefits very huge from economy of scales. This is very important since their costs for additional revenue is basically flat while the profits growing exorbitant with new customers. They offer a software and platforms and not kind of services where they need man power. All they do is working on their platforms and improving it.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-palantir-ipo-breakingviews-idUSKCN26E3I2


  • 3. PLTRs big issue during the last decade
Peter Thiel was a great supporter of Trump and funded his elections campaign. The market thought that when trump wins then PLTR will get all the government (especially military) contracts.
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/10/technology/peter-thiel-bet-donald-trump-wins-big.html
But this didn’t happened. Peter got cucked by the huge authority apparatus in pentagon. These dudes loves bureaucracy and they do it for a good reason. If you retire from your job in pentagon you usually get a high paid luxurious position at Lockheed, Raytheon or Bae Systems to make additional free money for your retirement. Many thousand people working in pentagon just to select and buy stuff for the government. They spending billions of dollars for purchases and then PLTR came around and said like „look guys we can do this job for a few millions instead billions“. Of course the arms industry was pissed and the pentagon boomers helped them out. PLTR got constantly scammed from boomers and didn’t get the contracts. This was also the „swamp „trump was talking about.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-28/inside-palantir-s-war-with-the-u-s-army
https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2017/03/27/palantir-trump-army-military-procurement.html
A fun fact to this matter: Before James Mattis got summoned as the Defense Secretary of the USA he was a general in Afghanistan. He ordered services from PLTR despite the fact the pentagon was against it. But the marines praised PLTRs software and valued it over the trash they used to know from the defense/arms industry.
Processing img 2os8izwwe4h61...
https://www.military.com/defensetech/2013/07/01/special-forces-marines-embrace-palantir-software
Even with a James Mattis as the defense secretary, trump as president and regardless that PLTR does it better and cheaper than the arms industry, it wasn’t possible for PLTR to get the government contracts.
https://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/11/palantir-defense-jim-mattis-inner-circle-239373
https://fortune.com/longform/palantir-pentagon-trump/
How it’s ended? Well Peter’s wife doesn’t have a boyfriend because Peter is the fucking boyfriend of their wifes. All ended at the court and PLTR won. All this injustice ended at the court. The judgements on these cases are true circuit breakers for PLTR. Not only because PLTR spent shit tons of money for law suits. The lawsuits were perfect uppercut hits on the arms industry and they ended some fraudulent behaviors and „best practices „in the government
https://www.defensenews.com/land/2016/10/31/judge-rules-in-favor-of-palantir-in-lawsuit-against-us-army/
https://www.defensenews.com/land/2019/03/29/palantir-who-successfully-sued-the-army-just-won-a-major-army-contract/
PLTR will profit from a Biden who wants to decrease the military expenditures. They will get the job done and at the same time the costs will go down. With the recent judgements the door looks open.

  • 4. Valuation problems
I could spam some multiplication on revenue or even a DCF but I think it’s not necessary. Expect the costs of research and development (maybe marketing) the costs of PLTR stood mostly flat in the last quarters. It’s a growth stock and the pricing is mostly in the perspective of PLTR. This is actually all we need to know that the revenue increases while the costs staying mostly flat. Check out the balance sheets at page 12 on the S Form 1.
Let’s talk about the market. The whole market seems overpriced but it isn’t tbh. Due to the low cost of capital there is no alternative than to throwing your money on stocks or on real estate. There is nothing with a solid interest rate around (not even in emerging markets). At the stock exchange like in 70s, the companies had to offer a return, a perspective which should be more attractive as putting your money on a saving account with 8% interests without risks. These times are gone since the 2000s. So before people discuss insane valuation they should check out the fiscal and economical policies.
Now back to PLTR and why the price is difficult to set (cheap imo). First of all PLTR did a direct listing without an investment bank for their share offerings. Its lacking of the valuation which they usually would get through such a process.
PLTR wanted to do IPO with Morgan Stanley but it was mess.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-04/morgan-stanley-s-long-romance-of-palantir-pays-off-as-ipo-nears
Morgan Stanley proved themselves many times as stubborn communists when it comes to valuations. I mean you guys remember their disgusting price targets for tesla like 100$ post split or stuff like that.
These guys are very focused on numbers and I know it’s difficult to price in the potential and perspectives. But you can’t ignore these things for a fundamental valuation. If you want to consider these things in the price you have to understand the business of the company.
This ended that one team at Morgan Stanley valuated PLTR with 5 billion while another team thought they worth 40 billion.
https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2018/11/14/palantir-ipo-valuation-morgan-stanley.html
How is this difference possible and why is this happening? Because people don’t understand what they are valuating. This happened a lot in the last decade because the decision makers in these banks and many analyst don’t have any idea which metrics they should use on companies like that. They are using the metrics from classical industries on new business. They freaked out when Facebook was valued with 100 billion as IPO. Same with Twitter and in the last years it was Tesla. They said apple going to tank every damn year in the last decade. I honor Warren Buffet so much since he has the dignity to realize that he don’t understands something but at the same time he sees the potential and the trend. That’s why he hired 2 Chads who bought Snowflake for him. The transformation and the generation change didn’t happened yet. That’s why they try to use the metrics from Caterpillar on Tesla.
Guys the whole market is mooning with the cheap liquidity. Pennystocks and zombie companies transforming into billion dollar market cap companies. Facebook as IPO had a market cap of 104 billion back in 2012. At that time it wasn’t possible for Facebook to monetize their users with selling ads. They just paid 100 billion for the potential in more difficult market conditions.
Look at the IPOs like doordash, Bumble. I’m not going to call this a bubble. Just check out their business cases and use the metrics. Maybe its easier for people to understand Bumble and Doordash…
On page 12 of the S1 (balance sheet) Form you can already see the huge positive trends in PLTRs revenue and their costs. All this without all the positive events and contracts PLTR recently got.
PLTRs valuation is difficult and I think it’s miscalculated by pessimistic communist who don’t understand that their products are game changers for industries, governments and defense forces. Because of these points I think there is huge price potential for PLTR

  • 5. Risks for PLTR
Despite the general market risks PLTR mentions at page 29 of the S1 Form the competitors as the main risk: “We face intense competition in our markets, and we may lack sufficient financial or other resources to maintain or improve our competitive position.” The S1 Form didn’t aged well. Actually I don’t think that PLTR would have any trouble with offering new shares. Also with Peter Thiel as one of the founders the financial side should be stable.
As PLTR competitor people use to mention IBM. The boomers from IBM already surrendered with their Windows95 computers and decided to cooperate. The biggest threat would be big tech with big money like AMZN or APPL. You all now the stories about APPL and Spotify or AMZN and all the merchants. Even if the big players would step into PLTR markets it would be difficult for them since PLTRs products doesn’t rely on an Amazon store or on apple devices. PLTR is years ahead with their products.
I think the greatest risk (still) are the boomerish arms industry and all the boomers in pentagon and other authorities.
There are very corrupt infrastructures when it comes to decision making and assigning contracts. People fear changes but they can’t avoid the changes. With the recent judgements we can see a turn on the tables but the transformation will still take time. It’s a circuit breaker with an avalanche effect.
The risk factors on page 16 on the S1 form mostly aren’t relevant anymore. People complained that PLTR wasn’t profitable for 18 years. Well PLTR was never designed to be profitable and Alex Karp once said “love us or leave us alone”.
https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2020/09/09/palantir-ceo-makes-livestreamed-pitch-to-investors.html
But even this changed recently. PLTR became profitable in 2020 with 130,000,000§. Now the same people complaining about how high the stock price compared to the profits. Well just you wait.

  • 6. Conclusion and Outlook
If you still reading I have to admit that this was a lot text and i am sorry again about the lingo. Let’s connect the dots and bring this information to a point
  1. The boomer coalition in the pentagon and in the arms industry is taken down by PLTR. They will able to get the governments contracts and the classic arms/defense industry is no match for PLTR products. The judgements of lawsuits were catalyst and the effects should be already shown in the next earnings. These were such underrated events but I think there still will be some odds but PLTRs situation is much better as it was a time ago. The chains are off!
  2. Military expenditures rising worldwide

https://preview.redd.it/qqcv8vzee4h61.jpg?width=744&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=98d264f091b7ff80926038660f43c57b87fc8ef2
https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2020/global-military-expenditure-sees-largest-annual-increase-decade-says-sipri-reaching-1917-billion
With Bidens presidency we will see more disruptive technologies chosen by the government. Biden want to reduce the military expenditures. PLTR is able to provide better service for lower cost. Not only the recent judgements also the political change will help PLTR. Ironic if you remember that Peter supported Trump and getting his tendies from Biden.
  1. PLTR superior products profits hugely from economy of scales. They don’t have any significant costs when they acquire new customers. Making the big data usable for decisions making is already very important and step by step people realize that this issue growing fast. We creating everyday more data than we did yesterday and leaving the majority of it as trace and unstructured data. We don’t work with it but big Institutions does.
Here is the passage from the S1 and I fully agree with it:
“The systemic failures of government institutions to provide for the public — fractured healthcare systems, erosions of data privacy, strained criminal justice systems, and outmoded ways of fighting wars — will continue to require both the public and private sectors to transform themselves. We believe that the underperformance and loss of legitimacy of many of these institutions will only increase the speed with which they are required to change.”
  1. PLTRs value. The current situation of the market with tons of liquidity seems like a bubble. People don’t know what to do with the cheap capital and people throwing it even on meme pennystocks.
Facebook had his ipo back in 2012 during much harder market conditions as now. The valuation of Facebook was over 100 billion and people called it insanely overvalued. They did it because Facebook didn’t had a way to monetize their users (especially on mobile platforms). Facebook has a market cap of over 750 billion now and nobody calling it over valued.
A remember the recent examples? Bumble?! Bruuuh. Don’t get me wrong if you invested in Bumble but they have nothing special to offer and their business case can easily copied or improved by others. Its shows the current state of our market with the crazy liquidity that even zombie companies got astronomic valuations. Use these metrics on PLTR with great products, great management, low cost base and less odds as ever before….
PLTR price is wrong imo especially in this market and with PLTRs current state and perspective.
  1. Do you use PLTR? Me Neither! It’s not designed for us and we have to inform us about the success. PLTRs new contracts and their future are shining bright. With the settled lawsuits the sky is clear for PLTR. But their customer base is not only America. I’m not a murican and 3 weeks before I just find out that the police departments in our state using PLTR products. I don’t need to link endless evidences here since you can google it by yourself and see how many contracts PLTR recently got. Especially after the circuit breakers we talked about.
I have genuinely trust into Peter Thiel and Alex Karp that their will make the best of PLTRs potential. The odds getting removed and the demand for PLTR is increasing.
If all these information would priced in correctly we would have a share price of at least 60-70$. With upcoming and ongoing positive events PLTR share price should soar more..
What’s next?
Now we have earnings ahead and the lock up period ending.
For the earnings I think the number will be fine and keep up the positive trend on revenue with a disproportionately trend of the costs. The most important part will be guidance for 2021. We should listen closely and see if the magic is already happening.
The second event is the ending of the lock up period. You all remember the end of the lock up period of Nikola? Just 1-2 days after they announced they don’t got the GM deal? The stock tanked – for a good reason. You know the guy Trevor Milton.
But in PLTRs case everything is different. Despite the successful deals they got, does a guy who says “love us or leave us alone” sounds like someone who going to drop his shares at the first possibility? I don’t expect such a behavior from Alex Karp and neither from Peter Thiel. If some employees drop their shares it should be fine.
I would appreciate if the stock prices would go below 3ß. It would create a healthy bullish chart pattern and would be actually a nice discount to get in or stock up. I don’t think that the shares going to dump a lot because of this event. The earnings and the guidance are more important and the key events if you want to invest mid – long term.
What does all this means for you? Nothing! Please don’t do any market activity based on my DD. I’m just sharing my knowledge and looking for critics so I can reevaluate my theses. This is not a financial advice.
My hearts bleeding for all the GME holders. My last Reddit account got banned because I criticized “the pumpers”. In one of the comments I called the mods gay and got banned permanently (bye bye 20 k karma). If you are new to this please don’t do any decision based on this so I can sleep gladly.
I’m not well positioned and not trying to pump this stock. I have 70 shares and a CSP. Fair play and fuck all the bots and pump and dumper we recently got in the sub!
Leave an upvote if this post helped you. I need some more karma to be able to shitpost everywhere again!
submitted by PutsOnYourWife to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

MVIS: Shiny Laser Go Pew ⚡ No But Seriously They Are Gonna Take Over The LiDAR Industry

