TLDR: Following the recent DOGE and XRP situations, and our influx of new users - I have decided to put together a quick guide on what a pump and dump is, how to spot it, how to avoid it, and what to do should you fall for one. This is just my thoughts on the issue and by no means exhaustive. I welcome comments and my biggest recommendation if you fell for one of these schemes is to accept it, address your emotions, seek support - either by those around you or here if you feel more comfortable, then commit to educating yourself.
 

Summary:

A pump and dump scheme is where a group of people pitch a coin (or stock) to other people to spike short term volume, and therefore the price, in order to profit from selling their own supply at the higher price to the newer investors.
 
How to spot a PnD:

• Promises of huge gains
  
• Forced short time frames to make a decision
  
• No discussion of risk - or questioning permitted
  
• The opportunity finds you, you don't find the opportunity
  
• Comparison to recent success stories - e.g. GME (dubious whether this will even be a success long term for individuals)
  

  Tips to avoid - see below but the main two for me are:

• Recognise emotional decision making, in yourself, and when it comes from others (people you may normally trust). You need to recognise this behaviour, and cut it out at source. To step back and breathe.
  
• Ask yourself, what are they selling me on, and why? If they find you, you are being sold. That is all there is to it.
  

 
 

What is a Pump and Dump scheme?

  A Pump and Dump scheme (PnD from here on in), is where an investor, or group of investors promote a coin they already hold (or are purchasing) in order to cause positive sentiment and the price to rise. At this point these investors will then sell their coins to the newer investors, causing the price to crash and leave the people who fell for the PnD with a large potential loss, or coins which are now worth a lot less than the price they paid for them.
These are not new and were traditionally done via phone call. If you have watched the Wolf of Wall Street, or similar films about penny stocks, you have seen this stuff in action. If you are buying, you are the retail investor who gets taken for a ride.
With the recent influx of new users to this site, and following the PnD schemes surrounding Doge and XRP, lets take a look at how to spot a PnD scheme
 

How to spot a PnD scheme?

 

• Promises of huge gains, in a short amount of time. If it sounds too good to be true, it is. In crypto (and stocks) if someone is talking to you about something, they are selling you their position. If it is positive - they likely own it, if it negative - they either want prices to fall or they hold a competitor. Ask yourself, why someone would be going out their way to tell you something is a once in a lifetime opportunity? If it was, they would be keeping it secret and accumulating themselves. These people are salesman, and you are the one buying the bullshit
  
• Linked to the above there is often a time element - 'get in quick, or you will miss it', they are relying on your impulsive decision making to jump in - they are manipulating you to over ride the logical part of your brain which makes decisions based on information and context
  
• There is no discussion of any potential risks or downsides, and you are removed from groups or harassed for asking basic questions - this is a hive mind at work, and you are being censored from raising any concern or legitimate question.
  
• There may be reference to 'how this time is different', or it plays on recent successes which are in no way comparable - e.g Game Stop - anyone who paused for a second would realise why not only was financially the short squeeze on GME completely different, but also the moral stand point was too. XRP, for example, is a centralised system which enriches the founders beyond belief. Yet these groups tried to ride the sentiment of GME to convince others to join - as a show of rebellion and alliance.
  
• Social media storms are cooked up, it seems like out of nowhere this is all anyone can talk about - when has this ever proven a successful decision? Once everyone is talking about it, you are already too late. You may not lose money, if you are lucky, but you are still the one being duped. Again this is feeding on emotion and Fear of Missing Out. There will be groups created and ran by mods who run them like cults - no talk of anything but price going up is accepted.
  
• There is a time or plan attached - e.g. Pump and Hold at 8:30. For the love of god, if this is the case, sell before then. All the leaders of these groups will have done. All of these public announcements are done again to create legitimacy and make you feel at ease - as a collective.
  
• Generally any concept of 'we are in this together', coming from a group trying to actively push up the price of something short term = PnD. You are not in this together, markets are competitive - they are survival of the fittest whether you like it or not. They want your money, when you listen to them - you are basically offering to hand it over. People invest to make money, especially when the entire premise is pushing a price up to get rich. They do not want what is good for you, they are using you and they will take your money if you allow them to. They are telling you, because you are the opportunity - not the coin.
  
• Be aware, people telling you to hold and buy more, are using you. They want you to push the price back up so they can sell. If you are in these groups - on social media, be aware you may be talking to bots, or at the least people who are trying to dump on you. When it drops, get out.
  

 
 

How to avoid PnDs in future

 

• 'Why are they telling me this?' - this is the first and main question to ask yourself. What does the person sharing the information have to gain from telling me? In this case - you invest and push the price up, allowing them to make greater profit. Understand why they would be sharing details with you - if it such a great thing, why are they sharing it?
  
• if it is a friend telling you, ask for more information - why it is doing well, what the plan is etc - if they can't explain it properly, this is a big red flag and they likely have fallen for it too.
  
• Look out for how someone talks to you about it - is it emotionally driven, does it make you excited? scared to miss out? - This is exactly when you need to step back, breathe and ask yourself if you are thinking correctly. Emotional decision making is not a good thing here, and then ask if they are intentionally trying to get an emotional reaction out of you? (see the above - FOMO, get rich quick etc)
  
• Is there any room for nuance? Are you able to discuss the potential cons or risk? If you are laughed at, or harassed, others are told to ignore you (he won't be getting rich, weak hands, pathetic seller) - this is a huge sign that you are investing in something where no other thoughts are allowed. The reason for this, once you are out the bubble - logic returns and you see the smoke and mirrors for what they are. PnD groups work like a cult, only one form of thinking is allowed, everything else is censored.
  
• Did this come out of nowhere, do I even know anything about this? If you don't know anything about it, except it makes money, don't invest in it. This is a terrible decision for two reasons. Firstly, and most obviously, you have asymmetric information - you have no idea why and what you are buying, therefore can't make an informed decision - only an emotional one. Equally, this kind of thing pushes panicked, emotional selling. When you don't know fundamental reasons why you invest in something, when the price dips you will sell. Why? because when your brain asks you the question 'shit it is dropping, what do we do?!' - your logical brain won't have an answer, because you never gave it the information to form one. This second part is more relevant to regular investments, not PnDs of course, but is worth bearing in mind before you invest in anything.
  
• Was the coin relatively stagnant, or has it dipped recently? PnDs typically target coins which haven't moved much recently, or have lower trading volume, this allows for a much easier spiking of the price due to a small change in demand equalling a big change in price. If you look at the charts and it was doing nothing until this big flurry of activity - you are being taken for a ride.
  
• Look for the news, if it is pumping, don't listen to people inside the group - search for reasons why something is pumping. If you can't find anything of value, there probably isn't anything, and you are gambling on emotional decisions.
  
• The opportunity finds you, you don't find the opportunity. Getting rich off 'undervalued' coins, or finding a hidden gem is not easy. They are hidden for a reason. If someone is coming to you with this, remember they are selling. You are buying.
  
• If someone does approach you, talk to someone else outside of the bubble - find another group e.g. CC, or other investors - talk to them, get outside perspective before investing.
  
• look for examples of populist sentiment. Do you hear things about an other? - e.g. haters, those missing out who are jealous. Are you made to feel like you are part of a special group? The ones with insider information? This is a lie, it is very very common manipulation within populist movements, cults etc - to create a narrative of an other to entrench tribalism within the group. This is done to make you switch your brain off, to rule on emotion.
  
• is there a recent comparable story that was successful? e.g. GME (yes this isn't the same at all in reality, but the story being sold is - or at least plays on the hype of GME). If there is, you are being played. The real opportunity, just like the hidden gem, is the first one. When people tell you this is happening again, they are simply using the positive news from one case and applying it to their own - often because it lacks any actual, real, tangible reason for succeeding or being a good investment.
  

 
 

I fell for a PnD, what next?

 
Have you sold yet - No? Are you in profit? Sell. Whilst you still can. Greed will tell you not to, and perhaps you can eek out a little more money. But you are gambling, and gambling extremely high risk against people trying to take all your money.
 
Yes, you have sold. Did you make a profit? Yes - great. You are still a an idiot, just a lucky one. Tell yourself that. There is a difference between opportunist traders taking advantage of PnDs and someone getting lucky and getting out before it collapses. Do not confuse the two. The first group know what they are doing (and they may still lose, but they are aware of the real risk). You are fucking lucky. Don't do it again. So count your blessings, go through the same process of learning about PnDs and begin to understand why you fell for it, how to avoid it in future and realise you are up - you won. Don't go back in, you are asking to lose.
 
Yes you have sold? Did you make profit? No? Ok, this is normal - 90% + of people doing this will end up in the same situation.
 

• Recognise and accept your mistake. Do not feel ashamed of it, it is ok. You were played, it happens to all of us in our lives at some point.
  
• Step away from whatever device you used to invest. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO WIN IT BACK RIGHT AWAY. You will most likely make things worse, investing again on emotions - even worse emotions now, shame, anger, disbelief.
  
• Talk to the important people in your life if you feel comfortable, if not, come here or to other anonymous groups for support. It is important to share what happened, to vent emotionally whatever it is you feel.
  
• Realise it is only money, even if gambled way more than you should have done, long term you will get out of this. Focus on other areas of your life for the time being - emotional investment, fulfilment and development - seek out things which may centre to your emotions again, whatever that may be - getting out in nature, cooking, reading, adrenaline sports - whatever the shit you need, do it.
  
• Consider who, if anyone needs to know. Did you borrow from you and your wife's joint account? Accept a loan from a mate? These people need to know the truth. Do not hide it and hope to win it back. Tell the truth. They deserve it.
  
• Do not repeat the same actions, if you want to win long term from this - you need a different approach. Step away from the high stakes casino and figure out long term strategies to make money.
  
• Learn to diversify and manage risk. You are taking a huge gamble going all in on something - even if it isn't a scam, you need to protect yourself through diversifying your investments. Get rich quick schemes are the fastest way to lose money.
  
• Educate yourself on these behaviours - I would recommend 'Thinking Fast and Slow' by Daniel Kahnemann as a personal favourite. This book helps to look at and address the biases that make up our emotional decision making, and learn how to recognise these and instead 'think slow'. You won't regret reading it.
  