MVIS: Shiny Laser Go Pew ⚡ No But Seriously They Are Gonna Take Over The LiDAR Industry
So, the day has come, and MicroVision's market cap is finally big enough so that you won't get banned for mentioning it on WSB. But what is it? Why have they seen an 800%+ increase in three months? Where are they headed? Allow me to explain.
About Them
MicroVision, Inc. (MVIS) makes futuristic-as-fuck laser technology that's used in self driving cars and augmented reality headsets. This already sets them apart from a major competitors like Velodyne (VLDR), which focuses solely on LiDAR for self driving cars.
Sumit Sharma, the CEO, was head of operations at Google's Project GLASS and has worked to map hardware development at Motorola, also worked at Jawbone. Source
Why have they been increasing 800% in three months while similar companies in the same sector see a fraction of that gain?
Because their tech is much more advanced than the competition, and they were (are) criminally undervalued.
The reason they're so undervalued is because the first thing hedge funds see when they research a potential investment is the balance sheet, and on paper MVIS looks like shit. (Low assets, high liabilities) Even I saw the movement back in December, did some research, and was like "Wtf is this? I need to get puts" But once you do research into their product, who their customers are, and the future of the industry that they are involved in, you see that MicroVision is a turnaround story similar to that of Plug Power; both are 90's futuristic companies that people got way too excited about in 2000, have struggled to make it to 2020, but now are about to finally have their heyday. And they got a $13 million equity facility (loan) in December that greatly improved their balance sheet, making them appeal to institutions, and bringing Vanguard and Blackrock to invest in MVIS days later. I actually had a hedge fund manager tell me that MVIS was doomed to run out of cash in Q1 2020, but if they secured funds then they would have a lot of potential. I go over that in the comments.
MVIS (left) vs PLUG (right) 1990's until present
Anyways, what is this "much more advanced" technology? I'll just let this chart do the talking:
The MicroVision Consumer LIDAR being compared here isn't even their model designed for self-driving cars, that will be coming in April.
The resolution it can take as input/second, the points per second, is key when it comes to how clearly the LiDAR sensor can see, how accurately it can identify what it is seeing, and how quickly it can react.
That chart is from 2 years ago and still the best resolution Velodyne can provide today is only 4,800,000 pps in their most advanced model, the "Alpha Prime"
3D Lidar Data Points Generated 2- Single Return Mode: ~ 2,400,000 points per second- Dual Return Mode: ~ 4,800,000 points per second.
VLDR has not publicly announced a price for their Alpha Prime yet, but historically their top of the line devices cost $75,000. I have seen unsourced numbers of the Alpha Prime costing $100,000. That was last year, will probably be brought down to be more reasonable for automakers to purchase. They did announce a $500 model called the Velarray H800 in November, but the only thing they said about its pps resolution is that its "outstanding"... lol.
As for Luminar (LAZR), they will launch the new model "Iris" in 2022, which will cost about $1,000: (the same price as MicroVision's device to be revealed in April). It will also only operate at 10Hz. This is similar to playing a racing game at 10FPS. If you know anything about video games, you know that this is unplayable.
Iris will cost less than $1,000 per unit for production vehicles seeking serious autonomy, and for $500 you can get a more limited version for more limited purposes like driver assistance, or ADAS. Luminar says Iris is 'slated to launch commercially on production vehicles beginning in 2022,' but that doesn't mean necessarily that it's shipping to customers right now. The company is negotiating more than a billion dollars in contracts at present, a representative told me, and 2022 would be the earliest that vehicles with Iris could be made available.
A lengthy post has been make comparing Luminar's resolutions with MicroVision's, which was not easy to calculate because Luminar said their resolution was "300dpi/spdeg", a statistic that is incomprehensible for shareholders because its not the common specification of millions (3D) points per second. Here's the math, I sum it all up at the bottom:
Luminar's Hydra claims resolution of "up to 200 points per square degree" and a FOV of 120° x 30° (degrees). (and 300 points for Iris, the one coming in 2022.)
However, the vertical FOV can be configured from 1° to 30° , which likely explains the use of "up to" in the resolution numbers. Generally, as FOV expands, resolution shrinks, assuming a constant pixel stream. This is why Alex Kipman made such a big deal about MSFT maintaining resolution in Hololens 2(YT links aren't allowed apparently) while expanding FOV because it required more pixels to do so.
Specifically, regarding Luminar, is 200 points per square degree available when FOV is at the maximum 120° x 30°? Or is it available only at a lesser FOV such as, for example, 120° x 5°? The use of "up to" suggests the latter.
Even assuming 200 points per square degree at 120° x 30° is available, which is not conceded given the stated "up to", that would yield a total resolution of 720,000 points. MVIS claims capacity in excess of 20M points per second. At a resolution of 720,000 points, Luminar would require a frame rate of 27.7 Hz to equal 20M points per second. Luminar's specs do not suggest that its technology is capable of such a high frame rate at this resolution. This is not surprising given it does not use MEMS micromirrors but something more "mechanical" including, as per a recent patent, spindles and a drive belt
(1) At video time 19:56, Luminar compares the specs of its Iris product to industry requirements. The graphic reveals that Luminar's 2022 production lidar, Iris, will support resolution of 300 points per square degree at 10 Hz. Assuming that resolution applies to the entire FOV of 120 x 30 degrees and not just a portion of the FOV, that would imply a points per second value of 120 x 30 x 300 x 10 Hz = 10.8M points per second. If the 300 points/ sq. deg applies only to a smaller FOV, the points per second figure would be proportionally smaller. Microvision claims 20M points per second for its current MEMS lidar. The company also advises that its technology is capable of more than 20M points/sec.
TLDR: The best case scenario for Luminar is that their 2022 model will have 10.8 million pps, but in reality its probably much lower than that because of FOV configurations, careful wording by press releases, and Hz limitations. Additional Interesting insight on Luminar and their tech lagging behind is in the comments, this post is long enough already.
Again the MicroVision Consumer LIDAR (specifications) being used for comparison here isn't even their model designed for self-driving cars. Their device specialized for cars, the "1st gen Long Range LiDAR (LRL) Sensor", will be coming in April.
We expect our 1st generation LRL Sensor to have range of at least 250 meters and the highest resolution at range of any lidar with 340 vertical lines up to 250 meters, 568 vertical lines up to 120 meters and 944 vertical lines up to 60 meters. This equates to 520 points per square degree.
(For those who read the math on LAZR, notice he doesn't say up to)
It testing is successful, the 1st Generation LRL Sensor will be able to calculate velocity of objects relative to itself, and be able to be used in Level 3 and Level 4 self-driving applications
Our LRL Sensor will also output velocity of moving objects relative to an ego vehicle across our dynamic field of view in real-time 30 Hz sensor output. This sensor would accelerate development of Level 3 (L3) autonomous safety and Level 4 (L4) autonomous driving features that are important to potential customers and interested parties.
What is Level 3 and Level 4 autonomous driving?
https://preview.redd.it/n4c8831l9dh61.png?width=848&format=png&auto=webp&s=0652984c72da3159b53a4fc4058c9d9e33cc6b05
Level 1 is feet off, level 2 is hands off, level 3 is eyes off, level 4 is mind off, and level 5 is full passenger (you can sit in the back). So basically, they have that 2045 technology today, while everyone else is trying to play catch-up. How is it so advanced? It all lies in the high resolution of the laser sensors.
I've seen MVIS's LiDAR in action at a shareholder meeting. It can recognize people. This has been described on MicroVision's conference calls, and has been described with significant additional safety and convenience features.
This could identify individual people
Can distinguish between pets and people (or YOUR pet and the neighbors pet)
Can distinguish between normal behaviors and strange things that could be of concern
Could save face-scans of intruders and allow intruders to be identified later Source
If their devices can really recognize people, objects, and pets, it could integrate security verticals in MicroVision's business model. (Video surveillance is expected to reach a 144.5 B market size by 2027) Why not just use cameras? Cameras are worse at long distances,
LiDAR is the only sensor that gives you resolution at range: the ability to get very fine and very accurate detection of objects in space.
that's why Teslas use radar systems in addition to their cameras, still not good enough to prevent fatalities on the road using Tesla's "full self-driving" software. Also, cameras struggle with light glare, weather, and 3D imaging, while LiDAR fixes all those issues. The main advantage of cameras are their resolution, and MicroVision is bridging the gap.
So, will testing be successful?
We expect the capability of our LRL Sensor to meet or exceed OEM requirements, based on technology we have scaled multiple times over the last decade, as being a very strong strategic advantage. (Same source)
This product has been getting fine tuned for years and I am personally confident that they will be able to outperform in their testing.
Demonstration(YT links aren't allowed apparently) of their consumer LiDAR product from 2018 (make sure your quality is all the way up).

Growing Industry
The self-driving cars market is expected to reach 220.44 billion dollars by 2025. This includes taxi, civil, public transport, heavy duty trucks, ride shares, and ride hail (UBER - 72 B mkt cap) applications.
Traffic Accidents in the US alone Cost 871 Billion A Year, even just yesterday there was an insane pileup on the I-35W highway in Texas that killed 6, injured 36, and damaged 133 vehicles.
Not only self-driven cars need LiDAR. In a few years, as soon as MicroVision's 1st Gen LRL is available, LiDAR systems will certainly become mandatory for (still) human-controlled cars to avoid collisions. This tech could become as revolutionary and successful as airbags. Airbags are a 37.3 billion dollar industry.
If only 10% of the cars produced annually contain four Microvision LRL systems, this will result in a volume of 364 million units in ten years. (9.1 million cars * 4 modules * 10 years) And this is a conservative calculation, both a higher market share, more cars produced, and more modules per car are conceivable.
At least 4 LRL devices will be necessary to establish a \"circle of safety.\"

Augmented Reality
The Hololens 2 is an example of a Virtual Reality Device (VRD) manufactured by Microsoft that uses MicroVision MEMS Laser Scanning display modules inside.
NASA & Lockeed Martin using Hololens (Video)(YT links aren't allowed apparently)
'When a technician puts on the Hololens, they instantly see the work instruction, instead of having to go through stacks of rectangular data, whether its paper or another form of a screen'...
'We see a reduction in cost, increases in quality'...
'What we've found is we can take an 8 hour activity and reduce it down to 45 minutes'...
'We haven't had a single error that's been documented'...
From 2002-2006, MVIS commercialized versions of a monochrome (red) VRD for industry and the military. It was called Nomad.
Microvision also developed a full color version for the military, the Spectrum SD2500.
The military alone currently intends to spend almost $3B on IVAS, augmented reality devices that use MicroVision tech, in the next several years. (Video at 1:12 - "based on Microsoft's Hololens" - amazing, must watch - "lets you see around corners.. see through smoke") (There is a money trail to confirm too: financial report)
One of the many capabilities of the IVAS heasets.
MicroVision revolutionizing the way people use GPS systems, to launch in July. (GPS industry will be 146.4 B by 2025)
This new GPS system comes equipped with an augmented reality heads-up-display (HUD) that attaches directly to your sun visor. This laser-projected GPS micro-display, developed in collaboration with MicroVision, makes it appear that your route directions show directly on top of the road, letting you keep your eyes on the road at the same time.
There's a reason that Apple CEO Tim Cook said a few weeks ago that Augmented Reality is the "Next Big Thing."
Cook was asked about what he expects to be the biggest tech developments in the next five to 10 years. Cook’s response made it clear that he sees augmented reality as the future, calling it the “next big thing.”
Imperial College Healthcare using Hololens 2 to fight the coronavirus.
While attending a trauma call in the early stages of the pandemic, Mr Kinross noticed that 29 people were working in close proximity. He realized the established way of working would have to change dramatically.
Mercedes-Benz using Microsoft HoloLens 2 for faster, safer vehicle service.
Mercedes-Benz Virtual Remote Support
The technician is then linked with a Mercedes-Benz specialist working remotely who can see what the tech sees and communicate in real-time -- manipulating the holographic information with annotations, highlighting areas of focus, pointing at things in the real world and presenting documents and service manuals.
In the next few years, business verticals will be possible in the markets for smart glasses (Video)(YT links aren't allowed apparently) and projections with touchless input(YT links aren't allowed apparently) and gesture control. For example, an eyewear company could develop the smallest and lightest smart glasses device on the market using the chip in that smart glasses video.
In the MicroVision Augmented Reality video, for example, we share a potential module design using our existing MEMS technology platform that could offer the lightest, smallest in volume, low power module with up to 40 degrees field of view packaged into eye wear that resembles frames currently accepted in the market. I believe one could see how our module in the design example would be compelling for a mass-market product. Source

Patents
MicroVision has 484 patents granted and pending. This was enough to get them on the Ocean Tomo 300 Patent Value Index. What is that you ask?
The Ocean Tomo 300® Patent Value Index includes the top value companies of the broad- market Ocean Tomo 300® Patent Index, as determined by the price-to-book ratio, and is diversified across market capitalization. It is the industry’s first value index based on the value of intellectual property and represents a portfolio of 60 companies with the highest innovation ratio (i.e., patent maintenance value relative to book value). Source
This index also outperforms the Russel 1000 and the S&P 500.
Their intellectual property includes in-house developed custom MEMS, custom optics, proprietary digital and analog silicon chips, embedded real-time firmware and software, manufacturing processes, custom automation and strategic partnerships that allow them to operate in a sleek model.
MicroVision patents and products therefore serve many future markets:
Whoever has the MicroVision technology may be able to eliminate the competition or demand license fees from them. Or the other way around: Whoever does not buy the technology can be excluded from markets. Therefore, bidding competition may arise to gain access to the market. Whoever has the best LiDAR system for cars will also be able to supply other components and software to car manufacturers. The car manufacturer who has the best LiDAR system has a big advantage over the competition.

All Notable Competition: Velodyne LiDAR, Luminar, Sense Photonics, Robosense, Valeo, SureStar
MicroVision: founded in 1993
Velodyne Lidar VLDR: founded in 1983, but as a subwoofer company 😂 and only got into LiDAR in 2005
LAZR: founded in 2012
Non-Public:
Valeo: Founded in 1998
Robosense: Founded in 2014
SureStar: Founded in 2005
Basically, MVIS is all these other companies' daddy. They have been working on LiDAR for almost 30 years and it shows, just imagine what they will be able to develop in a few years with more funding.
https://preview.redd.it/eh5csdcz9dh61.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=068fe6f5508e693ace5c6c56d4d2a5d9294836fb
Insider Activity
MicroVision is very transparent with its inner workings of the company, you can easily reach out to them on their website under "Investors." One of many conferences held with Vice President David Westgor, investor relations manager Dave Allen, and investors of MVIS revealed:
As to the employee incentive plan, Steve Holt made the point that in his 7 years of experience (I think it was) with MVIS, NO EMPLOYEE had actually ever cashed out in the money options.
Case in point, on December 1s, 2020, the day after she joined the team, Judith Curran was paid with 3 million dollars worth of $3 calls expiring in 2022, and she has not cashed out.
On Yahoo it reports that the last insider sale was in 2014.

Institutional Investments
For reasons stated earlier, institutions have been late to the game on this one, but now are starting to get on the rocket ship before it takes off. MVIS is now the largest holding in the S&P Kensho Moonshots Index, (KMOONP), which is literally an ETF of stocks that are going go the moon 🌙 . Blackrock purchased 2.44 million shares on December 31, 2020. Vanguard purchased 6.61 million shares on the same day.

Recent Events
MVIS's stagnation really started to break on December 1st 2020, with MVIS when former Ford Executive Judith Curran was added to MVIS's board of directors.
Curran is an accomplished senior automotive executive with over 30 years of experience in vehicle program, engineering and technology leadership. Curran has a strong record of leading innovation at Ford Motor Company where she served in a number of executive positions including Director of Technology Strategy, where she developed the cross-vehicle global strategy for key new technologies including assisted driving, infotainment, new electrical architectures, and connectivity.
Doesn't take a genius to figure out they were about to ride the EV wave, and were appointing the right people to be poised to do so.
Eight days later on December 8th 2020, the US Congress approved approximately $700M for the roll-out of IVAS in 2021.
7 days after that on December 15th, MVIS broke $4 for the first time in nine years.
December 29, 2020: MicroVision Announces $13 Million At-the-Market Equity Facility (this is huge for improving balance sheet and attracting hedge funds/institutional ownership)
So far, our team remains on track to complete our Long Range Lidar sensor sample in April 2021. We believe this financing will further solidify our balance sheet as we remain committed to pursuing strategic alternatives and establishing value for our shareholders,” said Sumit Sharma, MicroVision Chief Executive Officer. “We expect a stronger balance sheet will provide the Company with runway through 2021 and into the first quarter of 2022 to enable us to continue development of our lidar sensor while pursuing strategic alternatives,” said Steve Holt, MicroVision Chief Financial Officer.
December 31: Vanguard adds 6.6 million shares, Blackrock adds adds 2.4.
January 20, 2021: Apple CEO Tim Cook says Augmented Reality is the "Next Big Thing."
Feb 2, 2021 YooToob stock analyst Deadnsyde covers(YT links aren't allowed apparently) MVIS, causing the beginning of a large breakout past $8.
Feb 4: MicroVision granted patent (WSB bot is blocking source from being posted- thinks it contains a ticker), essentially lidar on a chip, this patent in particular is huge. (solid state lidar)
Feb 10: Cramer mentions MVIS, says LIDAR is one of three battlegrounds for EV competition.
Feb 10 after hours: MVIS announces Progress on Automotive Long Range LiDAR, saying
“We expect MicroVision’s Long Range Lidar Sensor, (LRL Sensor) which has been in development for over two years, to meet or exceed requirements established by OEMs for autonomous safety and autonomous driving features,” said Sumit Sharma, Chief Executive Officer of MicroVision.
Feb 11: Volkswagen and Microsoft team up on automated driving (potential for MVIS to get involved).