From Ford's press conference. More info coming soon. 1201am on Monday this goes into effect
Read it here:
https://www.reddit.com/ontario/comments/jv100c/ontario_covid_color_zones_read_this_post_to_see

Organized public events, social gatherings and religious services, rites and ceremonies

• No indoor organized public events and social gatherings, except with members of the same household
  
• Limit for outdoor organized public events and social gatherings, physical distancing can be maintained:
  
  • 10 people outdoors
• Limit for weddings, funerals and other religious services, rites or ceremonies where physical distancing can be maintained:
  
  • 10 people indoors
  • 10 people outdoors
• Virtual and drive-in gatherings, events services, rites or ceremonies permitted
  

Restaurants, bars and food or drink establishments

• Indoor and outdoor service prohibited
  
• Take out, drive through and delivery permitted, including sale of alcohol
  

Sports and recreational fitness facilities

• Closed for indoor and outdoor except for high performance and professional athletes
• Community centres and multi-purpose facilities (for example, YMCA) allowed to be open for permitted activities such as child care services

Meeting and event spaces

• Closed with limited exceptions for:
  • day camps for children
  • recreational and skill building programs under the Child Care and Early Years Act, 2014
  • alcohol or substance abuse counselling
  • court services
  • government services
  • mental health support services

Retail

• Retail permitted to be open for curbside pick-up or delivery only (in-person retail shopping not permitted)
  
• Exceptions where in-person shopping is permitted:
  
  • supermarkets, grocery stores and convenience stores
  • hardware stores
  • other retailers selling groceries
  • beer and wine and liquor stores
  • pharmacies and safety supply stores
• 50% capacity limits in retail outlets permitted to open for in-person shopping
  
• Motor vehicle sales permitted to be open for in-person shopping by appointment only and other safety restrictions
  
• Garden centres, plant nurseries permitted for curbside pick-up or delivery; indoor by appointment only
  
• Outdoor markets permitted
  
• Malls open, with:
  
  • retail outlets in malls permitted to be open for curbside pick-up or delivery only (in-person retail shopping not permitted)
  • full access to businesses and organizations permitted to be open (for example, pharmacy, dentist)
  • food court open for take-away only
• Requirement to maintain 2 metres while standing in line and flow management
  

Personal care services

Closed

Casinos, bingo halls and gaming establishments

Closed

Cinemas

Closed, except for:

• drive-in cinemas
  
• rehearsal or performing a recorded or broadcasted event
  

Performing arts facilities

• Closed to spectators
  
• Rehearsal or performing a recorded or broadcasted event permitted
  
• Performers and employees must maintain 2 metre physical distance except for purposes of the performance
  
• Singers and players of brass or wind instruments must be separated from any other performers by plexiglass or other impermeable barrier
  
• Drive-in performances permitted
  

Amusement parks, water parks

• Closed

Bathhouses and sex clubs

• Closed

Boarding kennels and stables

• Permitted to open for animal’s owner to visit the animal, assist in the care or feeding of the animal or, as applicable, ride the animal

Campgrounds

• Campsites must be made available only for trailers and recreational vehicles that are used by individuals who are in need of housing, or are permitted to be there by the terms of a full season contract
  
• Only campsites with electricity, water service and facilities for sewage disposal may be provided for use
  
• All recreational facilities in the campground and all other shared facilities in the campground, other than washrooms and showers, must be closed
  
• Short-term campground rentals that were reserved on or before November 22, 2020 are permitted; no new reservations after November 22, 2020 permitted, except for individuals who are in need of housing
  

Cannabis

• Permitted by curb-side pick-up

Driving instruction

• In-person driving instruction not permitted
  
• Virtual permitted
  

Household services

• Domestic and cleaning and maintenance services permitted, including:
  
  • housekeepers, cooks, maids and butlers
  • personal affairs management
  • nanny services and babysitters
  • other domestic personnel
  • house cleaning
  • indoor or outdoor painting
  • pool cleaning
  • general repairs
• Outdoor cleaning and maintenance services permitted
  

Horse racing

• Training only, no races
  
• No spectators
  

Hotels, motels

• Permitted to operate except for any pools, fitness centres, meeting rooms and other recreational facilities that may be part of the operations of these businesses

Libraries

• Open for curbside, delivery and pick-up
  
• Patrons permitted to enter libraries for contactless drop-off and pick-up, and to access computers, photocopiers, or similar services
  
• May open for permitted services (for example, child care services, AA meetings)
  
• No classes
  

Marinas, boating clubs, golf courses and driving ranges

• Marinas and boating clubs permitted to operate for fuel supply, watercraft repair and servicing, watercraft docking and watercraft launching services for essential purposes
  
• Clubhouses, restaurants, pools, meeting rooms, fitness centres or other recreational facilities on the premises closed to the public, with limited exceptions
  
• Golf courses and driving ranges:
  
  • Outdoors permitted
  • Indoors closed
• Indoor shooting ranges closed
  

Media industries

• Film and television production, including all supporting activities such as hair, makeup and wardrobe, are permitted to open if they meet the following conditions:
  
  • No studio audiences may be permitted to be on the film or television set
  • The set must be configured and operated in such a way as to enable persons on the set to maintain a physical distance of at least two metres from other persons, except where necessary for the filming of the film or television production
  • Persons who provide hair or makeup services must wear appropriate personal protective equipment
• Film and television post-production, visual effects and animation studios are permitted
  
• Book and periodical production, publishing and distribution businesses are permitted
  
• Interactive digital media businesses, including computer system software or application developers and publishers, and video game developers and publishers are permitted
  

Motorsports

• Closed

Museums and other cultural amenities (for example, art galleries, science centres)

• Closed

Nightclubs

• Only permitted to open if they operate as a restaurant, bar, or other food and drink establishment (take-out, drive-through and delivery service only)

Personal services

• In-person personal services not permitted, including:
  
  • personal shoppers
  • party and wedding planners
  • personal organizer services
  • personal physical fitness or sports trainers
  • house sitters
  • Photography studios and services

Closed

• Real estate agencies
  
• Permitted to operate; open houses permitted by appointment only
  

Short-term rentals

• Existing bookings as of November 22, 2020 honoured regardless of when the rental occurs
  
• No new bookings after November 22, 2020 permitted, except for individuals who are in need of housing
  
• This does not apply to hotels, motels, lodges, resorts and other shared rental accommodation, including student residences
  

Strip clubs

• Only permitted to open if they operate as a restaurant, bar, or other food and drink establishment (take-out, drive-through and delivery service only)

Tour and guide services

• Closed

Veterinary services

Services that are permitted include:

• Veterinary services and other businesses that provide for the health and welfare of animals, including farms, boarding kennels, stables, animal shelters and research facilities
  
• Businesses that provide services for the training and provision of service animals
  
• Businesses that provide pet services, including pet grooming services, pet sitting services, pet walking services and pet training services
  