Talent at MicroVision
Sumit Sharma became the CEO in February of 2020, he is a mechanical engineer that has been with MVIS for five years after having been the head of operations at Google Project Glass, and working for Motorola and Jawbone.
Dr. Mark Spitzer is on the board of directors having previously worked at Google X, Darpa, Kopin and having founded Myvu and Photonic Glass.
Judy Curran joined the board this year after spending 30 years at Ford, where she was the Director of Technical Strategy. She is also the Head of Global Automotive Strategy for Ansys, a simulation software company that works with ADAS systems.

Technical analysis
Resistance at 46.75, 123. 39, and 204. 23, could turn to supports.
Moving Average Analysis:
On February 28, 2020, Market Cap of PLUG was 1.32B, on this date the 120 day MA touches the 8y moving average. 11 months later, PLUG has a market cap of 33.79B, an increase of 2459%.
On September 3, 2020, Market Cap of MVIS was 0.21B, on this date 120 day MA touches the 8y moving average. 5 months later, MVIS has a market cap of 2.77B an increase of 1219%.
6 months forward price target: $34.348B

Conclusion/Valuation/TLDR
LAZR is currently valued at 12.22B
VLDR at 3.92B
MVIS at 2.77B
MicroVision offers a quantitatively much higher performance product than both of its competitor companies. Because of their lack of focus on augmented reality technologies, competitors are not likely to have a future in the markets of smart glasses, healthcare, engineering, military equipment, GPS safety, entertainment, and interactive projectors. They are involved in an industry that is currently at an inflection point, due to grow massively in the near future. Their high number of extremely advanced patents will bring in significant revenue for the company in the coming years. I have never seen a company with such low insider selling, that the last case of a sale was in 2014. Institutional investors are piling in as MicroVision's balance sheet improves and they near the April LRL sensor test date, which has a high likelihood of being a success. I think this stock should currently be valued at 20 Billion dollars, taking all of this into account, and expect it to rise drastically over the next few years.
This is not financial advice, I am not a financial advisor, do your own research before believing some retard on the internet. Positions: 300 shares, $19 call 5/21, $20 call 3/19, $31 call 2/19(FD), $28 call 2/19, $24 call 2/19.
submitted by BigBlackWifey to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

20 Lessons from Elon Musk on How to Win

While some of these lessons might seem obvious, applying them to our lives on a consistent basis requires constant reminders and a lifetime of practice. Even Elon Musk probably breaks many of these rules himself. If we all adhered to the following 20 best practices on a regular basis, we'd possibly all be 10x more successful than wherever it is we are...
  1. Listen carefully to the critics to hear what they have to say, but don’t always think that they happen to be right! Musk: “When Henry Ford made cheap, reliable cars, people said, ‘Nah, what’s wrong with a horse?’ That was a huge bet he made, and it worked.”
  2. Don’t continue doubling down on a solution that isn’t working. The definition of insanity is repeating the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome. Musk: “Don’t delude yourself into thinking something’s working when it’s not, or you’re gonna get fixated on a bad solution.”
  3. Make sure you’re surrounded by people you enjoy being with…of course, if it is within your control. If the workplace becomes toxic, leave it. Or try to work with others on the team to develop a more pleasant work environment Musk: “It’s very important to like the people you work with, otherwise life [and] your job is gonna be quite miserable.”
  4. Learn from the successes and failures of others. Musk: “You have to say, ‘Well, why did it succeed where others did not?”
  5. Think about solutions that are 10x better than anything else out there. A slight improvement is not good enough to achieve rapid adoption and behavior change. Musk: “You shouldn’t do things differently just because they’re different. They need to be… better.”
  6. Think about all the pieces of the puzzle and focus on each of the individual puzzle pieces without neglecting the others. This is an ongoing effort of personal tug of war between various priorities and your time. Never forget that time is your most valuable asset. Musk: “If you’re trying to create a company, it’s like baking a cake. You have to have all the ingredients in the right proportion.”
  7. Build the right team or join the right team; it’s often much more important to achieving success than the product itself. Musk: “Starting and growing a business is as much about the innovation, drive, and determination of the people behind it as the product they sell.”
  8. Ignore the resume. Think about a teammate’s character as much, if not more, than their specific technical skills. Musk: “My biggest mistake is probably weighing too much on someone’s talent and not [enough on] someone’s personality. I think it matters [a lot] whether someone has a good heart.”
  9. Be a good person; whether you think you’re an example or not, you are, particularly in a work environment. Many people watch and observe your behavior, even if you’re not Elon Musk. Be a shining example to your teammates and colleagues by following the simple Golden Rule of doing to others what you would want done to you. Integrity matters. Musk: “We have a strict ‘no-assholes policy’ at SpaceX.”
  10. Learn how to tolerate pain. A lot of pain. The short and medium-term horizons are often loaded with obstacles and landmines. Beware of them, and attempt to step around or disarm the landmines wherever possible. If your leg is blown off, figuratively speaking, of course, realize that you’re still alive and continue moving forward. Learn, iterate, and do better the next time in avoiding those landmines or disarming them altogether. Musk: “Being an entrepreneur is like eating glass and staring into the abyss of death.”
  11. Pursue what makes you happy, not only in work, but outside work. Try new hobbies. Join new meetup groups. Try learning a new skill. Start a side-hustle project that you’re passionate about that could someday become a great company. Musk: “People should pursue what they’re passionate about. That will make them happier than pretty much anything else.”
  12. After carefully planning a course of action and deciding that you’re going to do something, go all-in. Pour 110% of your energy into achieving the carefully thought-out objective. Musk: “What makes innovative thinking happen?… I think it’s really a mindset. You have to decide.”
  13. If you believe strongly enough in something, pursue it. If things don’t work out initially (as they seldom do), don’t abandon too quickly. See point # 19 below. Musk: “When something is important enough, you do it even if the odds are not in your favor.”
  14. Try to think positive, even when things are down and remind yourself of the old proverb: “this too shall pass.” It’s often in pits of darkness that we can see light at the end of the tunnel. Musk: “If you get up in the morning and think the future is going to be better, it is a bright day. Otherwise, it’s not.”
  15. Listen to criticism. Ask for feedback, including negative feedback. Absorb it. Learn from it. Apply criticism that is relevant and discard the balance. Musk: “Really pay attention to negative feedback and solicit it, particularly from friends. … Hardly anyone does that, and it’s incredibly helpful.”
  16. Get stuff done that will have a lasting impact on your community, environment and the world (ie no chasing quick $). Do it specifically to make a difference in the lives of those around you and the reward will be significant and generous in overall well-being, and might even bring financial success (which is only one small component of overall success in life). Musk: “I don’t create companies for the sake of creating companies, but to get things done.”
  17. Do not spend your entire life thinking about ways things can fail. Get out there and do it. If it doesn’t work, iterate, and then try again. Iterate again. And again. Most people spend their days optimizing for every possible downside scenario. This obsessive down-size planning ties up mental resources to think creatively and outside of the box to get it done. You should of course analyze the problem or deal at hand and solicit input from others on downside scenarios. Don’t let perfection stand in the way of bringing something good to market. You can always make it better over time. A corollary to this rule for entrepreneurs is to make the product or idea real and tangible as fast as possible. This will help in the feedback loop process discussed in rule #15 earlier and #18 below. Musk: “There’s a tremendous bias against taking risks. Everyone is [always/frequently] trying to optimize their ass-covering.”
  18. Develop a core group of advisors who will serve as a key part of your constant feedback loop (along with critics – Rule #15 – and initial customers – Rule #17). This core group of trusted advisors could be close friends, family members or even members of your community who know you well enough to offer meaningful advice. Reach out to these advisors often and consistently. Musk: “I think it’s very important to have a feedback loop, where you’re constantly thinking about what you’ve done and how you could be doing it better.”
  19. Have grit. Do not give up. Most importantly, have patience. It’s one of the hardest lessons of an entrepreneur since entrepreneurs often want results quickly. Musk: “Persistence is very important. You should not give up unless you are forced to give up.”
  20. Embrace change. Getting cozy and comfortable is easy. Sometimes it’s the right thing to do. But oftentimes, refusing to accept the inevitable change will stunt your own growth and path in life, whether in the personal or professional domain, and prevent you from achieving lasting success. Musk: “Some people don’t like change, but you need to embrace change [especially] if the alternative is [a] disaster.”
submitted by henry_gindt to Entrepreneur [link] [comments]

GME - EndGame Part 2: Cohen, Market Cap, Potential Investors

Hello again folks. This is an extension of my DD last week in which I shared some research on short positions, GME’s debt, and some speculation on institutional investing. Since that post, GME is up 75% and there’s been lots of good bullish / bearish DD on the short term.
In this post, I’m going to cover 3 topics, focusing on the mid-to-long term prospects for GME: 1) Cohen, 2) GME’s market cap potential, and 3) potential investors that could continue to pile in.
TL:DR; You need to think about GME differently. Not as a trader. Not as an investor. You need to think like a venture capitalist. This is an unprecedented opportunity, and the first time I’ve gone all-in - I’m more bullish now than when the stock was trading sub $15. If you’re in GME you need to get in with conviction otherwise you’re going to lose by selling when it drops.

Quick aside - my history and positions:

I’ve been a passive investor for many years. This is literally the first time I’ve taken an interest in becoming an active investor. I opened an RH account in August to start speculating on GME. My first post called out some cheap lottery plays that took my speculating account from $5K - $20K in 3 weeks. I’ve since posted a few times on GME, even trying to tell you to buy the post-earnings dip, and added more to my active trading accounts. I’ve taken $10K -> $130K on RH and $230K -> $480K in IBKR since slowly adding to GME since September.
UPDATE: I have deleted my positions in this post - will explain why in my next post. I'm still holding.
All that being said, thus far I’ve been thinking about GME as a trade - trying to get in at the lowest cost I could for the maximum upside on a near-term exit, but I’ve switched completely into thinking of GME is a ridiculously asymmetric investment with massive potential in the next 2-3 year timeframe - even at $35. Even at $45, $50, $60. That’s why I added roughly 2500 shares on Friday at around $36 despite adding very cautiously when GME was below $20. I’m also completely all-in on RH with options (mostly deep ITM, a few fds) - $0 buying power left.
Grab a drink, sit down. Let me tell you why I’ve gotten more aggressive, and probably why you shouldn’t worry about what price you pay right now, as long as you’re willing to believe and hold.

About Cohen (and friends)

From the recent 8K about the board changes (which you should definitely read if you’re putting serious money in):
As part of the Agreement, RC Ventures has agreed to customary standstill provisions*, which provide that from the date of the Agreement until the earlier of (a) the date that is 30 calendar days prior to the deadline for the submission of director nominations by stockholders for the Company’s* 2022 annual meeting of stockholders and (b) the date that is 120 days prior to the first anniversary of the 2021 Annual Meeting (such period, the “Standstill Period”), RC Ventures will not, among other things: (i) acquire beneficial ownership in, or aggregate economic exposure to, directly or indirectly, more than 19.9% of the Company’s outstanding common stock; (ii) make any proposal for consideration by stockholders at any annual or special meeting of stockholders of the Company; (iii) make any offer or proposal with respect to any extraordinary transactions; or (iv) seek, alone or in concert with others, the appointment, election or removal of any directors in opposition to any recommendation of the Board, in each case as further described in the Agreement. As part of the Agreement, the Company has permitted RC Ventures to acquire, whether in a single transaction or multiple transactions from time to time, additional shares of the Company’s common stock to the extent such acquisitions would result in RC Ventures having beneficial ownership of less than 20.0% of the outstanding shares, without triggering the restrictions that would otherwise be imposed under Section 203 of the Delaware General Corporation Law (the “DGCL”), and RC Ventures has agreed that upon acquiring beneficial ownership 20.0% or more of the outstanding shares of the Company’s common stock, the restrictions under Section 203 of the DGCL would apply to a potential business combination with RC Ventures as an “interested stockholder” (as defined in Section 203 of the DGCL).
This is critical: This agreement was the result of a negotiation between Cohen and the existing board.
  1. After his activist letter calling out the board and then 13D buy after the earnings dip rocketed the stock up from 12 -> 20, it was clear to everyone that RC was the reason GME’s stock was heading up. The GME board was afraid of a hostile takeover / losing their jobs. This agreement allowed Cohen and 2 others on the board as long as he didn’t attempt a hostile takeover.
  2. Cohen wants it all. In the activist letter, he publicly said “no” to just one board seat. He then publicly bought more as soon as Sherman threatened a shelf offering to dilute him below 10%.
In addition to getting added to the board, Cohen brought along 2 execs who built Chewy with him:
He’s not fucking around folks. He wants to build another Chewy, and he’s bringing the people who helped him do it the first time to do it again.
As a result of the agreement, he’s limited to buying up to 20% of shares until 2022. Why not 13%? Simple - Cohen wants the option to buy more. He’s not happy with a single board seat; he’s not going to settle for simply getting added to the board; and he’s not going to settle for 13% ownership.
Also, remember that Alan and Jim have 💲 to buy in as well. I haven't seen their holdings yet. Their time is worth more than their money and they've already decided to put their time in.

Cohen is not an exec - he’s a founder with an all-in mentality

Go read this bloomberg Cohen interview to understand his mindset.
  1. Cohen himself is an all-in person. Key quote:
    1. “When I find things I have a lot of conviction in, I go all-in*.”*
    2. Cohen is a founder that has gone through the successful creation of a startup. When you are startup founder, most of your NW is tied to equity in your company. You are trained to have skin in the game. You’re not allowed to think you have a safety net. You give up years of your life and bet everything because you have to believe in what you’re doing. Founders typically have 30-50% ownership of their company.
    3. “Cohen uses the word “conviction” a lot. He says it’s something he learned from his father, who ran a glassware importing business in Montreal where Cohen grew up. “He taught me how to block the noise from the masses,” says Cohen. “To have a point of view and have conviction and not waver.”
  2. He only sold Chewy rather taking it to IPO because of his Dad’s health. He cut his entrepreneurial career short and he’s itching to get back in.
  3. Cohen sold Chewy for $3.35B, with estimates stating he personally walked away with about $600M after taxes.
  4. Cohen has a lot of capital to buy more. After selling Chewy, he went all-in on Apple & WFC, which as of June was up 40%.
    1. “ Cohen says his portfolio, when including dividends and a few other stock holdings, has returned more than 40% over the past 3 years, beating the market.”
    2. Aapl was his largest holding, and is up another 50% since June 5 when the Bloomberg article was published.
    3. Cohen lives in FL - with no income or capital gains for individuals, unlike other founders who live in CA which taxes all cap gains as ordinary income.
    4. I’m going to estimate his net worth (minus his GME holdings) is around $800M-$1B.
  5. Cohen’s 9,001,000 (it’s over 9000! 🐲🏐) shares have thus far been purchased at something like an average of $12/share, for a total investment of around $110M.
So Cohen has put in $110M out of his $1B into GME. Does that sound like he’s all-in? Absolutely fucking not. Cohen’s going to buy up to the max he can this year (20%), likely by selling some other holdings prior to cap gains tax law changes. He can add more next year after the standstill period is done.