Zoos and aquariums

• Closed to the public
  
• Permitted to operate for the care of animals
  

2/9/21 Update: Additional info posted here

Funko is a good company with solid performance that is still trading at a reasonable price. Check out my DD below:
​
Funko (FNKO)
Share Price (1/28/21) : $11.97
Share Price (09/16/19) : $27.86
Short Interest (1/26/21) : 14%
Next Earnings Release: March 2021
Funko Inc. is an American company that manufactures licensed pop culture collectibles, best known for its licensed vinyl figurines and bobbleheads. They have over 1,000 licenses across music, video games, film, TV, sports and many other pop culture properties. Some of their most popular licensed brands include Marvel, Disney, Star Wars, Pokemon, Fortnite, NBA, NFL, MLB, DC Comics, and a variety of anime properties.
Several points below support the belief that Funko’s revenue grew during the 2020 holiday season and could continue well into 2021:
· Increasing search traffic for Funko products
· Direct sales growth is driving increased revenue and profitability
· Parents are buying more gifts for their kids due to COVID
· People have more disposable income from staying at home and not going out
· Expansion of new products and licensees continuing through 2021
· Collectible investments like Funko POP! figures are exploding in value and popularity
· Recent analyst commentary, valuation, and financials are positive
FUNKO’S SEARCH TRAFFIC REACHES AN ALL-TIME HIGH IN Q4 2020
“Funko” google trends search traffic was up 20-30% in Q4 2020 (vs. Q4 2019)
Searches for “Funko” were up 2x in December vs the beginning of November 2020
After falling in December, “Funko” searches are trending back up to all-time-high levels
FUNKO’S DIRECT SALES INITIATIVES DRIVING HIGHER REVENUE & MARGIN
Funko Direct Sales (B2C) grew significantly in Q3 and likely to continue into Q4
· B2C business as a percentage of sales increased to 8% in Q3 2020 from 4% during the prior year.
· Funko’s e-commerce site grew over 150% vs. the prior year in Q3 2020
· The number of SKU’s on Funko’s e-commerce site rose tenfold since June 2020
“We went from only 200 of our own products [on our website] as late as June this year, to now well over 2,000 products available on our website.” – Funko CEO, Brian Mariotti
Funko’s first ever Selena Pop! sold out online in just 40 minutes.
Funko’s Q3 2020 Gross Profit % and Operating Margin % were near all-time-highs for the company
· Funko’s Q3 Gross Profit Percentage of 38.6% was its second highest ever (behind only Q1 2020)
· Funko’s Q3 Operating Profit Percentage of 10.8% was its second highest ever (behind only Q4 2018)
· As Funko continues to grow it’s B2C e-commerce sales in Q4 and beyond, it is possible that gross profit and operating profit percentages could rise as well
Retail customers were able to shift their Brick & Mortar inventory to their e-commerce channels to Funko unit sales
· Funko resellers who didn’t sell online were severely impacted by Brick & Mortar closures during COVID stay-at-home orders. As 2020 progressed, some of these retailers were able to create online stores (e.g.- Shopify, Amazon, eBay, etc.) through which they could sell their Funko inventory.
· Larger retailers that already had an omni-channel presence were able to shift their sales inventory from their Brick & Mortar stores to online fulfilment.
Funko has also created a mini-Pop! factory at its headquarters where customers can make their own custom Funko at a price of $25 each
· According to Funko, you can customize your Pop! using thousands of combinations. It’s “Think Build-A-Bear meets Funko Pop!” according to CEO Brian Mariotti.
· With a $25 price point, the margins are likely higher than the average Pop! figure that retails for between $10 to $15
PARENTS BUYING MORE GIFTS FOR THEIR KIDS DUE TO COVID
Parents likely splurged on their kids out of guilt of having shelter at home because of restrictions and to keep them occupied while they had to work at home.
· “Faced with rising transmission of the virus, state restrictions on retailers and heightened political and economic uncertainty, consumers chose to spend on gifts that lifted the spirits of their families and friends and provided a sense of normalcy given the challenging year. We believe President-elect Biden’s stimulus proposal, with direct payments to families and individuals, and further aid for small businesses and tools to keep businesses open, will keep the economy growing.” NRF President Matthew Shay
· “2020 was an unprecedented year for the U.S. toy industry. The growth we’ve seen in the toy industry speaks to the fact that parents are willing to put their children’s happiness above all else. The industry’s resiliency is very much underpinned by the reality that, in times of hardship, families look to toys to help keep their children engaged, active, and delighted. Put simply, toys are a big part of the happiness equation.” Juli Lennett - VP, U.S. Toys at NPD
Toy sales were strong in 2020 as US retail sales of toys was up 16% vs 2019; driven by pandemic spending
· According to NPD, “Much of the growth in 2020 was directly correlated to the COVID-19 pandemic and the changing consumer behavior associated with widespread lockdowns and school closures, the disposable income diverted from other types of entertainment to toys, as well as the onset of federal stimulus checks.”
Consumer spending on toys increased measurably due to lockdowns; with strong performance continuing through the holidays
· Per NPD, “While toy sales through mid-March 2020 were flat vs. 2019, widespread lockdown measures led to an abrupt increase in sales. This was further amplified by the distribution of stimulus checks beginning in April, resulting in the strongest month of growth for the year in May (+38%). Toy industry growth peaked again in October with an increase of 33% when the holiday season kicked off with Amazon Prime Day along with other retailer deals the same week.”
Key retail sources reporting significant sales growth during Q4 2020 suggest Funko sales performance was strong
· Target Q4 sales were fantastic showing signs of retail strength with a consumer that overlaps well with the Funko
> Overall comparable sales were up 17.2%
> Comparable digital sales were up over 100%
> Store-originated comparable sales were up 4.2%
> Store traffic was up 4.3%
> Average ticket size was up 12.3%
· GameStop Q4 sales were solid; showing additional potential for Funko sales
> Same store sales were up 4.8% in Q4 2020
> Online sales increased 309% in Q4 2020
· According to the NRF, 2020 Holiday Retail Sales were up 8.3% compared to the prior year despite the pandemic
> A surge in online shopping drove the increase (rising 32% vs. 2019)
> The increase of 8.3% was over double the average increase of 3.5% that the industry had seen over the last five years.
MORE DISPOSABLE INCOME TO SPEND AT HOME BY NOT GOING OUT
The National Retail Federation (NRF) says that strong retail performance has been driven by consumers with stimulus checks and extra savings from not going out or traveling
· “There was a massive boost to consumer wallets this season. Consumers were able to splurge on holiday gifts because of increased money in their bank accounts from the stimulus payments they received earlier in the year and the money they saved by not traveling, dining out, or attending entertainment events” – NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
Spending on “experiences” fell significantly in 2020
· The US Travel Association forecasts that spending on travel fell $500 billion in 2020 from $1.1 trillion in 2019
> The industry has lost about 40% of its direct travel jobs (about 3.5 million jobs) in 2020; driven by a reduction in business travel
> Foreign visitors to the US fell about 75% in 2020; driving a $119 billion reduction in travel spending
· Concert spending is down dramatically
> Live Nation reported a 98% decline in concert revenue in Q2 2020 and a 95% decline in concert revenue in Q3 2020
> About 5.2 million tickets were refunded in Q3 2020 and 23.3 million tickets had been refunded so far in 2020 (as of the end of Q3)
· Movie theater attendance is down substantially
> AMC theaters saw a 97% decline in attendance and a 91% decline in revenue in Q3 2020
> Cinemark saw a 96% decline in revenue
> Marcus Corporation (which also owns hotels and restaurants) saw a 84% decline in revenue
> Studio Movie Grill filed for bankruptcy
· Other anecdotal information points to more stay-at-home activity decreasing recreational spending
> Chuck E Cheese’s declared bankruptcy
> Dave & Busters is considering bankruptcy and plans layoffs of +1,000
> CiCi’s Pizza declares bankruptcy
> Starbucks saw fewer customers, reduced store hours, increased store closures, and a 5% decline in revenues in Q4 2020. This has led them to plan a shift to more “to-go” formats
> Many Las Vegas Hotels and Casinos have decided to close “part-time” during the week due to lower attendance and travel.
These include Encore, Rio, Linq, Planet Hollywood, Mandalay Bay, Park MGM, and Mirage
The majority of food buffets at the major hotels and casinos have been shuttered for the time being
Stimulus checks and other government programs to support consumer spending provide tailwinds for retail activity
· The US government authorized more than $10,000 per person in stimulus spending in 2020 over the course of five relief bills totaling $3.5 trillion
· More stimulus spending is expected; including a potential $1.9 trillion package that could include an additional $1,400 in stimulus checks
MORE SKUS / LICENSES ARE GROWING AND EXPECTED TO CONINUE STRONG
Active properties continue to rise and are expected to grow well into the future
· The number of active properties in Q3 2020 grew 15% over 2019
· Active properties grew from 644 in Q2 to 715 in Q3 2020
· The potential universe for Funko Pops! is limitless as new films, tv shows, musicians, anime characters, sports stars, and other media properties are created every year.
Some of the hot properties for this year and beyond
· Star Wars: Baby Yoda, Mandalorian, Rey, Valentine’s Day, etc.
· Marvel: WandaVision, Deadpool, Lucha Libre, Spiderman, Venom
· Anime: Dragon Ball Z, Naruto, Bakugan, My Hero Academia
· Films: Harry Potter, The Goonies, The Mummy, Fast & Furious
· TV: The Office, Umbrella Academy, The Queen’s Gambit, The Simpsons
· Sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, WWE
· Others: Disney, Pokemon, etc.
Retail exclusives can grow the potential universe of licenses and increase retailer buy-in
· For example: A retailer like GameStop could lobby Funko to make a GameStop exclusive of the WallStreetBets Kid like this person suggested here. (The exclusive Pop! would be made into a limited edition and sold only to GameStop to sell at their stores)
COLLECTIBLE INVESTMENTS ARE GROWING IN VALUE & POPULARITY
· Funko: The average Pops! Figure has a retail price from between $10 and $15 which allows most people an affordable entry point into collecting. Over time some Pops! Figures increase substantially in price; from $50 to $100 to even several thousand dollars. While some collectors buy Pops! as primarily an investment, many more buy them as a way to show their fandom. Whether they are avid Star Wars, Harry Potter, Pokemon, Sports, or Anime fans; collectors build large collections and show them off to friends.
· Sports Cards: To those paying attention, sports cards have been on a massive run with some cards worth more than your parent’s house and your sister’s car. Since the pandemic started, the demand for sports collectibles from basketball to football to soccer (and many others) has skyrocketed. Countless videos of box-breaks and pack openings have become the norm on social media. Some of these boxes are being purchased for tens of thousands with “hits” ranging from several hundred to hundreds of thousands.
· Collector’s Universe: This company that grades sports cards and other collectibles has tripled in value since June 2020. The number of sports collectors grading cards has exploded as demand rises. The popularity of grading sports cards is expected to maintain as prices continue to rise and the hobby becomes more mainstream.
ANALYST COMMENTARY AND FINANCIALS ARE A POSTIVE FOR THE STOCK
Piper Sandler: Upgraded Funko from “Neutral” to “Overweight” (raising their price target from $6 to $12).
· Analyst Erin Murphy sees evidence of “subsequent revenue pillars” with their recent launch of Snapsies at 800 Target stores; along with an expansion into board games and its digital efforts, which include a newly launched website in six European countries.
Valuation Comparison: Market Cap / Revenue (TTM)
· Funko: MC - $604 million / Rev - $640 million (0.9x sales)
· Mattel: MC - $6.27 billion / Rev - $4.43 billion (1.4x sales)
· Hasbro: MC - $13.13 billion / Rev - $5.17 billion (2.5x sales)
Key Financial Trends For Funko
· Q3 2020 EPS (Adjusted) = $0.31
> Third highest ever (only Q4 2018 & Q3 2019 were higher)
· Q3 2020 Revenue = $191 million
> Fourth highest ever (only Q4 2018, Q3 2019, and Q4 2019 were higher)
· Q3 2020 Revenue increase vs prior quarter of 94%
> Q1 and Q2 2020 saw significant declines due to COVID
> Q3 2020 only down 14% vs Q3 2019 despite Q2 2020 being down 49%
> Q3 2020 strength driven by Funko adapting quickly to online in the US market. (Q4 2020 revenue growth could be aided substantially by Funko’s development of their e-commerce shop in Europe.)
· Q3 2020 SG&A was reduced 20% vs. the prior year as Funko rationalizes costs and adjusts to focus more on D2C e-commerce
TL;DR
After a tough summer, Funko sales have rocketed back in Q3 to near where they were pre-pandemic; setting up a potentially historic earnings for Q4 2020. Google search activity suggests that Funko is as popular as ever and is set up well for a strong year in 2021. People are spending less on “going out;” instead buying things to use at home and presents for their kids. As time passes, Funko’s status as a popular collectible only continues to gain momentum.
Their direct sales initiative allows Funko to capture additional margin by sidestepping traditional brick and mortar retail to reach their customers. Investments in collectible products like Pops! and sports cards continue to increase in popularity and price. And the company continues to release even more products beyond Pops!; including games and apparel. While some Wall Street Analysts have already begun to take notice, a strong Q4 earnings announcement can drive even more attention to the stock.
Positions: Long Shares & Calls
Disclosure: I am long FNKO. This is not investment advice. I reserve the right to buy or sell FNKO without updating this thread. Do your own research and share (or not share) with the community in this thread. Thank you to the others on Reddit that shared this idea earlier.
Feedback: If you have any additional information, ideas, or critiques please make sure to comment. It is great to get the perspective of others when making an investment. Also that information can be incorporated into future posts and updates.
Previous DD: Herman Miller

TL;DR
I created a laundry list of high-level tenets that drive the game design of specific genre I coined the World game based on Brad's famous quote. These aim to be applicable to any game that would scratch my old school MMO itch.
What tenets would you choose?
Preamble
The MMO community is, to some degree, divided by the different expectations and desires of its player base. Even an MMORPG can mean so many things to so many different people. I wanted to get to the root of what a good MMO is to me, and in the process, I found that the ambiguous label of MMO is likely getting in the way.
Passionate players across the board seem to complain about the same issues. Ease of difficulty. Cash shops. Single-player focus. Theme park design. Players of these games either leave the genre, ultimately disenchanted with the thin veil over Skinner box design, or they continue to search for something better, because they know it is possible. Maybe this is intentional. Developers piggy back on the MMO genre to hook the player-base before extracting as much as they can from the whales in their glorified casino.
So, here, I present the tenets of a specific game genre: the World genre. The focus on world over game is not a new idea. Brad McQuad famously said, “I want to make worlds, not games.” That focus can be seen right there in the name of Visionary Realms. And without the right language to describe what we are after, the community is continually bit by games that fit the abstract label but disappoint in the details.
The goal with these tenets isn’t to create a template so much as it is to create rough guidelines. In fact, these guidelines probably wouldn’t do a game designer much good in creating a solid design. But they should help in evaluating different options and validating an existing design. Certainly, none of the tenets get as specific as the theme or even the existence of combat. They should apply equally well to a game set in feudal Japan, The Sims Online, or the next zombie apocalypse.
Some tenets are broad, while others more specific. Some tenets are rigid, others more malleable. Some tenets are critical pillars of the genre, while others are less important. Tenets frequently conflict, creating tension.
A note on intuition
The tenets below are driven by the principle that they should be intuitive. The World genre is trying to capture something deeply human, buried in our brains because of the way we have interacted with ourselves, each other, society, and our planet over millennia of evolution. There is no right or wrong answer. When in doubt, we err on the side of realism.
A note on ownership
Establishing reasonably prescriptive tenets on the World and gameplay highlights the necessity of strong ownership and vision for this style of game. This is particularly true given that many of these tenets go explicitly against what makes a great game in general. For example, how many games would actually benefit from less player matchmaking? This also does not lend itself well to player-generated content, where those tenets can be easily violated.
The tenets of immersion
TENET 1 The player should be directly represented in the World
The World genre requires the player to form a direct relationship with the World, not with the character. This is a key difference between Eastern of Western RPGs (both of which I love) and so this may be controversial. The player should be able to insert themselves into their avatar. On the flip-side, it precludes certain mechanics, such as squad-based designs.
TENET 2 The World should be realistic in both form and function
That is, the World should minimize the need for suspension of disbelief. It should pull the player in naturally. I have always felt conflicted by WoW’s appearance. I absolutely loved the cell-shaded look of Wind Waker, but instinctually disliked the cartoon-like nature of WoW. This goes back to immersion. That doesn't mean the visuals have to be photorealistic. They just have to pull you in. It may be possible to get around this through the setting. For example, if the setting is a digital afterlife, you may be able to get away with a more abstract appearance.
TENET 3 The player and World should interface only through the player character
The player should only be able to influence the World through their character. And the World should only be able to influence the player through the character. This means, respectively, no cash shops and a first-person camera. It also means no GPS — unless, of course, the setting supports it. Taken to an extreme, this precludes voice chat, at least without something like racial voice filters.
TENET 4 The player should directly engage with the World around them
The key here is “direct”. No minimaps, no waypoints, no fast travel. Of course, these are not absolute deal-breakers. The key is that the player is able to establish a connection with the World around them. The player should, over the course of the game, develop a strong mental model of the World and its relation to their character.
The tenets of freedom
TENET 5 The player should not be assigned a story
The World itself can (and should!) have a story to tell. But the player character’s story should be their own. The player must have the freedom to make their own place within the World, eschewing the rails that a story provides. Side quests are lesser evils, but still evils. The more choice the better.
TENET 6 The player should be able to pursue multiple forms of progression
The choice should not just be in how to progress. It should be in which ways to progress. The most obvious example is crafting, but this can also include loot, skills, the economy, faction, or even — maybe most importantly — growing in strategy and skill.
TENET 7 The World should be demanding, but not prescriptive
This is an extension of the idea of a lack of story. If the game is too prescriptive, it becomes a job. A chore. To combat this phenomenon, the player needs significant choice at all times. This may, in fact, be the primary draw of the World genre: to provide an environment where players are purely driven by their own will. It is equally important to avoid visibly and overtly influencing the player’s decisions. The player’s incentives and motivating factors should be an organic part of the World. No daily XP boosts, for example. Alternate forms of progression can help here, because even once a player is motivated to progress, they have the choice of which dimension of progress to pursue.
TENET 8 The World should encourage downtime
The player should not feel compelled to move forward at all times. There should be joy simply in existing in the World, experience it moment to moment. Even better, progression itself can require downtime; this is related to the notion that players should be encouraged to play any game in the most fun way possible. This can be accomplished with world design, such as guard-protected cities or social taverns, or mechanics, such as fishing, firework shows, and waiting in queue for a boat. This is effectively the white space of gameplay. And it is all but lost in modern MMOs.
TENET 9 The World should be dangerous
Choice is meaningless without consequence. With real, negative consequence, comes danger. This not only gives weight to the player’s decisions, but also helps to establish the intricate give-and-take relationship between the World and the player. Looking at you, death penalty. If a World game is about finding your place within that world, then danger and risk makes this a meaningful pursuit. If that tension between risk and reward does not exist, even at the start of the journey, it undermines those goals. Note that this is different than challenge — and challenge itself is not enough.
TENET 10 Players should be encouraged to explore the World
This doesn't mean that players are constantly seeking some never-before-seen point of interest, but it does mean that players get out and move. In other words, the world provides resources across its footprint, and you must seek those out. Most forms of progression should require you to get out and explore. This also does not necessitate baubles scattered around the landscape to find.
The tenets of impact
TENET 11 The player’s actions should be worn like a badge
You should be a product of your choices. Your reputation, gear, and skills should tell a story about where you have been and what you have accomplished. Your spoken languages can tell a story of what cities you have spent the most time in. As you spend time in different climates, you may develop a natural acclimation to those environments. Imagine you walk into town and one of the NPC gnomes recognizes the scent of the nearby crystal caverns you have been exploring. This is interesting because it relates to life; the player’s accomplishments should come with artifacts. This also means that auction houses should be limited, as they create an artificial divide between adventure and outcome.
TENET 12 Players should have something unique to offer
The ways that a player can help others in their progression should be relatively unique to that player. As much as possible, they should tell a story about adventures undertaken; e.g., a proc from an item dropped by a famous mob. Of course, classes and class-specific skills are one way to accomplish this, but the more ways the better. For example, if one form of progression is fishing, then fish should be useful to others in many ways. A cooking skill is obvious. More creatively, certain kinds of fish could be used as powerful but low-level weapons. A butcher could extract gills or eyes to, in turn, be used as reagents for spells.
TENET 13 There should be no end game
Even the name “end game” is problematic for several reasons. It suggests a hard limit to progression. It suggests a hard divide in the way the World is experienced once the player reaches this limit. It also suggests that the focus is no longer on the World, but on the game — which is to say, the core promise of the genre is lost. This doesn’t mean to eliminate raids or AA points. It just means that those things should be included in the game proper. This tenet also implies that progression should be relatively limitless. Skyrim is an interesting example of this. One way to accomplish this is to create exponential progress; for example, having each level take 10% more experience than the last. Granted, this is a much harder problem than the simple discussion here suggests.
TENET 14 The player should leave a mark on the World itself
Can a World be meaningful if there is no way to make an impact on it? Of course, their character is one such mark. It is easy to imagine statues erected in town, or NPCs chatting about the first character to hit max level. But there should be a means for all characters to leave some lasting impact. Given that players can already say whatever they want in chat, breaking immersion, a simple example is the ability to leave a journal. These could even be curated. Other possibilities include geocaching, naming items, plaques that can be erected in various places throughout the world. Player-owned housing is perhaps the most obvious.
TENET 15 Power, fame, and fortune must be possible
A world game should be able to provide all three of these drivers. As with reality, these should not be the only reason to play. Fame is largely supported by communication; fortune by economy and loot. Power can be found even outside the game, in the player’s mind, as they grow in skill and strategy.
TENET 16 The player should have a home
Can you have a world without a home? Some place in the world should feel like your own. Where even the NPCs tend to be supportive of you: merchants give discounts and trainers more assistance. This could simply be your birthplace, your hometown.
The tenets of socialization
TENET 17 There must be no explicit matchmaking
Players must find each other. In fact, a World game should ideally employ the opposite of matchmaking: some players should have barriers preventing that connection. This makes it all the more meaningful when these seemingly unlikely relationships form. There are many ways to accomplish this, including separating players by distance or climate or language. Allowing certain players to engage in PvP is another.
TENET 18 There should be risk in trusting others
Trust can only exist when that trust can be violated. Otherwise there is no trust — just a cold, lack of consequence. By allowing negative consequences through socialization, we enable trust, and so enable more meaningful relationships. For example, a player might grief the group, log out at the wrong time, or simply lack the skill to effectively play their character. They might steal your loot.
TENET 19 Players must be able to communicate with language
The purpose of having a World is to allow the player to tell their own story within it. And what story is worth telling that doesn’t involve real connection with others? Connection with others requires communication. And not just any form of communication, but with language. This communication should extend throughout the game, as much as possible. That is, it should be limited to the tavern, but should naturally extend out to the dungeon as well.
TENET 20 Players should be able to help each other organically
Those that have the means to help should find themselves naturally in proximity to those that might need it. For example, have high-level dungeon entrances in low-level areas. Have new characters start out near big cities.
TENET 21 Cooperation should generally benefit progression
For example, a blacksmith could gather all of her own materials or rely on other players. In some cases, a blacksmith might actually require an enchanter to lend a hand in creating the best equipment. This is not a difficult tenet to design towards; it is more a warning against designing forms of progression that specifically do not lend themselves to cooperation. In many MMOs, solo combat is so fast-paced and rewarding that there is little incentive to try to find a group.
The tenets of the World itself
TENET 22 The World should be persistent
Things can change, but not so frequently that it harms the connection the player has with the World. This is one reason why Minecraft may not work as a World game, and perhaps one reason why the focus on player-generated content in EverQuest Next did not lend itself well to a fun experience.
TENET 23 The World should be shared
There should be no instancing. If you need to come up with elaborate lore and mechanics to facilitate this, then so be it. For example, say all of the top tier raid bosses are spirits that can only be summoned by rare relics. And the spirits can only be hurt by those that share a clan sash with the one who summoned them. Obviously this is terribly contrived. But it demonstrates that it is possible to work backwards from the need of a shared world.
TENET 24 The World should be big
You should move slowly compared to the size of the world. It should always feel as though there is somewhere new to explore.
TENET 25 The World should be open
Big by itself is not enough. Theoretically, you could create a massive, linear world — imagine Ant Hill: The MMO. But that is not sufficient for a World game. Exploration is critical, and so the specific layout of the space is important. For another example, imagine Destiny but with hundreds of expansions. The game would be large by any standard, but it would not be a World.
TENET 26 The World should be alive
To some degree, the World should be the main character. Day and night cycles are a simple start. Other possibilities include transient events or even changes to the landscape over time. The World should be full of surprises, unpredictable. You should come across enemies not normally found in the local climate. You should discover loot normally reserved for much tougher mobs. Emergent gameplay can help here as well. The more mechanics and attributes that can be projected naturally to some underlying physics, the greater the chance for interesting and unique interactions. In the same breath, the World should have history. The best example of this is Hollow Knight, a game that tells the history of the World through visual storytelling, environments, enemy design, dialog, secrets, and journals.
TENET 27 The World should be consistent
The World should carry an underlying consistency through it. The World should feel congruent. Variety, also important, must be tempered.
TENET 28 The World should be varied
Different places within the World should have an identity of their own, through climate or culture or environment. Different environments should encourage different play styles and behavior, even downtime.
TENET 29 The World should have landmarks
The World should be defined by the interesting places within it. More than that, the World should have locations that pull players together. Breath of the Wild does an amazing job with this, whereas it is one of the weaknesses of The Witcher III. In EverQuest, the camps themselves often serve this role — think Treants — showing how landmarks can emerge from gameplay rather than, say, visual interest.

I know what you're already thinking. Playboy is a dead porn brand that publishes a magazine and doesn't appeal to millennials or gen z right?
Wrong.
Leadership
Let's start with Ben Kohn, the CEO. Kohn has worked in private equity for 25 years and started a firm called Rizvi Travers which invested in pre IPO tech companies. They were the largest investor when Twitter went public and invested in Facebook, Snapchat, Square, SpaceX, Instacart, and Uber.
In 2011, Kohn partnered with Hugh Hefner and took Playboy private. Kohn became the CEO in 2017 with the goal of revitalizing one of the largest, most recognizable brands in the world. Since becoming CEO, Kohn has been shutting down most of the legacy business and most recently discontinued producing a domestic magazine. He's focused most of his attention so far on growing the high margin licensing business and direct to consumer business, transforming Playboy into a consumer lifestyle brand focusing on 4 categories:

• Sexual Wellness
• Style & Apparel
• Gaming & Lifestyle
• Beauty & Grooming

Kohn is also placing a strong emphasis on appealing to women and young people, something that Playboy had never done in the past. Over the last 3 years, the female audience has grown by 70% and 90% of their audience today is under the age of 40. Out of the total e-commerce sales, 40% of customers are women.
Financials
Playboy is already a profitable business. They have a highly efficient, high margin business model that accelerates with growth.
For the first 9 months of 2020, Playboy grew revenue by 78% from 57 million to 101 million and grew adjusted ebitda 129% from 9.5 million to 22 million. For 2021, they reaffirmed guidance of 167 million of revenue and 40 million dollars of ebitda. By 2025, Playboy is conservatively projecting 296 million of revenue and 140 million in ebitda, but expects it to be much greater. It's also important to note that they have over 400 million of forward booked minimum guaranteed cash flow, but they only recognize 67 million of that today, so the actual revenue numbers are much higher.
Playboy's business is monetized in two primary ways, licensing and direct to consumer. Licensing is a key part of the revenue stream and they anticipate it more than doubling moving forward. However, Playboy is extremely excited about its growing direct to consumer business as well which I will dive into in the next section.
Growth
Playboy has huge growth opportunities in each of their 4 product categories. First I want to point out that Playboy is HUGE in China and it's growing rapidly in India. In China, Playboy is one of the leading men's apparel brands with over 2500 brick and mortar stores and over 1000 e-commerce stores. Playboy sells products in over 180 countries and is the 17th most licensed brand in the world.
Style & Apparel:
Over the last 3 years, Playboy has partnered with Pacsun, Misguided, Supreme, and others. The Pacsun and Misguided businesses have increased almost 15x over the last 3 years. Playboy also launched Playboy Labs and partnered with Steve Aoki to promote the brand. Playboy intends on transitioning this business from a pure licensing business to a direct to consumer business going forward. They have future collaborations with Yandy planned as well.
Sexual Wellness:
The sexual wellness category is a 240 billion dollar industry today and is projected to grow to 400 billion by 2024. Currently, the industry is fragmented and made up of small businesses with no ability to scale. Playboy is poised to become the leader in this category through strategic acquisitions of existing companies and by growing its product offerings. Yes, I'm talking about lingerie, condoms, sex toys etc. They recently acquired the sexual wellness retailer Lovers for 25 million and expect them to add 45 million in revenue over the next 12 months. They are planning on making more strategic acquisitions in this space moving forward to become the leading direct to consumer brand in this field. They also began offering online sexual wellness classes for women, which have seen large growth since inception.
Gaming & Lifestyle:
The growth opportunities in this category are huge. Playboy is diversifying into online gambling, mobile gaming, CBD/Marijuana, and virtual reality. They have a social club/poker room opening in Houston this year in addition to their casino in London. They currently have partnerships with Microgaming as well as Scientific Games for mobile gambling apps like slots and poker, with plans to build more. They are also planning on entering the sports gambling market through partnerships with well known sports betting operators.
Moreover, they recently launched an exclusive furniture collection on Wayfair and plan on offering more in the future. They currently offer 3 CBD products and have plans to enter the legal marijuana market when it's legalized at the federal level, which might happen soon under the Biden administration. As of now they sell Playboy branded smoking materials like ash trays and grinders. They are planning on launching 4 more CBD products in 2021. Lastly, Ben Kohn said that experiencing Playboy through a virtual world format is something that is "extremely interesting to us". He gave an example of the Travis Scott and Unreal Platform collaboration.
Beauty and Grooming:
Currently, Playboy offers men's and women's fragrances and color cosmetics in Europe. They have plans to expand their product line and enter the North American market this year. In China, a place where Playboy has a large market presence, Men's grooming is one of the fastest growing categories and an area that Playboy is not in today. They are planning on entering this market in the near future with Playboy branded skincare and grooming products.
SPAC Merger
Playboy has a DA with Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp, $MCAC, with the shareholder vote taking place THIS TUESDAY 2/9/21. Once it's approved, the ticker will change to PLBY shortly after. One of the great things about this deal is that there are absolutely no warrants outstanding, meaning there will be very little dilution. They only have 1/10th of a right per share outstanding which automatically convert to common stock. Upon completion of the merger, PLBY will have only 37 million shares outstanding, which is a very low float. Any increase in volume and demand will send the stock price higher.
After the merger, PLBY will have a market cap of approximately 413 million. For comparison to other global brands, Nike's market cap is 185 billion, Disney's is 329 billion, and Lululemon's is 45 billion. Now I'm not saying Playboy is near those companies today. However, if they continue growing and realize their potential, they're massively undervalued.
Additionally, the management team all signed 12-month lock ups, preventing them from selling for at least one year. This is not a transaction sale, but a true capital raise to accelerate growth. They are in this for the long haul.
Conclusion
Playboy has big growth opportunities in multiple product categories to become a leading consumer lifestyle brand. They have a high margin profitable business model and a very healthy balance sheet. They have 100 million in free cash right now and only 40 million in net debt, or one times 2021 adjusted ebitda. They already have global brand awareness and the bunny logo alone has tremendous value. Ceo Ben Kohn knows what he's doing and has a proven track record of success.
It might be flying under the radar right now because all the hype is surrounding GME and EV socks. I believe when the ticker changes to PLBY and people realize that Playboy is no longer what it used to be, this has huge long term upside.
FYI: All of the statistics I mentioned are directly taken from the CEO Ben Kohn in his 1 hour webinar interview with SpacInsider.
Disclosure: Long 500 commons $MCAC
Disclaimer: Do your own due diligence too

It's not a debate about whether to plan things. It never has been. Things are already planned and that's how conservatives like it. The question is how things should be planned and by whom. In capitalism, production is planned by the rich, who have no goal in mind but their own profit. To frame the debate as though it were about capitalism versus central planning, like attempts at characterizing capitalism as an 'emergent order,' has only ever been propaganda for the rich.
Why can't things be run differently? In 1920, an economist tried to devise an answer when he wrote about the economic calculation problem (ECP). To make economic decisions requires we have a common value to compare things by. How else do we know what to produce? A shipment of steel could be used to make cars. It could also make pipes, or microwaves, or any other number of things. How do we decide? There isn't a simple, objective answer you could produce in a lab test. It's a matter of finding the right proportion of what everybody wants. So the critical question is, what do people want? How do we determine that? The argument people are making when they invoke the ECP is a socialist economy couldn't determine this, and will thus always mismanage resources. (This is the origin of the 'commie no food' meme.)
The capitalist price system does provide some information about demand, as prices do reflect how real people are spending their money and thus implies an expression of preference. But how much information this actually produces is exaggerated, along with just how meaningful that information is, while its various problems and shortcomings are swept under the rug. Ludwig von Mises, the economist who first described the ECP, meanwhile does nothing to make the case for why no other method to gauge demand is feasible. He asserts the price system itself couldn't be replicated in socialism, but only because his grasp of socialism was basically if one big company bought the whole economy and prices were arbitrarily set by bureaucrats sitting in a room somewhere. The only point he made in the end is planning requires information, which is mundane.
There's numerous ways to gauge demand. The one I'm most interested is just plainly asking, which I have no problem calling the survey method. Take a random sample of the population every so often, have them rank things by importance. That's it. It would create the same type of information as the price system currently does, if not better. What interests me about this method is its simplicity. It could of course be built upon and expanded over time, and other methods could be incorporated in addition to it, but a general belief of mine is that movements require simple ideas as their foundation, and on this subject I can think of nothing more straightforward and easy to understand than 'to determine what people want, ask them.' It's the ideal starting point.
A big objection I always hear to this idea is people wouldn't answer realistically. People would say they want caviar and lobster every meal, or something like that. But obviously we could present choices and trade-offs in such a way that reflects how difficult things are to provide. It's not a choice between bread and lobster, it's a choice between lots of bread and some lobster, because lobster takes more labour and resources to obtain. The suggestion we couldn't figure out something so basic helps to betray how much of the 'skepticism' about socialism is just dull status-quo bias. The argument is practically 'an idea must be bad if I can imagine it being implemented poorly.'
The other big objection is people don't know what they want. After all, how they reply to a survey doesn't always align with how people really behave. And I suppose that's true, but I also don't accept that it's a disadvantage. In fact, I assert the opposite. This objection touches on a big reason why socialist planning would be so advantageous.
There are those who think what people say they want can be discarded. It's what people do, in practice, that matters. To put that differently, it's not people's stated preference that we should care about, but only their revealed preference. That's what reflects our true desires. To put it mildly, this couldn't be more wrong.
If asked clearly and given time to think and produce a deliberate answer, what people say they want is a much better way to determine their values than observing what they do when put in a system designed to influence their behaviour otherwise. The simplest example: a person can be on a diet and want to lose weight, but if we leave a box of doughnuts in the break room every day their behaviour might not reflect that.
And the capitalist economy is one big 'break room with a box of doughnuts.' It's an environment we have no control of, built to modify our behaviour in whatever way is most profitable for the rich. There's obviously a significant disconnect between what people truly want from life and how they end up behaving in capitalism, and to suggest that's not a problem because however they behave is their 'true selves' is an astoundingly stupid oversimplification of human behaviour. It's logically akin to arguing drug addiction isn't a problem because the addict chooses to keep doing drugs, which proves that must be what they want.
Most people fall into traps they'd vote against if they could. Like how supermarkets put all those impulse-buy candies and chocolates near the checkout till, or put common staples like rick, milk, or eggs at the very back of the store to ensure you have to walk through all the aisle to get to them. CostCo, the second largest retailer in the world, regularly moves all their inventory around for no fucking reason beyond ensuring people don't know where anything is and they have to wander around the store looking for stuff, because that way they're forced to walk by and look at more products, and on average end up buying more. Can you imagine if we had an economy that was designed to be efficient, instead of there being whole industries dedicated to this kind of manipulative bullshit?
And capitalists love peddling addiction. Tobacco isn't as cool as it used to be in the West, but it's still a huge problem in some countries, and nicotine products are making a comeback. Meanwhile, alcohol is still going strong. Where I live, they've been putting beer and wine in supermarkets now, predictably always near checkout. And let's not forget sugar and caffeine are highly addictive, and many products have both, including products marketed to children. Did you know in the USA, obesity has doubled over the last two decades?
Gambling can be addictive. That includes not only predatory bullshit like casinos and lotteries (which should all be burned to the ground), but an increasingly large part of the video game industry, as developers incorporate more and more gambling elements into popular titles to better manipulate people into spending money they'll regret.
Pornography is addictive. Food in general can be an addiction. Arguably shopping, consumption, the thrill of going out and spending money and getting to open new things, can itself be an addiction.
This could veer off into a debate about when exactly a behaviour becomes an addiction, but the exact application of that terminology is far from the point. No, the point is how in the moment of consumption, people aren't as rational and in-control-of-things as it's convenient to portray them. So much of our consumption is impulsive, irrational, and manipulated for the benefit of producers. A system where normal people were able to exert actual control over production would naturally be much, much better at determining what things people truly value than what we have.
And as far as I could tell that was the best critique of the survey idea they could muster.