What will lead to Cohen’s next purchase of GME

Thus far, every RC purchase has been about sending a message.
  1. Prior to Q3 earnings, his purchases were signaling an intent to the board that he was serious about wanting to get involved. He also rubbed it in their faces that the stock price was largely appreciating because of him. From the activist letter:
    1. “We recognize that the Board may feel it is insulated from stockholder scrutiny after adding new directors this past spring and seeing a recent stock price uptick (which only came on the heels of RC Ventures filing its 13D)” (what a fucking burn).
  2. If there was any doubt about RC’s impact on the stock price, it was put to rest after Q3’s earnings, where the current leadership’s hubris and threat of diluting RC led to a drop of almost 30%. RC then bought the dip, shoved it in their faces, and the market GME again rocketing GME to 20 in a massive post-earnings recovery. Message sent again - “The market wants me. Let me the fuck in.”
  3. Now that Cohen and the Chewy folks are on the board, he’s going to angle for CEO. He’s not looking to advise GME. He wants to go all-in, to run GME. He’s holding the optionality of buying more based on the success of his attempt to take over GME through non-hostile means.
If you see Cohen buy more GME, he’s sending another message. This time it’s because it’s clear to him he’s going to be CEO and wants to max his skin in the game. If you see Cohen buy, it’s “CEO talks going well” - you fucking buy.

GME’s market cap potential

  1. Cohen sees a $200BN+ total addressable market cap for gaming by 2023. For contrast, Chewy was playing in the pet food/supplies market, which has a total addressable market (TAM) of under $50BN annually. GME’s potential is at base 4x that of Chewy. This does not even account for the pc gaming hardware market, which is another $35BN+.
  2. Chewy’s market cap is $44BN on $6BN of annual revenue.
  3. Chewy’s Q3 quarterly income was up 45% YoY. While GME’s quarterly income was down YoY, its e-commerce revenue was up 257% trouncing Chewy’s growth rate.
  4. GME’s Q4 early sales preview reported 300% E-commerce growth and annual run-rate of $5BN
In other words, even if you give GME’s physical locations no value, GME’s ecommerce business is growing 5x faster than Chewy and already has 75% of online revenue.
Summary: Chewy is priced > 7X times its annual total revenue. GME is priced at .45 its annual ecommerce revenue, despite GME having 5-6 greater TAM and growing its ecommerce business 5X as fast Chewy.
What. The. Fuck.
I’ve never seen a stock more mispriced.
People talking about $100 price targets are suffering from a fucking lack of imagination.
Even if you completely discount
  1. GME’s physical business
  2. its rev sharing partnership with MSFT
  3. its 5x faster growth and 5x TAM
and give GME the same P/S multiple that Chewy has on its ecommerce business, that puts GME currently at a fair market cap above $35BN. That means GME should be at least $500/share.
In pictures:

Comparing Ecommerce Revenue vs Market cap on Chewy vs GME today

Showing what the fair market value Market Cap of GME would be with Chewy's P/S

Fair Market Value (using comps) of GME is at least $500/share.
$35/share is a fucking steal. Who cares about the short-term dips as shorts try to weasel themselves out of their positions. The market will eventually wake up to this sleeping beast. In a year you’re not going to care if you got in at 4, 12, 20, 35, or 50. You’re going to only care if you’re in or not.

Potential Investors

An asset is only worth what someone else is willing to pay for it, right? So are the potential buyers of this growing company?
Here’s a list in decreasing order of likelihood.
  1. Elon (Least likely, completely improbable, but cataclysmic event). Elon hates shorts. Elon, with TSLA, went through the pain that GME is going through. TSLA almost went bankrupt because shorts were pushing the price down so it was difficult to raise the cash they needed to survive. Sound familiar? Elon’s wealth swings more in a day than GME is worth in entirety. Elon could buy all the fucking float of GME with what he makes in 8 hours. One call from fellow entrepreneur and aspiring twitter-meme-god would absolutely wreck the game.
    1. If you are short gamestop, you are one meme purchase by the richest man in the world away from a fucking cataclysmic event. "Hey son, I heard you like games. So I bought you gamestop. All of it." 🚀
  2. Buffett (More likely, still improbable). I’m actually amazed that while Buffett & co were lamenting that there are no interesting stocks to invest in and moving to cash, that they absolutely missed the boat on GME while it was at its lows. It’s a complete value play right up his alley (in a business he can understand). My only hypothesis here is that the market cap is too small and he could not make a meaningful investment. Once GME grows to a more respectable market cap ($10b+) I can see Buffett stepping in and making an investment.
  3. Cohen’s connections. (Highly likely if Cohen is CEO). This is the big one. And I mean absolutely nail in the coffin re-pricing of GME for the foreseeable future. Go read this Harvard Business Review piece on Cohen specifically on how Cohen puts importance on raising money and the people that backed him.
    1. Look, I’ve started a startup before in the valley (unsuccessfully unfortunately). However, you don’t start a company without making a shit-ton of venture capitalist & angel investor connections. Cohen has stated that when pitching Chewy he was rejected by over 100 investors. I can absolutely-fucking-guarantee you that every single one of them remembers their mistake and would not miss the opportunity to invest in Cohen again. And don’t forget all of the investors who DID invest with Cohen and reaped the benefits with Chewy. While venture capitalists don’t generally make investments in public equities, this is a truly unique situation. Cohen is treating this like a rebirth, a new venture bootstrapped from GME’s bones. If VCs as a firm will not invest, you can bet your ass that those individuals will throw their personal money at Cohen. However this only happens if he’s CEO. As soon as he’s CEO, a single long weekend trip to the valley might mean 100+ investor meetings with the strategic pitch.
      1. My biggest fear here is that VCs/PE band to take the company private at some small multiple (2-3x) and then reap the benefits while Cohen turns the company around only to re-list it to us 5 years down the road at 30X the valuation.
    2. Thus far, it’s been us retail retards vs the wall street shorts. HFs shorting this thing have the advantage in both tactics and capital. However, if Silicon Valley money starts pouring money into this the game is over. You cannot believe the amount of money that gets thrown into startups with 90% of it burning up into thin air. $3B market cap? That’s nothing. Folks with Silicon Valley money & risk tolerance would have no problem betting on a serial entrepreneur making something amazing out of a company that already has a customer base, revenue, distribution - all in the same business (e-commerce) the entrepreneur already proved themselves in.
  4. You, and every other retard that believes. Look, this was my point at the beginning. You need to think like a VC here. VCs are the ultimate YOLO autists making million dollar bets and not seeing a penny of it for years. They are the ultimate 💎✋🤚. You need to decide if you have conviction for the long term and then buy in. 💎✋🤚 doesn’t mean selling at $100. It doesn’t means selling at $200. It means not selling at all this year no matter the price, and at least until you learn for sure whether Cohen is the new CEO. It means believing so hard that you 20-100X your investment in 2 years when the market wakes up to the ridiculous mispricing.
    1. Remember that if Cohen is elected CEO he can (and likely will) buy more than a 20% stake in 2022.
    2. Remember Buffett’s actual quote: "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."
I’ve put every dollar I can into shares in IBKR, minus some April calls. I hold no covered calls except for some call spreads I had in RH prior to recent bump. I have April calls because I will put more cash into GME after taxes are done, and I know much cash I have to use. Calls let me cap the price I would have to pay now.
This is personal research. Do your own DD.
A wiser investor than me gave the advice of “Don’t aim to maximise profit, minimize regret.” If you’re not in GME yet, ask yourself how you would truly feel if what everyone here is saying panned out to be true, and you weren’t participating.
Oh, and of course: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Update 1: I'm still holding today, but I realized I made a pretty big mistake on the ecommerce revenue analysis. GME's 2019 e-commerce revenue was 1.35B (not 1.35B for the quarter), so divide my price target by 4 - $125/share or $8B market cap.
submitted by FatAspirations to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

$PLTR DD have fun :)

$PLTR DD have fun :)
Hello fellow retards
I know these are difficult times for this sub and it’s almost impossible to post something solid which is not about the current meme stocks.
Instead of jerking to some porn i did some research on PLTR and want to share my DD with you. This might be a longer text for your love dopamine level so maybe you should grab some your Adderall before.
The following text might you give your eyes aids since English isn’t my native language. I will try my best.
Palantir as a Company – the beginnings
PLTR was founded by some people and one of them is Peter Thiel who worked alongside with our holy papa Elon at PayPal. As a payment-service they had concerns about money laundering and founded PLTR to tackle this issue early. The CIA also funded PLTR (they are always funding stuff like this – Siri as example). This actually might be the reason why people think that PLTR is a company which aggregates data and do data analysis for the government….but this is not accurate and not correct at all if you see the big picture. I will explain this point later.
You retard still reading? Nice here some rocket emoji’s to pump your dopamine and keep you happy.
Let’s start with the DD
First of all my POV is looking for a midterm to long term investment in PLTR. My valuation considers PLTRs current state and predicting from now on for the next few years.

  • 1. The Management
Before I start with the product I rather start with the management. You can sell the nicest thing in the world. I can guarantee you that the product definitely won’t be considered as the nicest thing after a while if you have a shitty management (Intel). With Peter Thiel on the leaderboard we got a competent asshole and CEO is Alex carp (co-founder) Peter Thiel is well known and Alex Karp is one of us. He yolod his heritage into some business and become a chad. Seriously tho, I trust Peter and if Peter holds on Alex since Decades so do I. Peter proved so many times how cunning he is and showed how to pick adapt problems early and create solutions.

  • 2. PLTR Business model/ products
Before we understand how important PLTRs products are we have to understand that we are simpeltons who don’t have any business with PLTRs. We create data. We don’t fuck with it. We creating with using our phones or working in the office. Only a few of us may working with accumulated big data. PLTRs customers’ base isn’t neighbor Joe or Aunt Nancy. The products they offer are not even for midcap companies they are more designed for whole industries and governments. That’s the reason why their products aren’t so tangible for many people.
PLTR basically offers systems to big companies/governments which import their data into these systems. PLTR doesn’t sends workers to the client to collect data and analyse it. They sell platforms. They got 2 Products called “Gotham” and “Foundry” You may think wtf is this guy talking about? Let me explain it in 2 examples:
First example is Syria with Gotham. It was impossible in the country to know who the good guys are and who the bad ones are. I know u muricans only know yourself and the rest of the world is the “rest of the world” for you. But this wasn’t so simple in Syria you had many factions with different intentions and some of them were allies and some of them were enemies. The lack of information or the ability of recognizing and sorting these information’s are crucial in a war. PLTR solved the struggle with creating a map which provided resilient information for the marines so they can operate safely. Civil problems over there could also be fixed.
https://www.mercurynews.com/2016/10/04/palantir-using-big-data-to-solve-big-humanitarian-crises/
Actually what the John Hopkins University does with the covid numbers and the map, is some sort of what PLTR offering with their solutions. There are rumors that the tracking of Covid and the vaccination will be done by PLTR.
In their S1 Form PLTR describes it this way
“Gotham, our first software platform, was constructed for analysts at defense and intelligence agencies. They were hunting for needles not in one, but in thousands of haystacks. And they did not have the software they needed to do their jobs. In Afghanistan and Iraq, soldiers were mapping networks of insurgents and makers of roadside bombs by hand. Gotham enables users to identify patterns hidden deep within datasets, ranging from signals intelligence sources to reports from confidential informants, and helps U.S. and allied military personnel find what they are looking for.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1321655/000119312520230013/d904406ds1.htm#rom904406_11
The second example is about “Foundry” and it’s directly from the S1 File of PLTR (page 121)
“An Airbus A350, for example, has five million parts and is built by hundreds of teams that are spread across four countries and more than eight factories. Companies routinely struggle to manage let alone make sense of the data involved in large projects. Foundry was built for them. The platform transforms the ways in which organizations interact with information by creating a central operating system for their data.”
Both of these systems solving big issues with less effort. The arms industry as example would took billions for drones and stuff in Syria for the same job. The important fact is that PLTR does not spend so much resources for new clients they only have to provide access and support for their services and the client feeding the “machine” with data.
The key point is to understand that PLTR benefits very huge from economy of scales. This is very important since their costs for additional revenue is basically flat while the profits growing exorbitant with new customers. They offer a software and platforms and not kind of services where they need man power. All they do is working on their platforms and improving it.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-palantir-ipo-breakingviews-idUSKCN26E3I2

  • 3. PLTRs big issue during the last decade
Peter Thiel was a great supporter of Trump and funded his elections campaign. The market thought that when trump wins then PLTR will get all the government (especially military) contracts.
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/10/technology/peter-thiel-bet-donald-trump-wins-big.html
But this didn’t happened. Peter got cucked by the huge authority apparatus in pentagon. These dudes loves bureaucracy and they do it for a good reason. If you retire from your job in pentagon you usually get a high paid luxurious position at Lockheed, Raytheon or Bae Systems to make additional free money for your retirement. Many thousand people working in pentagon just to select and buy stuff for the government. They spending billions of dollars for purchases and then PLTR came around and said like „look guys we can do this job for a few millions instead billions“. Of course the arms industry was pissed and the pentagon boomers helped them out. PLTR got constantly scammed from boomers and didn’t get the contracts. This was also the „swamp „trump was talking about.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-28/inside-palantir-s-war-with-the-u-s-army
https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2017/03/27/palantir-trump-army-military-procurement.html