2/9/21 Update: Additional info posted here

Funko is a good company with solid performance that is still trading at a reasonable price.
Check out my DD below:
Funko (FNKO)
Share Price (02/01/21) : $12.90
Share Price (09/16/19) : $27.86
Short Interest (1/26/21) : 14%
Next Earnings Release: March 2021
Funko Inc. is an American company that manufactures licensed pop culture collectibles, best known for its licensed vinyl figurines and bobbleheads. They have over 1,000 licenses across music, video games, film, TV, sports and many other pop culture properties. Some of their most popular licensed brands include Marvel, Disney, Star Wars, Pokemon, Fortnite, NBA, NFL, MLB, DC Comics, and a variety of anime properties.
Several points below support the belief that Funko’s revenue grew during the 2020 holiday season and could continue well into 2021:
· Increasing search traffic for Funko products
· Direct sales growth is driving increased revenue and profitability
· Parents are buying more gifts for their kids due to COVID
· People have more disposable income from staying at home and not going out
· Expansion of new products and licensees continuing through 2021
· Collectible investments like Funko POP! figures are exploding in value and popularity
· Recent analyst commentary, valuation, and financials are positive
FUNKO’S SEARCH TRAFFIC REACHES AN ALL-TIME HIGH IN Q4 2020
“Funko” google trends search traffic was up 20-30% in Q4 2020 (vs. Q4 2019)
Searches for “Funko” were up 2x in December vs the beginning of November 2020
After falling in December, “Funko” searches are trending back up to all-time-high levels
FUNKO’S DIRECT SALES INITIATIVES DRIVING HIGHER REVENUE & MARGIN
Funko Direct Sales (B2C) grew significantly in Q3 and likely to continue into Q4
· B2C business as a percentage of sales increased to 8% in Q3 2020 from 4% during the prior year.
· Funko’s e-commerce site grew over 150% vs. the prior year in Q3 2020
· The number of SKU’s on Funko’s e-commerce site rose tenfold since June 2020
“We went from only 200 of our own products [on our website] as late as June this year, to now well over 2,000 products available on our website.” – Funko CEO, Brian Mariotti
Funko’s first ever Selena Pop! sold out online in just 40 minutes.
Funko’s Q3 2020 Gross Profit % and Operating Margin % were near all-time-highs for the company
· Funko’s Q3 Gross Profit Percentage of 38.6% was its second highest ever (behind only Q1 2020)
· Funko’s Q3 Operating Profit Percentage of 10.8% was its second highest ever (behind only Q4 2018)
· As Funko continues to grow it’s B2C e-commerce sales in Q4 and beyond, it is possible that gross profit and operating profit percentages could rise as well
Retail customers were able to shift their Brick & Mortar inventory to their e-commerce channels to Funko unit sales
· Funko resellers who didn’t sell online were severely impacted by Brick & Mortar closures during COVID stay-at-home orders. As 2020 progressed, some of these retailers were able to create online stores (e.g.- Shopify, Amazon, eBay, etc.) through which they could sell their Funko inventory.
· Larger retailers that already had an omni-channel presence were able to shift their sales inventory from their Brick & Mortar stores to online fulfilment.
Funko has also created a mini-Pop! factory at its headquarters where customers can make their own custom Funko at a price of $25 each
· According to Funko, you can customize your Pop! using thousands of combinations. It’s “Think Build-A-Bear meets Funko Pop!” according to CEO Brian Mariotti.
· With a $25 price point, the margins are likely higher than the average Pop! figure that retails for between $10 to $15
PARENTS BUYING MORE GIFTS FOR THEIR KIDS DUE TO COVID
Parents likely splurged on their kids out of guilt of having shelter at home because of restrictions and to keep them occupied while they had to work at home.
· “Faced with rising transmission of the virus, state restrictions on retailers and heightened political and economic uncertainty, consumers chose to spend on gifts that lifted the spirits of their families and friends and provided a sense of normalcy given the challenging year. We believe President-elect Biden’s stimulus proposal, with direct payments to families and individuals, and further aid for small businesses and tools to keep businesses open, will keep the economy growing.” NRF President Matthew Shay
· “2020 was an unprecedented year for the U.S. toy industry. The growth we’ve seen in the toy industry speaks to the fact that parents are willing to put their children’s happiness above all else. The industry’s resiliency is very much underpinned by the reality that, in times of hardship, families look to toys to help keep their children engaged, active, and delighted. Put simply, toys are a big part of the happiness equation.” Juli Lennett - VP, U.S. Toys at NPD
Toy sales were strong in 2020 as US retail sales of toys was up 16% vs 2019; driven by pandemic spending
· According to NPD, “Much of the growth in 2020 was directly correlated to the COVID-19 pandemic and the changing consumer behavior associated with widespread lockdowns and school closures, the disposable income diverted from other types of entertainment to toys, as well as the onset of federal stimulus checks.”
Consumer spending on toys increased measurably due to lockdowns; with strong performance continuing through the holidays
· Per NPD, “While toy sales through mid-March 2020 were flat vs. 2019, widespread lockdown measures led to an abrupt increase in sales. This was further amplified by the distribution of stimulus checks beginning in April, resulting in the strongest month of growth for the year in May (+38%). Toy industry growth peaked again in October with an increase of 33% when the holiday season kicked off with Amazon Prime Day along with other retailer deals the same week.”
Key retail sources reporting significant sales growth during Q4 2020 suggest Funko sales performance was strong
· Target Q4 sales were fantastic showing signs of retail strength with a consumer that overlaps well with the Funko
> Overall comparable sales were up 17.2%
> Comparable digital sales were up over 100%
> Store-originated comparable sales were up 4.2%
> Store traffic was up 4.3%
> Average ticket size was up 12.3%
· GameStop Q4 sales were solid; showing additional potential for Funko sales
> Same store sales were up 4.8% in Q4 2020
> Online sales increased 309% in Q4 2020
· According to the NRF, 2020 Holiday Retail Sales were up 8.3% compared to the prior year despite the pandemic
> A surge in online shopping drove the increase (rising 32% vs. 2019)
> The increase of 8.3% was over double the average increase of 3.5% that the industry had seen over the last five years.
MORE DISPOSABLE INCOME TO SPEND AT HOME BY NOT GOING OUT
The National Retail Federation (NRF) says that strong retail performance has been driven by consumers with stimulus checks and extra savings from not going out or traveling
· “There was a massive boost to consumer wallets this season. Consumers were able to splurge on holiday gifts because of increased money in their bank accounts from the stimulus payments they received earlier in the year and the money they saved by not traveling, dining out, or attending entertainment events” – NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
Spending on “experiences” fell significantly in 2020
· The US Travel Association forecasts that spending on travel fell $500 billion in 2020 from $1.1 trillion in 2019
> The industry has lost about 40% of its direct travel jobs (about 3.5 million jobs) in 2020; driven by a reduction in business travel
> Foreign visitors to the US fell about 75% in 2020; driving a $119 billion reduction in travel spending
· Concert spending is down dramatically
> Live Nation reported a 98% decline in concert revenue in Q2 2020 and a 95% decline in concert revenue in Q3 2020
> About 5.2 million tickets were refunded in Q3 2020 and 23.3 million tickets had been refunded so far in 2020 (as of the end of Q3)
· Movie theater attendance is down substantially
> AMC theaters saw a 97% decline in attendance and a 91% decline in revenue in Q3 2020
> Cinemark saw a 96% decline in revenue
> Marcus Corporation (which also owns hotels and restaurants) saw a 84% decline in revenue
> Studio Movie Grill filed for bankruptcy
· Other anecdotal information points to more stay-at-home activity decreasing recreational spending
> Chuck E Cheese’s declared bankruptcy
> Dave & Busters is considering bankruptcy and plans layoffs of +1,000
> CiCi’s Pizza declares bankruptcy
> Starbucks saw fewer customers, reduced store hours, increased store closures, and a 5% decline in revenues in Q4 2020. This has led them to plan a shift to more “to-go” formats
> Many Las Vegas Hotels and Casinos have decided to close “part-time” during the week due to lower attendance and travel.
These include Encore, Rio, Linq, Planet Hollywood, Mandalay Bay, Park MGM, and Mirage
The majority of food buffets at the major hotels and casinos have been shuttered for the time being
Stimulus checks and other government programs to support consumer spending provide tailwinds for retail activity
· The US government authorized more than $10,000 per person in stimulus spending in 2020 over the course of five relief bills totaling $3.5 trillion
· More stimulus spending is expected; including a potential $1.9 trillion package that could include an additional $1,400 in stimulus checks
MORE SKUS / LICENSES ARE GROWING AND EXPECTED TO CONINUE STRONG
Active properties continue to rise and are expected to grow well into the future
· The number of active properties in Q3 2020 grew 15% over 2019
· Active properties grew from 644 in Q2 to 715 in Q3 2020
· The potential universe for Funko Pops! is limitless as new films, tv shows, musicians, anime characters, sports stars, and other media properties are created every year.
Some of the hot properties for this year and beyond
· Star Wars: Baby Yoda, Mandalorian, Rey, Valentine’s Day, etc.
· Marvel: WandaVision, Deadpool, Lucha Libre, Spiderman, Venom
· Anime: Dragon Ball Z, Naruto, Bakugan, My Hero Academia
· Films: Harry Potter, The Goonies, The Mummy, Fast & Furious
· TV: The Office, Umbrella Academy, The Queen’s Gambit, The Simpsons
· Sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, WWE
· Others: Disney, Pokemon, etc.
Retail exclusives can grow the potential universe of licenses and increase retailer buy-in
· For example: A retailer like GameStop could lobby Funko to make a GameStop exclusive of the WallStreetBets Kid like this person suggested here. (The exclusive Pop! would be made into a limited edition and sold only to GameStop to sell at their stores)
COLLECTIBLE INVESTMENTS ARE GROWING IN VALUE & POPULARITY
· Funko: The average Pops! Figure has a retail price from between $10 and $15 which allows most people an affordable entry point into collecting. Over time some Pops! Figures increase substantially in price; from $50 to $100 to even several thousand dollars. While some collectors buy Pops! as primarily an investment, many more buy them as a way to show their fandom. Whether they are avid Star Wars, Harry Potter, Pokemon, Sports, or Anime fans; collectors build large collections and show them off to friends.
· Sports Cards: To those paying attention, sports cards have been on a massive run with some cards worth more than your parent’s house and your sister’s car. Since the pandemic started, the demand for sports collectibles from basketball to football to soccer (and many others) has skyrocketed. Countless videos of box-breaks and pack openings have become the norm on social media. Some of these boxes are being purchased for tens of thousands with “hits” ranging from several hundred to hundreds of thousands.
· Collector’s Universe: This company that grades sports cards and other collectibles has tripled in value since June 2020. The number of sports collectors grading cards has exploded as demand rises. The popularity of grading sports cards is expected to maintain as prices continue to rise and the hobby becomes more mainstream.
ANALYST COMMENTARY AND FINANCIALS ARE A POSTIVE FOR THE STOCK
Piper Sandler: Upgraded Funko from “Neutral” to “Overweight” (raising their price target from $6 to $12).
· Analyst Erin Murphy sees evidence of “subsequent revenue pillars” with their recent launch of Snapsies at 800 Target stores; along with an expansion into board games and its digital efforts, which include a newly launched website in six European countries.
Valuation Comparison: Market Cap / Revenue (TTM)
· Funko: MC - $604 million / Rev - $640 million (0.9x sales)
· Mattel: MC - $6.27 billion / Rev - $4.43 billion (1.4x sales)
· Hasbro: MC - $13.13 billion / Rev - $5.17 billion (2.5x sales)
Key Financial Trends For Funko
· Q3 2020 EPS (Adjusted) = $0.31
> Third highest ever (only Q4 2018 & Q3 2019 were higher)
· Q3 2020 Revenue = $191 million
> Fourth highest ever (only Q4 2018, Q3 2019, and Q4 2019 were higher)
· Q3 2020 Revenue increase vs prior quarter of 94%
> Q1 and Q2 2020 saw significant declines due to COVID
> Q3 2020 only down 14% vs Q3 2019 despite Q2 2020 being down 49%
> Q3 2020 strength driven by Funko adapting quickly to online in the US market. (Q4 2020 revenue growth could be aided substantially by Funko’s development of their e-commerce shop in Europe.)
· Q3 2020 SG&A was reduced 20% vs. the prior year as Funko rationalizes costs and adjusts to focus more on D2C e-commerce
TL;DR
After a tough summer, Funko sales have rocketed back in Q3 to near where they were pre-pandemic; setting up a potentially historic earnings for Q4 2020. Google search activity suggests that Funko is as popular as ever and is set up well for a strong year in 2021. People are spending less on “going out;” instead buying things to use at home and presents for their kids. As time passes, Funko’s status as a popular collectible only continues to gain momentum.
Their direct sales initiative allows Funko to capture additional margin by sidestepping traditional brick and mortar retail to reach their customers. Investments in collectible products like Pops! and sports cards continue to increase in popularity and price. And the company continues to release even more products beyond Pops!; including games and apparel. While some Wall Street Analysts have already begun to take notice, a strong Q4 earnings announcement can drive even more attention to the stock.
Positions: Long Shares & Calls
Disclosure: I am long FNKO. This is not investment advice. I reserve the right to buy or sell FNKO without updating this thread. Do your own research and share (or not share) with the community in this thread. Thank you to the others on Reddit that shared this idea earlier.
Feedback: If you have any additional information, ideas, or critiques please make sure to comment. It is great to get the perspective of others when making an investment. Also that information can be incorporated into future posts and updates.
Previous DD: Herman Miller

The results are in for Match 9. The winner is…
William Eyelash, with a score of 68 to Jacob Brown’s 68, tie broken by a higher ‘categories taken’ count!