https://preview.redd.it/qd6q5xyfi4h61.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ed75e73d7eefbd35c97f50ded4d7cda9e6222c25
A fun fact to this matter: Before James Mattis got summoned as the Defense Secretary of the USA he was a general in Afghanistan. He ordered services from PLTR despite the fact the pentagon was against it. But the marines praised PLTRs software and valued it over the trash they used to know from the defense/arms industry.
https://www.military.com/defensetech/2013/07/01/special-forces-marines-embrace-palantir-software
Even with a James Mattis as the defense secretary, trump as president and regardless that PLTR does it better and cheaper than the arms industry, it wasn’t possible for PLTR to get the government contracts.
https://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/11/palantir-defense-jim-mattis-inner-circle-239373
https://fortune.com/longform/palantir-pentagon-trump/
How it’s ended? Well Peter’s wife doesn’t have a boyfriend because Peter is the fucking boyfriend of their wifes. All ended at the court and PLTR won. All this injustice ended at the court. The judgements on these cases are true circuit breakers for PLTR. Not only because PLTR spent shit tons of money for law suits. The lawsuits were perfect uppercut hits on the arms industry and they ended some fraudulent behaviors and „best practices „in the government
https://www.defensenews.com/land/2016/10/31/judge-rules-in-favor-of-palantir-in-lawsuit-against-us-army/
https://www.defensenews.com/land/2019/03/29/palantir-who-successfully-sued-the-army-just-won-a-major-army-contract/
PLTR will profit from a Biden who wants to decrease the military expenditures. They will get the job done and at the same time the costs will go down. With the recent judgements the door looks open
.
  • 4. Valuation problems
I could spam some multiplication on revenue or even a DCF but I think it’s not necessary. Expect the costs of research and development (maybe marketing) the costs of PLTR stood mostly flat in the last quarters. It’s a growth stock and the pricing is mostly in the perspective of PLTR. This is actually all we need to know that the revenue increases while the costs staying mostly flat. Check out the balance sheets at page 12 on the S Form 1.
Let’s talk about the market. The whole market seems overpriced but it isn’t tbh. Due to the low cost of capital there is no alternative than to throwing your money on stocks or on real estate. There is nothing with a solid interest rate around (not even in emerging markets). At the stock exchange like in 70s, the companies had to offer a return, a perspective which should be more attractive as putting your money on a saving account with 8% interests without risks. These times are gone since the 2000s. So before people discuss insane valuation they should check out the fiscal and economical policies.
Now back to PLTR and why the price is difficult to set (cheap imo). First of all PLTR did a direct listing without an investment bank for their share offerings. Its lacking of the valuation which they usually would get through such a process.
PLTR wanted to do IPO with Morgan Stanley but it was mess.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-04/morgan-stanley-s-long-romance-of-palantir-pays-off-as-ipo-nears
Morgan Stanley proved themselves many times as stubborn communists when it comes to valuations. I mean you guys remember their disgusting price targets for tesla like 100$ post split or stuff like that.
These guys are very focused on numbers and I know it’s difficult to price in the potential and perspectives. But you can’t ignore these things for a fundamental valuation. If you want to consider these things in the price you have to understand the business of the company.
This ended that one team at Morgan Stanley valuated PLTR with 5 billion while another team thought they worth 40 billion.
https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2018/11/14/palantir-ipo-valuation-morgan-stanley.html
How is this difference possible and why is this happening? Because people don’t understand what they are valuating. This happened a lot in the last decade because the decision makers in these banks and many analyst don’t have any idea which metrics they should use on companies like that. They are using the metrics from classical industries on new business. They freaked out when Facebook was valued with 100 billion as IPO. Same with Twitter and in the last years it was Tesla. They said apple going to tank every damn year in the last decade. I honor Warren Buffet so much since he has the dignity to realize that he don’t understands something but at the same time he sees the potential and the trend. That’s why he hired 2 Chads who bought Snowflake for him. The transformation and the generation change didn’t happened yet. That’s why they try to use the metrics from Caterpillar on Tesla.
Guys the whole market is mooning with the cheap liquidity. Pennystocks and zombie companies transforming into billion dollar market cap companies. Facebook as IPO had a market cap of 104 billion back in 2012. At that time it wasn’t possible for Facebook to monetize their users with selling ads. They just paid 100 billion for the potential in more difficult market conditions.
Look at the IPOs like doordash, Bumble. I’m not going to call this a bubble. Just check out their business cases and use the metrics. Maybe its easier for people to understand Bumble and Doordash…
On page 12 of the S1 (balance sheet) Form you can already see the huge positive trends in PLTRs revenue and their costs. All this without all the positive events and contracts PLTR recently got.
PLTRs valuation is difficult and I think it’s miscalculated by pessimistic communist who don’t understand that their products are game changers for industries, governments and defense forces. Because of these points I think there is huge price potential for PLTR.

  • 5. Risks for PLTR
Despite the general market risks PLTR mentions at page 29 of the S1 Form the competitors as the main risk: “We face intense competition in our markets, and we may lack sufficient financial or other resources to maintain or improve our competitive position.” The S1 Form didn’t aged well. Actually I don’t think that PLTR would have any trouble with offering new shares. Also with Peter Thiel as one of the founders the financial side should be stable.
As PLTR competitor people use to mention IBM. The boomers from IBM already surrendered with their Windows95 computers and decided to cooperate. The biggest threat would be big tech with big money like AMZN or APPL. You all now the stories about APPL and Spotify or AMZN and all the merchants. Even if the big players would step into PLTR markets it would be difficult for them since PLTRs products doesn’t rely on an Amazon store or on apple devices. PLTR is years ahead with their products.
I think the greatest risk (still) are the boomerish arms industry and all the boomers in pentagon and other authorities.
There are very corrupt infrastructures when it comes to decision making and assigning contracts. People fear changes but they can’t avoid the changes. With the recent judgements we can see a turn on the tables but the transformation will still take time. It’s a circuit breaker with an avalanche effect.
The risk factors on page 16 on the S1 form mostly aren’t relevant anymore. People complained that PLTR wasn’t profitable for 18 years. Well PLTR was never designed to be profitable and Alex Karp once said “love us or leave us alone”.
https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2020/09/09/palantir-ceo-makes-livestreamed-pitch-to-investors.html
But even this changed recently. PLTR became profitable in 2020 with 130,000,000§. Now the same people complaining about how high the stock price compared to the profits. Well just you wait.

  • 6. Conclusion and Outlook
If you still reading I have to admit that this was a lot text and i am sorry again about the lingo. Let’s connect the dots and bring this information to a point
  1. The boomer coalition in the pentagon and in the arms industry is taken down by PLTR. They will able to get the governments contracts and the classic arms/defense industry is no match for PLTR products. The judgements of lawsuits were catalyst and the effects should be already shown in the next earnings. These were such underrated events but I think there still will be some odds but PLTRs situation is much better as it was a time ago. The chains are off!
  2. Military expenditures rising worldwide

https://preview.redd.it/es8lf2qei4h61.jpg?width=744&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=90ba50e0ce9a0de2a0ca3957a1f2af3c7607e3b1
https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2020/global-military-expenditure-sees-largest-annual-increase-decade-says-sipri-reaching-1917-billion
With Bidens presidency we will see more disruptive technologies chosen by the government. Biden want to reduce the military expenditures. PLTR is able to provide better service for lower cost. Not only the recent judgements also the political change will help PLTR. Ironic if you remember that Peter supported Trump and getting his tendies from Biden.
  1. PLTR superior products profits hugely from economy of scales. They don’t have any significant costs when they acquire new customers. Making the big data usable for decisions making is already very important and step by step people realize that this issue growing fast. We creating everyday more data than we did yesterday and leaving the majority of it as trace and unstructured data. We don’t work with it but big Institutions does.
Here is the passage from the S1 and I fully agree with it:
“The systemic failures of government institutions to provide for the public — fractured healthcare systems, erosions of data privacy, strained criminal justice systems, and outmoded ways of fighting wars — will continue to require both the public and private sectors to transform themselves. We believe that the underperformance and loss of legitimacy of many of these institutions will only increase the speed with which they are required to change.”
  1. PLTRs value. The current situation of the market with tons of liquidity seems like a bubble. People don’t know what to do with the cheap capital and people throwing it even on meme pennystocks.
Facebook had his ipo back in 2012 during much harder market conditions as now. The valuation of Facebook was over 100 billion and people called it insanely overvalued. They did it because Facebook didn’t had a way to monetize their users (especially on mobile platforms). Facebook has a market cap of over 750 billion now and nobody calling it over valued.
A remember the recent examples? Bumble?! Bruuuh. Don’t get me wrong if you invested in Bumble but they have nothing special to offer and their business case can easily copied or improved by others. Its shows the current state of our market with the crazy liquidity that even zombie companies got astronomic valuations. Use these metrics on PLTR with great products, great management, low cost base and less odds as ever before….
PLTR price is wrong imo especially in this market and with PLTRs current state and perspective.
  1. Do you use PLTR? Me Neither! It’s not designed for us and we have to inform us about the success. PLTRs new contracts and their future are shining bright. With the settled lawsuits the sky is clear for PLTR. But their customer base is not only America. I’m not a murican and 3 weeks before I just find out that the police departments in our state using PLTR products. I don’t need to link endless evidences here since you can google it by yourself and see how many contracts PLTR recently got. Especially after the circuit breakers we talked about.
I have genuinely trust into Peter Thiel and Alex Karp that their will make the best of PLTRs potential. The odds getting removed and the demand for PLTR is increasing.
If all these information would priced in correctly we would have a share price of at least 60-70$. With upcoming and ongoing positive events PLTR share price should soar more..
What’s next?
Now we have earnings ahead and the lock up period ending.
For the earnings I think the number will be fine and keep up the positive trend on revenue with a disproportionately trend of the costs. The most important part will be guidance for 2021. We should listen closely and see if the magic is already happening.
The second event is the ending of the lock up period. You all remember the end of the lock up period of Nikola? Just 1-2 days after they announced they don’t got the GM deal? The stock tanked – for a good reason. You know the guy Trevor Milton.
But in PLTRs case everything is different. Despite the successful deals they got, does a guy who says “love us or leave us alone” sounds like someone who going to drop his shares at the first possibility? I don’t expect such a behavior from Alex Karp and neither from Peter Thiel. If some employees drop their shares it should be fine.
I would appreciate if the stock prices would go below 3ß. It would create a healthy bullish chart pattern and would be actually a nice discount to get in or stock up. I don’t think that the shares going to dump a lot because of this event. The earnings and the guidance are more important and the key events if you want to invest mid – long term.
What does all this means for you? Nothing! Please don’t do any market activity based on my DD. I’m just sharing my knowledge and looking for critics so I can reevaluate my theses. This is not a financial advice.
This is not a financil advise!
I’m not well positioned and not trying to pump this stock. I have 70 shares and a CSP. Fair play and fuck all the bots and pump and dumper we recently got in the sub!
Leave an upvote if this post helped you. I need some more karma to be able to shitpost everywhere again!
submitted by PutsOnYourWife to wallstreetbetsOGs [link] [comments]

$22K in sales in 4 weeks

Context: quit my tech job 2 months ago because I wanted to bet on myself. Spent 6 years working for other people, and finally found the guts to go independent. Never sold anything on the internet, so I've been blown away by the reception.
TLDR: launched info product based on feedback from newsletter readers; generated $22K in last 4 weeks all organically. Most sales came directly from newsletter (~3600 readers at launch, now ~4600).
My first info product, Product Toolkit has generated $22K in sales over the last 4 weeks. This was 100% organic (newsletter + Twitter) and fairly under-optimized.
Sharing what I’ve learned about getting sales, growing newsletter, monetizing depth, pricing above comfort, avoiding anchors, and listening to the right customers:

85% sales came from newsletter

If I didn’t start writing 9 months ago, none of this would have happened. My newsletter began as personal therapy - processing the good, bad and ugly lessons from working at a multi-billion-dollar startup, but has since become a source of value for thousands.
Here's a thread with more stats on where sales came from.
Readers told me what they liked, and Product Toolkit emerged as an in-depth version of what they found most valuable.

UPDATE: Growing newsletter from 0 to 4000+

When the pandemic hit, I had no excuse to not start writing with my free time. I've always enjoyed writing as a medium for making sense of my own life, so I started a Substack newsletter.
I never posted on FB, rarely posted on LinkedIn, and didn't even have a Twitter account. Sharing online was foreign to me, so I wrote in private every week for about a month before I started sharing with friends. The reception was positive, so I then gained the confidence to share in online communities relevant to my topics (subreddits, FB groups). This got me first 1000 subscribers.
I had a few semi-viral articles that were cross-posted on Hacker News and Twitter. One article (about getting an IG offer) got me 600 subscribers. I became more active on Twitter, and whenever bigger accounts told people to follow me, I would get an additional burst of subscribers. I've also started cross-posting content on Medium which has its own built-in distribution. My #1 traffic source is now direct, people coming directly to my newsletter probably through word-of-mouth.
Biggest takeaway: growth starts slow, consistency is key. Love what you make, and it will not feel like a slog.

Monetize depth over breadth

People click on breadth, but pay for depth. Especially true for info products.
Free and abundant information is the norm. But specific information that solves problems for people is rare. It can and should be monetized. Why?
Many people are only interested in the TLDR, but still want to follow along. Some are serious about taking action, and want all the nitty-gritty details. It’s hard for any given piece of content to cater well to both groups.
A free newsletter + paid info product is one way of solving this dilemma.

Which wallet are you targeting?

Because I’m solving career headaches for people, there were two wallets at play: company learning budgets, and personal learning budgets.
People who work at companies with learning budgets are in the first group. To make it easier, I drafted a note for people to expense the product.
Willingness to pay for solutions to career headaches is high. Not only are careers a huge source of stress, but the ROI for shortcuts is massive.
Customer goodwill = value - price. Increasing value >> decreasing price You can add ~unlimited value, but have limited room to slash price. Best to focus on places where ROI ceiling is high Example: I focus on career shortcuts where there is massive ROI

Price slightly above comfort level

Expectations scale with price. My early supporters locked in a lower price and showered me with compliments. This felt nice, but it also limited my ability to improve the product.
Once I priced slightly above comfort level, people were far more likely to share candid feedback. They showed me the path to grow into a higher price point.
This strategy is more stressful, but crucial if you plan on making a more premium product.

Price is anchored by format

You could be offering the world’s most valuable information in a PDF, yet people will have a hard time paying more than $50. A video course or digital tool has a much higher ceiling.
Match your value to the right format.
Example: some customers judged my Notion format. It didn’t feel “high-production” enough for the price point. They were right. I’ve since moved the content into Podia. It's slicker, easier to navigate, and also gives information on completion rates.

Promoters vs. detractors

As you scale, you will draw promoters (love your product) and detractors (opposite).
Second group is the unavoidable price of growth. Better than getting apathy!
Finding patterns between the two groups will help you figure out your ideal positioning. What do your promoters all have in common? How are your detractors different from your promoters?
Example: my happiest customers are people who are new to product and work in relatively unstructured places. There are happy people who don't fit the profile, but the profile is the best predictor of happiness.
Your detractors will ask for a lot. Sometimes, they are simply not the right customer. Once you figure out your happy profile, you can identify which detractors to listen to. Those who are close to the profile are more likely to ask for things that make sense for you. Refund the ones that don’t, and reposition your product so this happens less often.

What’s next?

So far, growth has been 100% organic, and improvements have been 100% based on intuition and qualitative feedback.
Upcoming plans:• Be more data-driven: use tools like Google Analytics and Hotjar• Launch on Product Hunt• Experiment with paid ads• Help customers share what they’ve learned
What am I missing? Any tips on scaling info products?
Thanks for reading to the end! If you found this interesting, you can follow my journey on Twitter, and read more of my writing.
submitted by enigmatic0202 to Entrepreneur [link] [comments]

AMC DD - 2.3.21 🚀🚀🚀

Let’s all go to the movies, then the moon. Before we begin, this is not financial advice, if you want financial advice to lose money, turn on CNBC.
TL;DR
With no more bankruptcy worries, additional liquidity, a reopening trade with more vaccines coming through the funnel, and with additional hype surrounding the brand, revenues should increase in FY2021 and FY2022+, giving AMC potential to reach prior highs at the $35 area, w/o a short squeeze. With? $60+. Important to note: The expected liquidation value post liquidity injection this past week, would be HIGHER than the current market cap. Also Blackrock now has a 5%+ stake in AMC. Bet with the suits that the FED trusts.
Prelude
What a crazy time, where the internet fights against greedy hedge funds and boomers who don’t manage their risk and over-short various equities. Not a surprise, as the wise Gordon Gecko once stated, Greed is Good. Now it seems it’s legal. Because everyone is drinking the same Kool-Aid.
Well, some of these funds got bailed out last Thursday in some of the largest VISIBLE market manipulation you can ever see, where individuals were only allowed to sell shares and many were FORCED to sell shares into a price well below the price equilibrium. What does that mean? To refresh the Econ 101 class lesson that the hedgies snorted coke through, when you cut Demand by say, 70%, yet force the supply to stay near the same or even increase, the price paid per, in this case, share, will be SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER than the fair market price. To Robinhood, TDA, and any other big firm that made a point to lower the fair market price of the various equities ranging from GME, AMC, BB, and others, I hope the SEC can get off their paid off asses and do their job for the American people. Also, to the Biden Administration that stands for the people, unity, and liberty, get off your lazy asses and do your goddamn job. We know many of the various representatives and organizations are corrupt, but at least catch the hand that’s still in the cookie jar.
Now lets begin with AMC’s true value, and most importantly, what their future value is.
The Cons:
One of the biggest issues that loomed over AMC’s head was bankruptcy. And it was a BIG fucking problem. So much so, the equity went from trading at $30+ to sub $5, especially hit by the pandemic and all it’s wonderful externalities. Back in April and May, two firms actually upgraded this stock with more positive outlooks, B. Riley FBR with a target of $4, and MKM Partners (sound familiar from 2.1.21?) with a target of $5 claiming that their risk of bankruptcy is lower and with the reopening of theatres possible from Covid presumably coming to more of a halt. Well today, the brilliant mind at MKM, Eric Handler, decided to downgrade the stock again with a price target of $1. Surprising, since they actually got a cash infusion recently by offering shares… Wait what? Oh yeah, wall street analysts are as much of a joke as their predictions of the future. No wonder they are so wrong all the time. Eric, I get you want to get your inner Kanye out but please take the medication before you put out a completely illogical downgrade compared to your firms last upgrade and PT. You do have a fiduciary responsibility, after all.
Financials:
Recently, AMC actually raised a ton of cash even before any offering of shares or anything of the like. To quote the President and CEO of AMC, Adam Aron, “Any talk of an imminent bankruptcy for AMC is completely off the table.” Then the stock RAN from 3 to 25 in a short period of time, and AMC did what TSLA does best, they raised cash. In fact they extended their cash lines by a smidge over $1B USD. Heh, not bad to combat bankruptcy.
Lets look at YOY ER:
We will get Full FY2020 results on 2.25, lets use the numbers we have already.
Attribute FY 2020 FY2019 FY2018
Total Revenue 2,527.60 5,471.00 5,460.80
Gross Profit 1,654.30 3,493.20 3,479.70
Operating Expense 5,617.30 5,335.00 5,195.80
Operating Income -3,089.70 136.00 265.00
Net Income -3,656.80 -149.10 110.10
Operating Expenses aren’t pretty, but a bulk is from Q1 and since, Covid has been a slaughter. Now how to we recover from a very dreary year? Pretty simple: Have cash to stave off upcoming costs, start opening up your theatres so that you can get those rev. numbers up, and begin partnering with old and new media companies in ways that haven’t been as exposed in the past, creating new revenue streams. Now lets go through these.
News Events
AMC announced that they will be able to last months before raising additional cash this past week. They then proceeded to raise over a billion dollars.
AMC announced that they will now be opening a majority of their theatres again. Movie releases will start to come back, per the industry.
Blackrock, one of the largest investment banks on the planet, has a +5% stake within the company,
JNJ and NVAX announced their Phase 3 vaccine results with decent efficacy. Reopening needs this as larger vaccine availability means a quicker reopening trade.
A bolstering of hype surrounding the company by the common man, with hundreds of millions of eyes if not billions, increasing net exposure of this once beloved brand to the general public yet again. Think movies were coming back? Now they are going to be back, bigly.
A short squeeze was set off recently as well, costing funds who were short AMC hundreds of millions to potentially over a billion dollars. This is one of the main driving forces brought to AMC, which we will cover below.
Needs to survive:
Have cash? Well recent funding and stock sales provides liquidity. AMC will survive FY2021. Check! Start opening theatres? Vaccine distribution is to expand exponentially, especially with the results of JNJ and NVAX covid vaccines adding onto PFE and MRNA’s. Biden admin ftw? Time for AMC to get some revs back. Check! New rev streams? This is something that AMC will need to work on, and in my opinion, are underexposed to.
It is my belief that this is one thing stopping AMC from becoming a TITAN, with their reach and location across the country, there are many major and minor partnerships that can be started to generate revenue, especially in a post-covid world. NFLX on the big screen? Doable, even with potential discounts for NFLX customers. Disney+, same! Streaming will have its moment of fatigue and film will be a fad, but there are many many avenues to attack the entertainment senses of a theatre attendee. What if Epic Games utilized AMC to throw some of their concerts, having individuals log in to a server of that theatre or theatres to attend some crazy concerts with their parents and other kids/teens just like them? I would love for AMC to bring on new members into the board to enhance the theatre experience. Food for thought to CEO Aron.
Short Float:
Now this is something very important with the recent momentum in this stock. According to finviz, as of today, 2.1.21, the short float is at a whopping 43.82%. Issue with finviz that I am seeing, is that there are only 107 MM shares outstanding, looking like a pretty significant ~47 MM are short. I’m seeing that there are 339 MM shares outstanding, so if that number can align, the amount of shares short are triple at 120 MM, which wouldn’t surprise me given the lovely and reputable news stories we get from CNBC, Bloomberg, and whatever sorry piece of shit that thinks that reddit is targeting a short squeeze in a $1.5 Trillion dollar market in Silver, as well as other useless coins.
Longing the stock
With the biggest concern to AMC, bankruptcy, behind them now, we can safely say it is worth it to look at the stock in a more elevated view. Let’s proceed.
Upon our recent review on AMC, our projections for revs to increase to ~5.4 B from the meager numbers in 2020, with a now-healthier view on AMC’s financials and cash-on-hand due to recent strides to increase liquidity. With additional potential revenue streams of new partners who grew at WFH scenarios such as NFLX, DIS, ROKU, and others, we project that this company should be seeing more explosive growth in the next 3-5 years and have lower expectations of ~6B in revs per year, and a larger bull case of ~9-10 B in revs if expansions do occur and new revenue streams are fully actualized. Anything above is a gift.
Now to actually long the equity: With RH opening up more shares allowed, other brokers allowing this equity to be traded and accepting more and more users with each day as they migrate from one of the worst brokerages around (RH), this should give more buying power into the recently popular AMC and GME trades. With such a high short rate and with many traders believing that the hype is done for, I expect additional firepower in the long trade as these traders will have to cover. Without the short %, my PT would be $20, but with, this could go quite far and squeeze anywhere between 40-60 if not beyond. It’s not really a trade as much as it is a math problem.
Long AMC.🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
someone asked about positions: 3700 shares and will buy more soon, just focusing on managing this trade. I did reenter my BB trade
submitted by Rotatos to smallstreetbets [link] [comments]

20 Best Practices from Elon Musk

While some of these lessons might seem obvious, applying them to our lives on a consistent basis requires constant reminders and a lifetime of practice. Even Elon Musk probably breaks many of these rules himself. If we all adhered to the following 20 best practices on a regular basis, we'd possibly all be 10x more successful than wherever it is we are...
  1. Listen carefully to the critics to hear what they have to say, but don’t always think that they happen to be right! Musk: “When Henry Ford made cheap, reliable cars, people said, ‘Nah, what’s wrong with a horse?’ That was a huge bet he made, and it worked.”
  2. Don’t continue doubling down on a solution that isn’t working. The definition of insanity is repeating the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome. Musk: “Don’t delude yourself into thinking something’s working when it’s not, or you’re gonna get fixated on a bad solution.”
  3. Make sure you’re surrounded by people you enjoy being with…of course, if it is within your control. If the workplace becomes toxic, leave it. Or try to work with others on the team to develop a more pleasant work environment Musk: “It’s very important to like the people you work with, otherwise life [and] your job is gonna be quite miserable.”
  4. Learn from the successes and failures of others. Musk: “You have to say, ‘Well, why did it succeed where others did not?”
  5. Think about solutions that are 10x better than anything else out there. A slight improvement is not good enough to achieve rapid adoption and behavior change. Musk: “You shouldn’t do things differently just because they’re different. They need to be… better.”
  6. Think about all the pieces of the puzzle and focus on each of the individual puzzle pieces without neglecting the others. This is an ongoing effort of personal tug of war between various priorities and your time. Never forget that time is your most valuable asset. Musk: “If you’re trying to create a company, it’s like baking a cake. You have to have all the ingredients in the right proportion.”
  7. Build the right team or join the right team; it’s often much more important to achieving success than the product itself. Musk: “Starting and growing a business is as much about the innovation, drive, and determination of the people behind it as the product they sell.”
  8. Ignore the resume. Think about a teammate’s character as much, if not more, than their specific technical skills. Musk: “My biggest mistake is probably weighing too much on someone’s talent and not [enough on] someone’s personality. I think it matters [a lot] whether someone has a good heart.”
  9. Be a good person; whether you think you’re an example or not, you are, particularly in a work environment. Many people watch and observe your behavior, even if you’re not Elon Musk. Be a shining example to your teammates and colleagues by following the simple Golden Rule of doing to others what you would want done to you. Integrity matters. Musk: “We have a strict ‘no-assholes policy’ at SpaceX.”
  10. Learn how to tolerate pain. A lot of pain. The short and medium-term horizons are often loaded with obstacles and landmines. Beware of them, and attempt to step around or disarm the landmines wherever possible. If your leg is blown off, figuratively speaking, of course, realize that you’re still alive and continue moving forward. Learn, iterate, and do better the next time in avoiding those landmines or disarming them altogether. Musk: “Being an entrepreneur is like eating glass and staring into the abyss of death.”
  11. Pursue what makes you happy, not only in work, but outside work. Try new hobbies. Join new meetup groups. Try learning a new skill. Start a side-hustle project that you’re passionate about that could someday become a great company. Musk: “People should pursue what they’re passionate about. That will make them happier than pretty much anything else.”
  12. After carefully planning a course of action and deciding that you’re going to do something, go all-in. Pour 110% of your energy into achieving the carefully thought-out objective. Musk: “What makes innovative thinking happen?… I think it’s really a mindset. You have to decide.”
  13. If you believe strongly enough in something, pursue it. If things don’t work out initially (as they seldom do), don’t abandon too quickly. See point # 19 below. Musk: “When something is important enough, you do it even if the odds are not in your favor.”
  14. Try to think positive, even when things are down and remind yourself of the old proverb: “this too shall pass.” It’s often in pits of darkness that we can see light at the end of the tunnel. Musk: “If you get up in the morning and think the future is going to be better, it is a bright day. Otherwise, it’s not.”
  15. Listen to criticism. Ask for feedback, including negative feedback. Absorb it. Learn from it. Apply criticism that is relevant and discard the balance. Musk: “Really pay attention to negative feedback and solicit it, particularly from friends. … Hardly anyone does that, and it’s incredibly helpful.”
  16. Get stuff done that will have a lasting impact on your community, environment and the world (ie no chasing quick $). Do it specifically to make a difference in the lives of those around you and the reward will be significant and generous in overall well-being, and might even bring financial success (which is only one small component of overall success in life). Musk: “I don’t create companies for the sake of creating companies, but to get things done.”
  17. Do not spend your entire life thinking about ways things can fail. Get out there and do it. If it doesn’t work, iterate, and then try again. Iterate again. And again. Most people spend their days optimizing for every possible downside scenario. This obsessive down-size planning ties up mental resources to think creatively and outside of the box to get it done. You should of course analyze the problem or deal at hand and solicit input from others on downside scenarios. Don’t let perfection stand in the way of bringing something good to market. You can always make it better over time. A corollary to this rule for entrepreneurs is to make the product or idea real and tangible as fast as possible. This will help in the feedback loop process discussed in rule #15 earlier and #18 below. Musk: “There’s a tremendous bias against taking risks. Everyone is [always/frequently] trying to optimize their ass-covering.”
  18. Develop a core group of advisors who will serve as a key part of your constant feedback loop (along with critics – Rule #15 – and initial customers – Rule #17). This core group of trusted advisors could be close friends, family members or even members of your community who know you well enough to offer meaningful advice. Reach out to these advisors often and consistently. Musk: “I think it’s very important to have a feedback loop, where you’re constantly thinking about what you’ve done and how you could be doing it better.”
  19. Have grit. Do not give up. Most importantly, have patience. It’s one of the hardest lessons of an entrepreneur since entrepreneurs often want results quickly. Musk: “Persistence is very important. You should not give up unless you are forced to give up.”
  20. Embrace change. Getting cozy and comfortable is easy. Sometimes it’s the right thing to do. But oftentimes, refusing to accept the inevitable change will stunt your own growth and path in life, whether in the personal or professional domain, and prevent you from achieving lasting success. Musk: “Some people don’t like change, but you need to embrace change [especially] if the alternative is [a] disaster.”
submitted by henry_gindt to startups [link] [comments]