Category	Winner	Point Totals	Comments
Popularity	The Graveyard Shift	16-13
Quality	The Graveyard Shift	22-20	Reasoning
JoJolity	Masters of Funky Action	20-25	Reasoning
Conduct	Tie	10-10

William Eyelash had taken the lead in this match, and though as a leader, he hadn’t done the best job, getting Jack visibly injured, as a combatant, he had managed to withstand the aggressive and area-painting onslaughts of himself from not so long ago, and of a much more experienced version of the partner he’d once had.
It had made him catch his breath, reflect on all that had come to this point, to recall that moment where Ocean Eyes had been the one to embrace and protect him.
“Yes… I understand now,” William answered, walking carefully through the snow, “you had something good going there, Jacob Brown, but… Y-you didn’t seriously think I would fall for tricks like those coming from my own Stand, did you?” Didn’t even know it could do all that, though… Even now, I can still grow, huh?
That put a smile on his face, then, as he approached the injured Jack, helping him up. “You still with us?”
“Hee hee, I’ll peachy keen as peachy cream in a little while… But right now I’m very much hurting yes.” Jack chuckled, resting his eyes and looking things over. “In the end, though… I called that other me in the hoodie an impostor, but he knew my Stand better than I did. He was even more me than me… What does that mean?” He looked down. “Am… Am I the lie?”
“I, uh… I don’t know how to answer that,” William said, “but… You’re one of the most genuine people I’ve ever met. And, uh… You helped me out a ton. Sorry for getting you hurt, uh, not that used to leading, but you really seemed to trust in me…”
“We all make mistakes!” Jack said, not minding that at all, “but… I suppose you’re right. I won’t let some stranger get in my head… But I guess that all of us were telling the truth in our hearts, then.” He looked to the defeated ‘Billy’ and the slightly-older Jacob, both bleeding and unconscious, the latter falling much faster. Already, a strange white blob was moving through the snowfield towards them, examining them. “So I guess we spare them today... if they survive what we’ve given already!”
Neither would realize it for another few minutes, but for Jacob Brown, those words had proven prophetic.
“S-still though… If you’ve really lived a full life here, become the same person with the same Stand, same memories,” William said, “does that mean that can just… Happen? But how, wh-when really, by probability and stuff…”
“So is the unusual burden of ‘Fate,’ felt strongest upon this city,” a familiar, altered voice spoke, and sitting on a park bench, William and Jack spied none other than the Institute’s head, still heavily layered as he always was.
“Oh No…” William muttered.
“‘Oh no?’ Is this a problem of a person?” Jack asked, then giggled. “Heeheh, just a little joke. I know about the Institute, of course!”
“The ‘Fortuna Double’ might exist at any point in time, for any Stand User from outside its walls, and no matter how irreconcilable the circumstances, how ‘impossible’ it should be for two people to have the same fated path, even for the slight differences of the city… The ‘Same Person’ can unquestionably exist. Wouldn’t be surprised if you, ‘Jack,’ and this ‘Billy’ here were simply the first you encountered who were close enough to your age that you immediately noticed.” No tilted his head. “Why, even that cute creature who followed the elder Jacob Brown is, literally, the same being as the Bert that just died… Yet, unlike them, bound still by fate. I wonder, then, what will prove to be the same, to be indomitable ‘fate,’ and what will prove not so.”
“I think sometimes about if I’ve ever had one here… Or will, in the future. That sounds utterly boring if so, though. I refuse to know my fate; it’s vexing enough of a limit on myself that I’m burdened by, knowing it’s predetermined to exist at all.”
“Uh… Right.” This was heavy, huh? William tried to figure out what it all meant. “Fortuna Doubles, huh… So they’re both real, completely and absolutely, then?”
“Precisely!” No remarked, cheerily. “Would you like to speak more about this? Go on, sit with me.”
Only a few hours remain still in your window of time to vote in a match between an Agnes and some Guy in a crowded concert hall brought down to size.
Scenario:
Alexis Williams was sinking.
Every day, the myriad of matters which plagued the outwardly-cheerful woman’s mind seemed to be growing worse and worse. The unhealthy relationship she’d had with her Stand had turned into an even worse sort of tension, a fundamental disconnect with an aspect of herself which she literally could not be away from.
It hadn’t been uncommon for some time for her to wonder if a given day would be her last. Over the last several months, those feelings had only grown and grown in their intensity, in their power over her, and it had even begun to show outwardly.
It wouldn’t be long now, surely, before-
Alexis’ hotel room door was kicked so hard that one of the hinges flew off, and through it launched, not an attacker like she might have imagined, some hostile Stand User out to invade her home, but something arguably even worse.
“ALEXIS!”
Her friend and fellow Eighth Circle mainstay, Bucket.
She clutched her forehead and forced a smile, turning away from what she’d been using to get through the day and towards him. Already, she could tell that the chaos agent, formerly known for the octopus on his head, now sporting sick sarashi and a pompadour, was here with intentions ranging from ‘good’ to ‘no intentions whatsoever,’ and it wasn’t in her nature to tell someone like that to fuck off.
“Bucket! Hey!” She said, an edge to her chipper tone. “You, uh, surprised me there… You’re gonna fix that door, right?” She blinked. “Wait, weren’t you at that Metra show? I thought I’d heard everyone there was shrunk down to-”
“Forget about that!” He answered, earnestly drawing closer, grasping her by the wrists suddenly, yet at once gently. “Alexis, I don’t know what’s going on with your head or heart or anything else, but I know I can’t just stand around outside your door watching you get more and more miserable! Even I noticed, so it must be really really bad whatever’s hurting you inside! I’m an acolyte of the boogie now, the example of Rudolf Pavlova, so I can’t let a friend be in need!”
“Rudolf…” Alexis had heard of his passing, so soon after helping her put on such a wonderful show, and been unsurprised. Wait, though, since when did Bucket- Ah, never mind. She shook her head, looking him in the eye. The highly chaotic, unstable hellraiser of the Judecca Highrollers was giving her puppy-dog eyes. “Did… Did you want to do something?”
“Yes! I want to make you better!” Bucket exclaimed, pulling away and bouncing upwards. “So c’mon! Let’s head out… Make some trouble, follow no rules but our own and to be happy!” He stopped, then, pulling back a moment, as if reading the room once again, folding his arms over his chest. “I mean, if you want to.”
Alexis thought it over. He meant well, clearly, and wished dearly to cheer her up… A person didn’t need to understand the nuances of the soul to see when a person was hurting, and to reach out for them.
She doubted it would make things better for her, but who’s to say it needed to be?
“That sounds great,” she said, relaxing her forced cheer slightly and nodding. “Maybe it’s what I need right about now.”
The Woods at Aurelio - Midday - Near the Northern Bridge
“So you’re sure that he’s got a base out here?”
“Crystal clear!” Tiger ‘Glitch’ Ricky answered Effie Linder, tilting her head one way and then the other as she and her Stand attempted to scope out the sounds of the area. “There was only basically one cop left and then Ugo made them quit, took the place over, paid them off… So now he just sorta comes and goes around that little old ‘empty’ police station!”
“If he hangs out at the town’s police station,” Effie asked, confused at her coworker’s demeanor, “then why are we out this far away from it?”
“Because!” Glitch answered, huffing and folding her arms. “I said he comes and goes! And prrobably isn’t there right now. Mrr, you’re the one who wanted to come out here with me, so let’s keep searching!”
“…” Effie nodded. “You know what, fair enough. He never was the type to stay still long, so looking where the Watch is going would be a start…”
Since that day she fought that shithead twink Agnes and that Italian twink Arpeggi at Tigran Sins’ casino, Glitch had been gradually, increasingly mulling over the idea of becoming something not so much unlike the latter… A vigilante, out to not just cause problems on purpose, but sometimes even solve them on purpose, in the way a Stand User knew best: shenanigans and violence.
Hearing about the way that Ugo McBaise had sabotaged the capture of the very villains whose challenge had inspired her to act, had directly gotten people killed and responsible for dangerous people staying at large, that felt like reason plenty to break out ‘shenanigans and violence’ on him.
Effie caught her on the way out, and had said then, “what, am I gonna wait around for Fira to send me on some bullshit errand? If you’re turning that piece of shit’s head concave, I’m in too.”
And so, enthusiastically, Effie had joined, and the pair had been circling the outskirts of town atop Vida Loca ever since, Effie also using her murder of crows for further observations than what her eyes alone could tell her.
Glitch’s ears perked, as did her Stand. “…something’s up ahead. A bunch of people hanging out by the river…”
“Hm? Yeah, I think I see it!” Effie remarked, producing a pair of binoculars to look that way. “VALKYRIE guys… You know what that means up here, don’t you?”
Though most of the company fell in line with Rushen Smith’s new leadership, it was something of an open secret that Ugo McBaise had very specifically drilled the former Neighborhood Watch, which had become a new unit of the company, into being loyal to him, not to his rank. Fears being stoked about the potential of ANVIL going to war with the town was all that kept them from being disbanded outright, feeling that people familiar with the area were best-suited for watching it.
Glitch hissed. “Alright, then, you know what we’ve gotta do!”
“Wait, it looks like they’re being talked through something by…” Effie adjusted the binoculars, peered through the crowd, and recognized a very identifiable vest… and a bald head, shining in the midday sun. “Mr. Jones?”
Mr. Jones had been having a good few weeks himself, ever since his earlier, very successful outing with Dread. It had ended in him successfully acquiring not just any ‘Memento,’ but perhaps one of the city’s most dangerous, and the life-fearing compliance of the kidnapped alleged immortal who led it to him, taught him its secrets.
Apparently some kitty somewhere was sad about that, but eh, when you’re making an omelette, yeah?
“Wait wait wait,” he said affably to the crowd of VALKYRIE agents he’d once called a neighborhood watch, “you say a guy in a blue pomp and a dancer’ve been… Spray painting your cars? Throwin’ dead fish at ya? Sprayin’ ink to get away?” He snickered. “You’ve had a hell of a morning with this prankster pair, then, if they keep givin’ you the slip.”
“Please, Mr. Jones,” a young man said as he continued to wipe fish guts off of his helmet visor, “I… I know, technically, you aren’t our leader anymore, that the bosses don’t like you much, but.” He sniffled, earnestly. “But you’ve always been so good to us, even since then! You’ve been loyal to us, and we still love you for it, no matter what they say you did!”
“Heheh… Hearin’ you say that makes it worth it, y’know that?” Mr. Jones wiped a finger under the eye of his sunglasses, looking them over. “Think I know who might be the whodunnit-er here, actually. Just gimme a hot minute to track the guy down, and-”
“Got a lot of nerve talking to my men, Jones.”
Everyone went silent, then, at the sound of a hammer, for dramatic effect, being dragged along the pavement of the road, then swung in the air by an absolute cinderblock of a man.