Zom DD and insight from a vet = lemme know what you think

Hey everybody - I recently wrote a DD on Chewy and in the process I learned A TON. A little background on me:
I'm a veterinarian for the past 2 years, and have been in the vet industry since 2011. I've worked in a variety of clinics from ER to general practice. During my write up of Chewy, Zomedica was brought up sevaral times and I started to look up a bit more and wanted to write down my thoughts.
AS ALWAYS - PLEASE REMEMBER THAT IM LITERALLY AS GREEN AS THEY COME. DON'T MAKE BETS ON WHAT I SAY AND DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. THE ONLY TIME I INVESTED ON MY OWN PRIOR TO THIS WAS IN GME AND I LOST EVERYTHING. So tear this post to shreds pls so I can learn more.
Summary of Zomedica:
Zomedica is a veterinary health company that is currently in the development phase of their products. Their focus is "point-of-care" devices - aka in house testing. This has been a growing field, as the use of point of care (from here on acronymed POC) has become more and more common in the veterinary field as the devices have gotten more and more affordable and easy to use.
Zomedica's current golden boy that they are hyping up hard is their Truforma device which I will go into extensive detail below. They recently (in the last quarter based on SEC documents I read) have promoted their CEO from interim to full time and from what I've seen, it seems like they have a decent team on their hands.
Truforma specifics and analysis:
Truforma is a POC device meant to deliver testing for thyroid and adrenal disease. Truforma uses "Bulk Acoustic Wave" (BAW) technology which they claim provide accurate and repeatable test results. THE RISKS OF THIS WILL BE LISTED BELOW IN THE RISKS SECTION.
Now here's where I hope my insight as a vet comes in - shits gonna get technical in here so buckle up and ask if anything doesnt make sense.
There are 2 main thyroid diseases - HYPOthyroidism (low thyroid) and HYPERthyroidism. And there are 2 main animals we care about these conditions for in a veterinary setting - cats and dogs. Luckily, HYPERthyroidism is very rare in dogs and HYPOthyroidism is very rare in cats. Where I think the hype really dies down is that NEITHER of these diseases are emergencies. 99% of the time, we DONT need a diagnosis the same day. Sending blood samples to test for either of these diseases get returned in typically 24 to 72 hours (often 24 hours). And the thing is - sending blood to the lab is nine times out of 10 cheaper than POC testing. So honestly, these thyroid tests in house aren't that big a deal. I am very confident that if their only offering was thyroid testing, that most clinics wouldn't purchase their product.
The only instance where I would like an in house TSH test (thyroid stimulating hormone) on a more POC basis is when I have a sick, skinny cat who looks like a HYPERthyroid cat. The most common way to diagnose a HYPERthyroid cat is with a Total T4 test which is widely available POC test now. But oftentimes, if they have multiple concurrent diseases that T4 level will be decreased due to something called "euthyroid sick syndrome". In those instances, you would want to do a TSH test and a free-T4 test , and while we can easily send out those tests to the lab I can imagine some people would want answers more quickly. But realistically - these cases are few and far between and there hasn't been enough demand to warrant a POC test for it.
So basically - thyroid testing w/ truforma alone isn't very hype and honestly not that exciting.
So this is where things could get interesting. The thyroid testing Truforma offers is ACTH stim testing. There are 2 thyroid conditions - Addison's disease (adrenal glands not working) and Cushing's diease (adrenal glands working too much).
Now with cushings - again, this isn't an emergency. The need for POC testing is fairly low because this is a chronic disease that has been going on for months - waiting an additional day doesn't change much. There are two ways to test for Cushings -
ACTH Stim testing - this is a 2 hour long test which you have to send to the lab. According to recent studies, this is considered by some specialists to be worse than the test listed below. HOWEVER - some specialists will still use this test because its a 2 hour test, and not an 8 hour test like the one listed below. So there is a use for Truforma regarding Cushings testing and ACTH stim - however it's not too exciting.
Low Dose Dexamethasone Suppression Testing - this is an 8 hour test and considered the gold standard test for diagnosing Cushings. However - people will still use the ACTH stim because of the time constraints with this test. I've had specialists tell me they use the ACTH stim solely because their schedule does not allow for the low dose dex test. Ultrasound (not widely used to diagnose cushings as the first step)
Now here's where the hype comes in -
Addison's disease is the only disease of the whole bunch that is an actual emergency. Addison's can quickly proceed into something called an "addisonian crisis". This is a very severe, deadly condition from untreated addison's disease. And the reason addison's goes untreated is because it shows very non specific, hard to diagnose signs. And here's the bitch - to diagnose addison's, we need to do an ACTH stim! And currently, we'll start treating addisons on suspicion and other bloodwork results but we still have to wait a whole freakin day for the results. And I've euthanized a shit ton of dogs who I've thought are addisonian, however owners couldn't commit to days in the hospital on a "maybe" alone. To treat an addisonian crisis, you typically need multiple days in the hospital and very specific drugs - but its VERY treatable. So when I have an owner come in with a sick ass pet, the convo goes like this -
It's hard, especially when clients are financially constrained.
NOW the conversation can go:
In the first scenario, we might make a few hundred bucks and probably less than a grand. But in the second, if we convince owners to use the in house test and prove their dog has a very treatable disease, the likelihood of them dishing out big bucks to fix their dogs are WAY higher. Cause clients are way more likely to drop a shit ton of money if they think it's a fight they can win. But when there are so many questions left in the air, a lot of clients won't go into debt on a maybe (rightfully so). For this reason alone, I am slightly bullish on Truforma and ZOM.
Competitors and Risk:
Here's where I start to get bearish again. From the outside, it looks like ZOM may have a deep moat - new technology, only POC test for the conditions above, etc.
Why I'm bullish and what my target is:
As I listed above, the use of ACTH POC testing in an ER setting cannot be understated. And there are quiet a few ER hospitals in America, and more and more are coming. Those ER hospitals typically have the best and newest swag - it's there that you see all the newest POC machines. I'm talking crap that even my hospital doesn't have (and we're an urgent care hospital obsessed w/ shiny new equipment). So I REALLY think that they will hop on board. Additionally, ZOM has a Truforma distribution w/ Miller Vet Supply which is a MASSIVE distributor of vet products. And what I really, REALLY hope happens is that the big boys like Idexx sees the moat and thinks - fuck it, why fill the moat when we can just buy the castle and buys Zomedica out for a fat chunk (or buys / partners w/ ZOM to sell the Truforma system for ACTH testing). THIS is the golden scenario where I think we can make big bank.
So yes - ZOM is an INCREDIBLY risky play. They haven't released their product yet, but it's coming out soon. We HAVE NOT seen how they are customer service wise, test accuracy wise, reliability wise, ease of use - nothing. And half their tests are honestly not that exciting. But if they can generate enough hype and demand to get their product noticed by the big boys and even bought out I think we can all make a ton of bank. And with the price being so low rn ( < $3 a share), it might just be the best time to jump in.
My position: 108 shares @ $2.31 (Don't laugh I'm broke). My target price is 10 bucks a share where I'll most likely cash out my doubly my original position.
submitted by PoorVetKid to Zomedica [link] [comments]

$HCMC Healthier Choices Management Corp stock complete DD Package+Filed big lawsuite against Philip Morris $PM Nov30th '20/ pennystock exempt!

$HCMC

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Steve Urkel Supports HCMC To The Moon!
https://twitter.com/BizWrld/status/1360455367868653571?s=19

-60+ patents

-Pink Current

-pennystock Exempt

-MarketCap $865million

>Feb.8 2021 HCMC ANNOUNCES SALES OF $5,000,000 OF PREFERRED STOCK

February 7, 2021, Healthier Choices Management Corp. (the “Company”) entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement, pursuant to which the Company sold and issued 5,000 shares of its Series D Convertible Preferred Stock (the “Preferred Stock”) to institutional investors for $1,000 per share or an aggregate subscription of $5,000,000. https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/hcmc-announces-sale-5-000-130500804.html?__twitter_impression=true
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>Aug.24th, 2020 Secured $2.5million in financing for their #PPE initiative.

"We identified a NICHE market that needs servicing, and we intend to take an ‘old school’ approach of building a consistent book of business for this initiative. The industry has been inundated with “spot sales”, often attempting to sell product that does not exist. We intend to eliminate this issue by having inventory in our warehouse, READY to ship.”
“All types of businesses now need these products. Smaller health facilities need these products. Smaller businesses like restaurant chains and service industries need these products, and they cannot buy 1,000,000 boxes of gloves or 1,000,000 masks as is typically required. WE HAVE HAD NUMEROUS REWQUESTS TO FILL THESE ORDERS and intend to cater to this niche and help as many of these types of customers as we can.” https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/08/24/2082593/0/en/Healthier-Choices-Management-Corp-Secures-2-5M-financing-for-PPE-Initiative.html
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>A leader in the #CBD Vape industry! The Q-Cup can be used for Marijuana & CBD!

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>Aug. 20, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Healthier Choices Management Corp. (OTC Pink: HCMC) today announced that it has entered into a distribution agreement with MJ Holdings Inc.

(OTC Pink: MJNE), a leader in the Nevada Cannabis market, to exclusively sell and distribute its cannabis and CBD patented and patent pending quartz “Q-Cup” technology in the Nevada territory. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/08/20/1553951/0/en/HCMC-Lands-Initial-2M-Deal-With-a-Leader-in-the-Nevada-Cannabis-Market-for-Distribution-of-Cannabis-and-CBD-Related-Patented-and-Patent-Pending-Quartz-Q-Cup-Technology-Updated.html
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>HCMC Announces Publishing of an Independent Report Regarding the Use of Arecoline as a Possible Preventative for Covid19. HCMC Owns U.S. Patent Covering Processes and Methods of Manufacture of Arecoline! https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/04/03/2011503/0/en/HCMC-Announces-Publishing-of-an-Independent-Report-Regarding-the-Use-of-Arecoline-as-a-Possible-Preventative-for-Covid19-HCMC-Owns-U-S-Patent-Covering-Processes-and-Methods-of-Manu.html

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>HCMC Loaned VPR Brands ( OTC:VPRB ) $500,000!

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>BIG Lawsuit against $PM for patent infringements, and patent 170 The Q-Cup is part of it. [www.TheQCup.com]

$PM has untill the Feb26th to submit their answer. Been researching/ alerting this since Nov.30th & theirs rumors the answer is a settlement!

>Lawyers representing HCMC have been awarded as the #1 lawfirm of the year amongst dozens of other awards. You think they would take on PM A big Pharma company & risk their reputation if they had even the slightest chance of losing? No they wouldn't. [www.cozen.com]

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>Millions in annual revenue from 13Vape stores, 3 Paradise Health & Nutrition stores, 3 Adas Fresh Market, online Vape & CBD retailers, online health & nutrition retailers, and much much more!

Website retailers/ entity's subsidiaries all owned by HCMC:
[www.vaporin.com]
[www.TheQCup.com]
[www.adasmarket.com]
[www.healthiercmc.com]
[www.TheVapeStoreInc.com]
[www.HealthyUWholesale.com]
www.SmokeAnywhere.com
https://twitter.com/BizWrld/status/1356554285656334337?s=19

[www.TheVitaminStore.com] this site has many Health & Nutrition products listed on Amazon!

HCMC owns dozens of brands, 1 is Garden of Life that are rated #1 best sellers w/ 20k+ 4.75/5 star reviews! Look it up!
-https://www.amazon.com/dp/B007S6Y6VS/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_fabc_03KESEA9XAJAR1RYW3TS?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1
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>In the lawsuite their is 2 defendants named; Philip Morris USA & Philip Morris International! So technically it'll be a 2 for 1 win! Double the judgement too if look at it that way.

>Jan. 29th update to lawsuite:Judge approved PM request for a extension to submit their answer saying by February 26th now:" So that both defendants can submit their answer at the same time"Court also said no jury trials untill April now. HCMC said in their initial motion that they demand there be a jury trial for settling judgements. So PM better offer a big enough settlement to avoid that.

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-Rumors going around about the April deadline date. That is when jury trials can resume. Because courts have suspended all Jury Trials due to COVID-19 until April 18th. People been getting confused and people spreading false information on purpose. So as of right now the only date on the case is the February 28th due date of Philip Morris's answer.

Once that is submitted, wether it be a settlement or accepting what they have done or deny the motion against them of infringing on HCMC's patents, than they will schedule the next court date.
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>All press releases from Globe Newswire: https://www.globenewswire.com/Search?organization=Healthier%20Choices%20Management%20Corp

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THINK ABOUT AFTER HCMC WINS THE LAWSUITE AGAINST PM.

THEY'LL ASK HCMC TO LICENSE OUT THE PATENTS THEY HAVE INFRINGED ON! THEIR IQOS PRODUCT HAS 14MILLION + USERS, SO I DOUB'T THEY WOULD WANT TO ABANDON THAT REVENUE STREAM! THEY HAVE DOZENS OF ACTIVE TRADEMARKS FOR THE IQOS PRODUCT, AND PAYING HCMC TO USE IT IS THEIR BEST CHOICE! YOU THINK HCMC GOING TO GIVE THEM A DEAL, LOL HECK NO. THE MONEY FROM THIS LAWSUITE IS GOING TO MAKE IT THE BIGGEST LAWSUITE IN THE #OTC ! AND I BEEN TRADING SINCE I WAS 15, AND IN 16YRS NEVER SEEN A STOCK SO CHEAP, PINK CURRENT+PENNYSTOCK EXEMPT, 60+ PATENTS AND ALREADY LICENSES OUT MANY OF THEM! I BET LOTS OF #VAPE PRODUCTS IN THE MARKET ARE FROM COMPANYS PAYING LICENSING RIGHTS FROM $HCMC!!!
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PLZ SHARE & UPVOTE! I HAVE SPENT 100S OF HOURS ON RESEARCH FOR THIS STOCK & CONTINUE TO DO SO. SINCE I STARTED TRADING WHEN I WAS 15, NOW 30, I HAVE NEVER SEEN SUCH A GREAT STOCK, WITH A BIG LAWSUITE SO CHEAP!
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>I have full access to court records. As documents are submitted for the case etc, I'll update them here accordingly. STAY TUNED!

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>Investors Hub forum + tons of info for HCMC: https://investorshub.advfn.com/Healthier-Choices-Mgmt-Corp-HCMC-15314/ HCMC Ihub ForumLink

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Tons more DD on my Twitter:https://twitter.com/BizWrld?s=09

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Additional support, resources, & DD by WallStreetBets+OTHERS:

WSB is behind HCMC NOW!

$WallStreetbetsELITE: "CONGRATULATIONS TO $HCMC!! You have been accepted into the AMC AND GME COMMUNITY BY ALMOST 1000 VOTES!!! HCMC will now be the stock to promote with AMC guys HOLD THE LINE and respect this honor. We will together destroy Wallstreet and hedges! Much love."

/ https://www.reddit.com/WallStreetbetsELITE/comments/l8vjl6/congratulations_to_hcmc_you_have_been_accepted/

$HCMC "HOLD THE LINE! - $WSB $WSB / REDDIT / TWITTER / TARGET $HCMC AS PRIMARY FOCUS!

HCMC in the spotlight for a massive Monday breakout!!! https://www.reddit.com/WallStreetbetsELITE/comments/l8cfuu/hcmc_amc_and_gme_only/ https://twitter.com/setox/status/1355396529771728898/photo/1

GET READY TEAM! LOAD UP STRAP IN AND HOOOOLD ON!!!! $HCMC IS ABOUT TO ROCK THE WORLD! (IMO)

HOLD THE LINE! <3 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ON5ME7a3Al4 GLTA MAY THE ODDS BE EVER IN YOUR FAVOR
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/ Additional information:
HCMC Sues Philip Morris for Patent Infringement https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=159950572
HCMC Websites https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=160017233
With HCMC Awesome New Website https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=160017187
HCMC Announces Expiration of its Series A Warrants https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=160017304
An option too for HCMC https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=160067995
HCMC Intellectual Property Patents https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=160017403
HCMC Announces Formation of Intellectual Property Holding Subsidiary https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/HCMC/news/story?e&id=1765367
With this Powerful HCMC Connection https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=160017361
HCMC Distribution Agreement with MJNE https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=160017104
HCMC Eliminates $49.7M out of $54.3M Remaining Liability https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=160016884
More Huge Management and Key Insider Ownership of Shares https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=160016834
Key with HCMC/VPCO ex-CEO Buying 1.4+ Billion Shares https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=160016794
HCMCOperational Slideshow https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=145046622
With the HCMC OS https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=160013469 https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=159950978

*Not financial advice.

https://preview.redd.it/b0ga6euf21f61.jpg?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0645348ef8ac946f0de9c4e0e9facab43f4e9836
CEO owns 39billion shares! Now one share has been sold since 2011!
https://preview.redd.it/7d4lxpeg21f61.jpg?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5ab89c949373ada13bed7ad4f938b01b95dad7b8
https://preview.redd.it/587uud6g21f61.jpg?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f1809e6fe533a82be9e6b960501c8bb3ec3ff615
HCMC owns Vapor corp. HCMC was actuallactuallyactuallactually formerly Vapor Corp. HCMC owns Vaporin.cVaporin.com too!
https://preview.redd.it/tkn44pyf21f61.jpg?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c5f7a62a72bf76944f06557d737dd58feb5f1ef3
https://preview.redd.it/6odds4vf21f61.jpg?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c78051a9ac43672ca47c3b65cd168e106d48b3ac
https://preview.redd.it/y0560zzf21f61.jpg?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f3568aafe24caada77955bff86c4c4fa5bca8a00
A producproduct of HCMC sold on Amazon. See their Vitamin Store.