“You got a problem, and you come running to him because he happened to be passing by? What happened to using your damn heads?” Ugo chewed his subordinates out, then, before looking to the neighborhood watch founder. “I think you’ve confused these people, Worm, by still keeping up that paternal reliable neighbor shit. They’ve all been taught well and good that they listen to me, not some replacement,” he pointed his hammer forward, then, threateningly, “and sure as hell not some serial killing scum!”
“Now now now, Ugo, c’mon, it’s clear they like us both, yeah? So let’s just… Clear the confusion up, if y’care that much!” Mr. Jones reached for the sabre sheathed at his side, then, drawing it with a golden sheen; he’d fished it out of the wreckage of Capital Island one day after it wasn’t destroyed in Jack’s ritual. He, too, pointed it forward. “I know the language you speak, so let’s talk in that.”
Ugo grunted, then, swinging his hammer back over his shoulder as a very feminine form appeared behind him, looking like something of a curvy, thickset cowgirl. “Aw, Ugo and I concur, y’all know we’re down t’bash some heads and take a name or two! Why, sugar, we’re about to put you down like a sick dog!”
Mr. Jones got a snicker out of the odd word choices of ‘She’s a Big Boy,’ finding the contrast between Stand and User in all but their brutal aggression amusing; sometimes he’d tried in the past to talk to him and unpack what the Stand actually said about Ugo’s soul, but it was a conversation the very straightforward, taciturn former football star never quite liked to have.
Jones gestured with his head, then. “Watch, get back to HQ, yeah? Whoever you see walk through that door, few hours from now, respect that, yeah?”
“Uh… S-sure?” The ex-Watch member who’d been speaking said, turning around. “C’mon, guys, let’s get pizza or something… I guess.”
Alexis had been sitting by the bank of the Wormwood River, mulling over the shenanigans Bucket had encouraged her to join in with, ever since she’d happened to spot all the Watch members they’d been harassing seemingly surround somebody; it was an action which led Bucket to say ‘just gimme a minute’ before diving into the water.
It was a shame, honestly. This harmless problem causing had actually been kind of fun, in a way.
Bucket splashed up soon after. “I knew it!”
“Knew what?”
“There was this bald guy talking to all the VALKYRIE guys about all our awesome pranks, and then that no-good bastard Ugo showed up and they started slugging it out and moving towards a sewer grate. And then, you wouldn’t believe it… The bald guy turned into Conqueror Worm!”
That gave Alexis pause, then. He was here? “We… We should probably go somewhere else, then! If people out there are fighting, I want no part in it whatsoever… And you probably shouldn’t anger guys like that either.”
“I can’t just turn away from this, Alexis! I’m here to cheer you up, and that guy… When he helped kidnap you, that’s when you started to feel even worse! So, I’m going to roll up there, give him my fiercest look possible, and make him apologize for being mean to you.”
That… Wasn’t where Alexis was expecting Bucket to end that sentence, but it made her sigh, momentarily. Her mood was good and ruined now anyway by these revelations, and Bucket was suggesting something dangerous nonetheless. “Look, Bucket, not everybody is good-natured, okay? You can’t just walk up to somebody and-”
“But I will!” Bucket insisted, flexing. “Because I have the power of ‘the boogie’ on my side, don’t you get it? This will cheer you so far up! You don’t even need to come along if you don’t want, because I dunno I might punch Ugo a bit if he hits first! But either way, you will get your apology, I swear it!”
Then, Bucket ran off. To confront two very dangerous brick shithouses of men. In a sewer.
“He’s going to get himself killed…” Alexis felt awful now, standing and looking Southward. She could just leave, couldn’t she? Bucket even said he wasn’t expecting her to follow when it could turn into a fight… In the end, were humans not all fated to fall victim to their own mistakes, their own vices and eccentricities?
…I can’t just leave a friend like that, even if I’m feeling bad.
“Bucket!” Alexis called, beginning to run after him. “Wait up for me! I’m coming along too! Let’s… Get that apology!”
She was having to babysit the guy who came to help her out, now, was that it?
“Ghhgh, it’s a two-for-one special on the worst in the city, isn’t it?” Glitch complained, trailing Effie down a ladder into the sewers. “First we’re tailing Ugo, and then Mr. Jones, and now they’re fighting… I don’t even know who’s worse!”
“One’s a serial killer, and yeah super dangerous,” Effie pointed out, “and the other keeps getting a lot of other people killed with his own dangerous stupidity… Keeps causing us problems, and helped escalate that warzone. I don’t like being an enemy of ANVIL, Glitch… I really don’t.”
“Mmrhh… They’re gonna get a piece of our best attacks.”
The pair, then, touched ground, and Effie saw around them the signs of battle, of pieces of the ground seemingly terraformed, nicked, busted-up, and the sounds of clashing in the distance. Undoubtedly them.
Then, though, as they stepped forward, soon after, a pair literally dropped down behind them, one after the other, first a scarred, pompadoured idiot doing a cool roll, then a redheaded gymnast landing coolly not far behind.
“Wait a minute… Bucket? And, uh, that performer from that thing everyone liked… Alexis Williams?” Effie remarked, backing away a bit, trying to figure out the pair’s intentions. “What are you doing here?”
“Oh, you know!” Alexis tilted her head, very blatant in how forced the chipper tone had become, especially by the nature of what she’d said next. “Losing control of my life, letting weird things get out of hand… But I’m here now. I’ve committed to my choice, and I hear sounds further back. So, Bucket! Let’s get a move-on, yeah? I don’t particularly care much for being in a sewer…”
Bucket, however, had been unmoving since he had begun to stand. Glitch, too, faced directly his way, allowing him to look her in the eye as a strange expression came over them both.
Effie and Alexis, then, were deeply confused, until Vida Loca appeared, and the sounds of beatboxing seemed to fill the air.
“Wh-” Effie was taken aback. “Glitch, we’ve got something going on here. You’re not seriously going to-”
“Hey fishman, the cat’s here to catch ya / Tiger ‘Glitch’ Ricky on the mic comin’ atcha / In a hotel or a diner or even a sewer / My rhymes gonna run you through like a skewer!”
This was physically painful for Alexis to watch. She covered her mouth as she prepared for Bucket to open his, well aware that half of their social circle was probably going to slap him for whatever came out.
“Name’s Bucket, B-U-C-K-E-T / Got beat but came back now with the Boogie! / Was chasin’ a killer but this fish can still school you / With my friend Alexis here, my rhymes’ll hit true!”
“…hit true?” Alexis couldn’t help but find that groan-inducingly hilarious, though her momentary joy, then, was cut short by the fact that Effie, meanwhile, was absolutely seething.
“C’mon, do this literally any other time!” She exasperatedly proclaimed, tugging at Glitch’s arm, “we can’t let those assholes get away, c’mon, you know we need to cut this out and-”
Bucket threw a fish at Effie’s face.
Everyone went silent, then, as it slid off and hit the ground, her own expression dry with displeasure.
“Did… Did you just throw a fish at me?”
“Yeah! Because you keep ruining the vibes!” Bucket huffed. “So cut it the hell out, or I will do it again!”
“Really now,” Effie said, keeping her hand by her slingshot and beginning to walk further Southward. “If you keep distracting us, I’ll have to get you out of our way.”
One of Bucket’s massive knives, then, was drawn, blade resting centimeters from Effie’s face. “Don’t threaten me, alright? That’s completely against the spirit of this.”
Glitch hissed, then, her own mood ruined, “hey! You can’t just pull a weapon on my friend like that, even if she’s being a spoilsport! That’s way over-the-line!”
As both sides fell back, not losing sight of the other as they attempted to pull away and regroup, it was clear that three-fourths of the quartet had been angered enough at one another in an instant that a fight was about to brew.
Alexis had been deliberately trying not to send out her Stand this entire time, wanting some semblance of mental distance from it after their disagreements had turned increasingly mean, her literal fighting with herself and grappling with her demons leaving her wanting absolutely none of this.
Bucket was about to get himself killed over, easily, the stupidest thing she had ever seen a fight start over.
This day has gone from sad to fun to the most frustrating I have ever seen… I tried to make a good day out of it, but here I am now. I can’t just abandon Bucket after he tried for me… But boy is he trying me.
OPEN THE GAME!
(Credit to CaptainSpooky27 for yet more awesome match art!)
Location: One of Los Fortuna’s sewer pathways, specifically far on the Northwestern outskirts of the town of Aurelio. These are one of the many entrances to the elaborate and interconnected underground networks of the city, though you’re in a pretty straightforward section of it that doesn’t branch off all that many surprising ways.
Not far South from here, but distant enough that it won’t ever affect this match, you can hear the sounds of a simultaneous battle between Mr. Jones and Ugo McBaise.
The area here is 63 meters by 33 meters with each tile being 3 by 3 meters. With TGS on the left and JHR on the right, represented by their character tokens.
The light grey tiles are the concrete paths, the darker grey tiles are the walls, and the blue tiles are sewer water. The walls are solid all the way through.
The sewer itself is actually relatively clean here, as clean as underground sewer water can be really. The water level is about 1 foot below the walkways and the water is 3 meters deep.
The ceiling is 4 meters above the walkways and the walkways have cheap metal guardrails between themselves and the water, as represented by the bolded outlines. The orange rectangles are the metal bridges between the walkways and the yellow circles are open manhole covers with light streaming through. The grey triangles are strange stalagmite-like protrusions, likely somehow created by Ugo and Jones’ fight. They match the same material as the stone walls, take up most of the walkway in width, and reach up to the ceiling.
Goal: RETIRE your opponents!
Additional Information: Logic is allowed to kill me(Kak) and both of the players who made me write this.

Team	Combatant	JoJolity
Judecca Highrollers	Bucket	"Are you mocking me? You went into the ground with your zipper? Are you copying me?" This whole thing has gotten so absolutely lame, that it’s killed your attempts to cheer your friend up and to have an awesome rap battle. So these guys are lame, and need to feel it! Make sure to find creative ways for your strategy to humiliate your opponents!
Judecca Highrollers	Alexis Williams	“You think that you can escape my punches when you're surrounded by walls of dirt?” Bucket’s gotten people into another frustrating situation by not thinking, huh? Well, you’ll get him out of this in one piece by using your head. Use this underground sewer environment to your advantage!
The Graveyard Shift	Effie Linder	“They say that sound reverberates better in liquids than in solids.” Seriously, Glitch? Seriously? Well, at least as long as you’re in this gnarly sewer, you can get something out of it by using your head. Use this underground sewer environment to your advantage!
The Graveyard Shift	Tiger “Glitch” Ricky	"Do you think you stand a chance against me by going underground?!" So now you and your opponents are going to be trying to one-up each other, huh? Bucket is an immensely clownable guy, dammit, and you were so hyped to do so verbally… Make sure to find creative ways for your strategy to humiliate your opponents!

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