Full list of HCMC patents:

(https://preview.redd.it/6oj78o2g21f61.jpg?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3e25ea759bf5bb66ff0fdcdd2cf3c78fa97d4642)
Big Mike talks about HCMC and their patent owned Q-Cup Vape.
https://preview.redd.it/7ug7fbxf21f61.jpg?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=16d5d3c7714e78405ae2f2569b21bd771fecafc9
https://preview.redd.it/d5obnsuf21f61.jpg?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ce53b87d9921fba39eefe72b68b1229244c89ba6
https://preview.redd.it/kod6u85g21f61.jpg?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9390eaccd31478dfe063c13533dd11020f19a4a9

>Cozen is the lawfirm representing HCMC. They also recieved lawfirm of the year awardawards too.](https://preview.redd.it/olgsji5g21f61.jpg?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=27306f61d4a61e7d6871fbc76ee1e1d448dc276b)

https://preview.redd.it/ruj60peg21f61.jpg?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=81d49a70f34e4651fe6526c7c7daccd1315137cc
https://preview.redd.it/6wsjluvf21f61.jpg?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a8d4cee8e6d4511cad4e98635e2bde537cd092b9
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Additional information from a Ihub post:

THE CALL (READ) $HCMC TO TH MOON! The below posts are all timestamped it is a timeline of older $HCMC DD + my thoughts back in 2020 about $HCMC and what was going to happen before all the hype and media frenzy and hubaloo... O_O and now here we are today.
read if you are interested its long just a warning near the end is a monster DD post i did that was reposted on the wall here that many people read
cheshirechocobo Monday, 12/28/20 11:12:53 AM Re: None 0 Post # 20121 of 30551 IMO people in the inner circle of HCMC know a little more about this than they are letting on but the volume and money is talking. Methinks the HCMC Lawyers are working overtime because if the case was falling through so would the volume... IMO
The big Lawsuit people are talking about is between HCMC vs Phillip Morris for those who are new here and are curious.
I think HCMC is on top of this very much because "intellectual property" is a main part of their platform and if someone else infringed on one of their patents that they conceive / design / develop they are in the position to take action against that.
https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/hcmc-announces-formation-of-intellectual-property-holding-subsidiary-2020-12-14)
(Copied - + more there is even more info in the full article - follow the link to read- )
HOLLYWOOD, FL, Dec. 14, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Healthier Choices Management Corp. (OTC Pink: HCMC) (“HCMC or the “Company”) announces that it has formed a new wholly owned subsidiary to hold, market and expand on its intellectual property assets. This subsidiary, HCMC Intellectual Property Holdings, LLC, will own all of the patents, trademarks and other intellectual property of HCMC.
HCMC currently owns a portfolio of patents related to both vape technology and also manufacturing processes and procedures for an imitation nicotine product. HCMC’s focus with this new subsidiary is to invest in innovation and encourage further development of core intellectual property.
“The creation of a separate intellectual property holding entity allows us to efficiently market, license and otherwise capitalize on our growing intellectual property portfolio,” said Jeff Holman, CEO of HCMC.
Mr. Holman concluded, “We feel that we can use HCMC Intellectual Property Holdings to further implement our strategic plan and better capture opportunities to monetize both technology that HCMC has already developed over the years, as well as technology that we will continue to develop into the future.”
https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/hcmc-announces-formation-of-intellectual-property-holding-subsidiary-2020-12-14
HCMC is BIG on their patents and intellectual property. If someone steals your intellectual property or develops something you already patented then you can then legally sue them...by doing this you can in theory make more money suing someone for copyright infringement on intellectual property than you can on the infringed product in question At that point you don't even have to develop the initial idea to make money.
AND THEN After the settlement from a victorious case...
You can then use the money from the lawsuit to develop your business / product. lololol (that makes me smile)
IMO as always but this is what I see
thoughts?
(THIS BRACKET IS ME REFLECTING FOR A SEC IN 2021...might as well be a time traveler LOL OK KEEP READING THAT WAS A BRAIN BREAK)
cheshirechocobo Monday, 12/28/20 01:06:15 PM Re: BJ-Trader post# 20122 0 Post # 20138 of 30551 This is what I see
110 000 000 x.0001 = 11,000,000$ (seems like alot) BUT!!!!!
HCMC IS SUING Philip Morris OVER THE IQOS System
The IQOS heated tobacco units have become the third biggest tobacco brand behind Philip Morris' industry leading Marlboro and Imperial Brands' Winston. IQOS now has a 5.5% share of the global tobacco market, even though it hasn't been fully rolled out in a number of the 52 markets it's been introduced into.
Smoking alternatives heat up the market There are now 13.6 million users of the IQOS,(at 100$ per unit making 1 360 000 000 $)
that's 4 million more users than a year ago, and Philip Morris estimates 71% of them (around 10 million people) have stopped smoking and permanently switched to the device.
If Philip Morris are found guilty of patent infringement on every single sale of every single IQOS unit...
They have to cough up a massive chunk if not all of a 5.5 % share in the entire global tobacco market...of planet earth... over to HCMC.
A scenario like that would defiantly cover it...
DD for ya
Healthier Choices Management Corp. Files Patent Infringement Lawsuit Against Philip Morris
November 30, 2020 17:00 ET | Source: Healthier Choices Management Corp HOLLYWOOD, FL, Nov. 30, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Healthier Choices Management Corp announced the filing of its patent infringement lawsuit against Philip Morris USA, Inc. and Philip Morris Products S.A. in connection with their product known and marketed as “IQOS®.” The lawsuit was filed in the United States District Court For the Northern District Of Georgia.
HCMC vs Phillip Morris Lawsuit filing https://sec.report/Document/0000844856-20-000047/
The international law firm Cozen O’Connor has been engaged to represent HCMC in this matter.
https://www.cozen.com/
(MONSTERS ^ )
HCMC’s lawsuit includes claims that Phillip Morris is infringing HCMC’s patent rights in connection with IQOS®, an alternative tobacco product marketed and sold by Phillip Morris. Philip Morris claims that it is currently approaching 14 million users of its IQOS® product and has reportedly invested over $3 billion in their smokeless tobacco products. Philip Morris has been very open about their ongoing transition from traditional fully combustible cigarettes to their modified risk tobacco products, including IQOS®.
https://www.pmi.com/faq-section/faq/what-is-iqos
clearly covered http://www.healthiercmc.com/patents
The Philip Morris IQOS® product is currently the subject of two other patent infringement proceedings filed by RJ Reynolds Tobacco Company. One proceeding is before the International Trade Commission and seeks to stop the importation of the IQOS® product into the United States.
(added)THE INTERNATION TRADE COMMISION / FDA proceeding for the sale and distribution of IQOS system in the united states was in fact just recently approved.
https://www.pmi.com/media-centenews/the-fda-authorizes-the-sale-of-iqos-3-in-the-us
; the other is a patent infringement action currently pending in the Eastern District of Virginia. RJ Reynolds’ patents are unrelated and not affiliated with the patents asserted in the HCMC case.
“We are pleased that after a lengthy and careful analysis, a law firm with the patent litigation reputation and strength of Cozen O’Connor will be enforcing our patent rights,” said Jeff Holman, CEO of HCMC.
Mr. Holman concluded, “We look forward to proving our allegations of infringement in this matter and intend to continue to move forward against any and all companies that infringe upon our intellectual property in both the tobacco and cannabis categories.”
HCMC is in the right here...
FYI an IQOS system costs 100$ 13.6 million users all payed 100$ or 99 euros so 13.6 million users x 100S per unit as of feb 2020 (#'s don't reflect all the new users between feb to now either so the number is larger)
There are now 13.6 million users of the IQOS, 4 million more than a year ago, and Philip Morris estimates 71% of them (around 10 million people) have stopped smoking and permanently switched to the device.
As of Feb 10, 2020
At this point almost a year later they have even more users and now FDA approval for sale running around flag shipping the IQOS System that is in fact actually HCMC's patented intellectual property.
If or when PM ends up on the block and are forced to pay up on those kind of numbers to HCMC. The more greedy they get(and you know they are greedy) the more in the end they owe to HCMC and also the IQOS system that is actually HCMC's intellectual property is now FDA approved for sale in the US. (thanks to PM lol )
cheshirechocobo Wednesday, 12/30/20 10:56:17 PM Re: Badge04 post# 20507 0 Post # 20508 of 30551 MY POINT EXACTLY...If everything clicks for HCMC's legal team and the case goes through they will get rid of the float faster than you can spin your head.
I think they already are even?
If it all goes down in HCMC's favor and this will blow up so monster it will become an OTC legend. If you picked up .0001's on HCMC and held out on this it could change your life.
HCMC can buy out the whole floor after the settlement and if the people involved high up / HCMC's legal team already know how it's going to work out in the end they could be getting an early start not waiting for the courts, to begin enacting their plan and as for .0001's / .0002's they wont even exist afterword's if that is the case they will be a thing of legend as well.
No guarantees but man you could almost make a movie out of the story developing around this, at least a documentary.
At .0001 / .0002 tickets to the show are nothing compared to the ROI potential.
cheshirechocobo Monday, 12/28/20 02:26:15 PM Re: None 0 Post # 20155 of 30551 A theory
HCMC would be smart to keep surprising the price until the court case settles and they then buy up their own shares at .0001 with the money from the settlement.
That scenario would explain why so much volume yet no movement.
If HCMC runs up before the court case ends they can't buy their own shares for .0001 . So they keep it as low as possible and load it until they are ready to buy themselves for .0001 with money from the court settlement funds.
Anyone holding when that happens would just jump up along with the massive big block buys that would follow and HCMC has a massive rocket ride.
That's also how they can own a lot of themselves moving ahead into the future
thoughts?
cheshirechocobo Tuesday, 12/29/20 12:40:55 PM Re: RoidBoi44 post# 20268 0 Post # 20276 of 30551 ok Roidboi ... look...
I don't have a chalk board so I cant draw it out for you but..
HCMC will be able buy out their own bottom floor shares with IQOS Patent lawsuit settlement money.
HCMC sues PM and then all of a sudden HCMC has billions and billions in volume everyday...
I believe HCMC are the ones who will end up with the money to move it and that is why there is so much because its not for us to move its for them to get the lowest price possible on their own shares.
In doing so they will own themselves protecting / controlling their own shares from the bottom. They will then drive the price up as much as possible to give those shares maximum potential value in the future.
This is how an OTC company jumps up on to Nasdaq level.
"The Come up" as it is said.
Phillip Morris is under the gun because they used HCMC's technology (q-cup) in their IQOS vape system.
I suspect they had .0001s reserved for themselves in priority somehow hence the cancelation of everyone's orders on multiple trade platforms even though 0.0001 were reading as available...
This is all IMO but the writing is literally on the wall. The Volume here to me is the dead giveaway Someone's moving the cart along...
Unicorn Potential
END TIMELINE The above posts are all timestamped is a timeline of my thoughts back in 2020 about HCMC and what was going to happen before all the hype and media frenzy and hubaloo... O_O and now here we are today
I'll let you decide if you think I called this one ;) <3 I'm not even going to claim it...
This was the big post I mentioned about reposting and as a reward if you make it through all of this I will be reposting New DD and theory
This was the post that I believe opened some eyes. as follows
HCMC Q-Cup Tech Patent = Phillip Morris IQOS System Flagship next gen vape product being heavily pushed and marketed over 16 million + units already sold globally as of 2020 (the year isn't even over)
So HCMC owns the patent for the technology being used and sold in Phillip Morris's "IQOS" - E cigarette technology
The accused action is illegal
The IQOS system is a major money maker for Phillip Morris having sold 16.4 million units globally as of now.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/will-rrps-growth-keep-driving-philip-morris-pm-in-2021-2020-12-28
Copied from above link (more in article)^
Tobacco companies have long been struggling with declining cigarette sales, thanks to consumers’ rising health consciousness as well as strict marketing and manufacturing policies imposed by regulatory authorities. Amid such a scenario, industry players like Philip Morris International Inc. PM are managing to stay afloat on the back of growth in low-risk tobacco alternatives. Additionally, gains from effective pricing strategies have been an upside. Let’s take a closer look.
RRPs Are a Key Growth Catalyst Philip Morris is committed toward developing a smoke-free future by expanding offerings in the reduced-risk products (RRPs) category. These products, owing to their beneficial claims, are largely being accepted by individuals trying to quit or reduce cigarette consumption. Philip Morris is one of the industry pioneers in driving the shift from cigarettes to RRPs. The company’s IQOS is one of the leading RRPs in the industry. IQOS was launched in the United States in 2019, through a commercial deal with Altria Group, Inc. MO that was approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). We note that IQOS is currently the only heat-not-burn product in the U.S. market, which has been approved by the FDA.
Since the onset of the pandemic, the switch from smoking cigarettes to RRPs has been trending positively. Total users of IQOS at the end of third-quarter 2020 were estimated to be about 16.4 million globally. (So 16.4 million units x 100$ per unit = 1640000000$)
In the said quarter, revenues in the RRPs category increased 28.6% and formed a little more than 23% of the company’s top line.
The company expects consistent growth in the heated tobacco category, and therefore has been committed toward expanding these products. Earlier this month, the company’s IQOS 3 received authorization from the FDA for sale in the United States. The new device incorporates a number of technological improvements like enhanced battery life and quicker recharge. In prior efforts, the company started commercializing IQOS VEEV, which is its new product in the vapor category. The company also announced a partnership with South Korea’s KT&G earlier this year to commercialize the latter’s smoke-free products outside the country.
Clearly, such efforts are likely to keep bolstering Philip Morris’ revenues from the RRPs space. Markedly, the company is on track to achieve its 2021 goal of > 90-100 billion < (WOW) shipments of heated tobacco units. (end copy)
So...
HCMC is suing Philip Morris because HCMC developed the patent ("Q-Cup") that is the same technology being used in the IQOS system now being pushed heavily by Phillip Morris and was approved back in 2018.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/healthier-choices-management-corp-issued-three-u-s-patents-in-relation-to-its-q-cup-technology-1027675756
http://www.healthiercmc.com/news/2018/9/24/hcmc-announces-us-patent-for-its-q-cup-technology-will-be-granted-in-60-90-days
http://www.healthiercmc.com/patents https://theqcup.com/pages/patents
So for those who don’t know yet. Healthier Choice Management Corp (HCMC) are suing Philip Morris for copyright infringement on their (HCMC's) patent regarding (Phillip Morris's) IQOS - E cigarettes (now being sold like hotcakes by Phillip Morris.)
According to Phillip Morris they haven’t denied this fact by revealing they invested over 3 billion so far into marketing these new E-Cigarette products including the contested IQOS.
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/11/30/2136949/0/en/Healthier-Choices-Management-Corp-Files-Patent-Infringement-Lawsuit-Against-Philip-Morris.html
HCMC hired the law firm COZEN to pursue these claims. I have attached some links below for further research into the future value of E-cigarettes.
https://www.cozen.com/
If Philip Morris is found guilty and liable of patent infringement it means they illegally sold 16.4 million units of the IQOS system. + the 2021 goal of 100 billion units and any other profits linked to IQOS related profits would be forfeit and owed to HCMC in some form.
That is just mind blowing
Philip Morris is moving forward with their marketing campaign despite the lawsuit even receiving FDA approval for large scale sales of the IQOS system in the United States despite the HCMC lawsuit. If Phillip Morris are found guilty the more profit they make on the IQOS system in the end just digs Phillip Morris a deeper hole as a climbing pay back price tag.
https://www.pmi.com/media-centenews/the-fda-authorizes-the-sale-of-iqos-3-in-the-us
$HCMC = 0.0001$ = David PM =$82+ = Goliath
LOOK AT THE VALUE $_$
David The Shepherd had to defeat the Philistine's and Goliath before becoming David, King of Israel.
All my posts here are pre 2021 and now look what has happened now that we are here
Source of " Additional info from Ihub"
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