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Why Valentine's Day and Aquarius Season Go Hand in Hand

this is an updated write-up of my Reframing Aquarius post from years ago. re-sharing for new and old subscribers alike. Happy Valentine's Day.
I want to disclaim, before you jump in, that Love in this write-up and in my opinion, is not a feat of romantic heroism or distilled in ambiguous twin-flame theory. It is not a Drew Barrymore rom-com or an episode of The Bachelor. The Love I speak of here transcends the human trappings of performance, expectation, and desperation. The Love I speak of here, the Aquarius Love, is dispassionate, impersonal, and vastly encompassing. It is a validation of humanity, in all its forms. It is the simple act of non-judgement and fundamental acceptance, that allows the human spirit space to breathe and be. That is my Love.
I want to disclaim, also, that this write-up is about the archetype of Aquarius, what exists in the ether independent of human form. I write from my personal brand of Mercury conjunct Neptune magic. Therefore, this is not necessarily about your Aquarius Sun mother, or your Aquarius Venus crush, or about historical figures of Aquarian nature and lore. It is about energy. What human beings do with that energy sprouts a myriad of potential. Below is one of those potentials.
Like Capricorn and Christmas, Aquarius and Valentine’s Day seem to be fundamentally at odds. Where the serious Saturn-ruled earth sign seems incongruous to merrymaking, so does the Saturn-ruled air sign seem an out-of-place home for one of the more romantic days of the year. If pop Astrology had its way, Aquarius would remain inextricably associated with stereotypes of distance and detachment. While those descriptors are certainly relevant, they are not the end of the story. You may find Taurus or Libra more fitting for Valentine’s Day, where the planet of love and romance is home. Or Pisces, where the planet of love and romance is exalted. Perhaps even Leo, where bouquets of red and pink balloons and Leo-ruled heart-shaped boxes of candy proudly boast and roar: love! But in removing the superficial layers that surround the misunderstood Aquarius, we can come to understand why Cupid’s foray through this cerebral sign is no accident, and rather points us towards a more fitting, yet shocking, conclusion: that the Aquarius love is deep and endless, that the Aquarian heart throbs with an alien passion. If this shocks you, good. Aquarius can enjoy a revolution, a subversion, a brain-fuck. And so may this revolution set Aquarius free from misinformation, and set ablaze a different way of thinking. If you choose to want to think it, that is—Aquarius doesn’t care!
Where Taurus makes love physical, Libra makes love delightful and Pisces makes love dreamy or transcendent—Aquarius makes love ideal. In any working definition of the word romance, “idealized love” makes a literal or alluded appearance. It could be said, then, that from Aquarius, the idea of love is born, even if not practiced. And from ideas, all things sprout. This isn’t altogether odd. Aquarius deals with intellect and logic. And ruled by Saturn, striving towards lasting standards of excellence and fairness, signposts of anything ideal, lines up with what we know about the archetype. In potentializing love to an ideal place, the Aquarius Love comes with a bigger heart and bigger mission. As a human sign, Aquarius is not particular about love— who deserves it, who is giving it, why it went away, when it’ll come, how it looks, etc. With the power of scope and objectivity, Aquarius Love transcends physical limitations and instead becomes a universal concept under which all of humankind can shelter. And what could be more loving than the unrelenting acceptance Aquarius offers? And so where things aren’t sensual or material or comfortable enough for Taurus, where things aren’t refined or classic enough for Libra, or magical and hypnotizing enough for Pisces—Aquarius asks no price of admission, for love to them remains priceless, a public good to be doled out and shared not on pretense, but on brotherhood. It is Aquarius’s diligent eye on humankind and fraternity that expands the concept of love: come one, come all, and come as you are.
Saint Valentine of Rome, whose written account has come to serve as an historical template for the inception of Valentine’s Day, acted out these Aquarian ideals. He performed weddings for those forbidden to marry and when sent to jail, healed his jailer’s daughter of blindness. Afterwards and right before he was due to be executed, he sent a letter to the jailer’s daughter, and signed it, your Valentine. Saint Valentine of Rome was also said to give out paper hearts while ministering to people about God’s love (an impersonal Aquarius resonance, equality under an all-seeing eye), and a direct line can be drawn from this action to the Valentine’s Day decorations we see today. In this brief recounting, we meet two Aquarian archetypes, the former more recognizable than the latter: rebellion and compassion. A human thing to do despite the laws of the time, Saint Valentine, though perhaps not an Aquarius himself, extolled all of the best, yet often ignored tenets of the sign—the push towards equality, that all deserve to have their love legitimized and recognized, endless openness to the human condition, and the Love with a capital L that drives one to such measures. Questionable religious ideology aside, Valentine lived and died on one principal: that love, in all its myriad of incarnated forms, in all of its ceremonials, is for all. That the Sun was travailing through Aquarius as the framework for our modern conception of Valentine’s Day was underway can be no coincidence. All of Astrology bears correspondence to human events, even if they remain obscured or misunderstood for a time.
In Ancient Greece, Aquarius season coincided with Gamelion, the month of marriage. Two festivals occurred then, roughly translated to Sacred Wedding and Divine Wedding. These festivals celebrated the union of Zeus and Hera. In Roman texts, Hera was known as Juno, the goddess of marriage. If Juno sounds familiar, it is because an asteroid was named after her and has come to represent what is looked for in marriage and commitment. Modern natal chart calculators can show where Juno is in the sky for an individual, and can points towards the characteristics of a most suitable long-term partner. So what is it about Aquarius that corresponds to this cultivation of lasting love and marriage? Look to the element and modality: fixed air. Like any fixed sign, Aquarius holds on tight and when best expressed can exalt the virtues of fidelity. Of course, any ideal marriage or partnership needs this brand of loyalty and perseverance. Though much is said about the Aquarius need for space, even the Aquarius need for isolation, it cannot be overlooked that when in intimate partnership, Aquarius is one of the more steadfast partners, seeking not for frivolous union, but for deep connection. But the elemental nature of Aquarius sets it apart from the rest of the fixed family. It can be said that inherent to Aquarius symbolism are two life-sustaining elements: air, and water, as Aquarius is the water-bearer, often mistaken by novices as a water sign. Let me poetically pontificate: no living being can do without air or water. And so the Aquarian love is life-sustaining, from which all bounty and blessings grow, from which all beings benefit. It is the grandeur of this concept that gives Aquarius its aloof quality—their Love is so universal and welcoming that to the casual observer, it appears impersonal. But it is precisely the scope of Aquarius Love that makes it so palpable, an equally matched breadth and depth. Where fixed Taurus can become materialistic, fixed Leo can become self-aggrandizing, and fixed Scorpio can brood and become paranoid, no more fixed is Aquarius than the air it represents: ubiquitous, self-sustaining, stretched over distance yet deeply intimate, as oxygen and the connectivity of breath is shared by all. Co-dependency has long reigned as a romantic model of love, clinginess and self-dissolution perversely used as measures of affection. Psychology has now caught up and identified this proclivity as self-sabotaging and maladaptive. The Aquarius model of live and let live in relationship can appear threatening to the osmosis some wish to experience, or expect to experience. But it offers us a great chance at healthy love—as when air is squelched out of the equation, breathing becomes labored, and the life of the relationship is threatened. When inserted in mutually consented amounts, air allows for space, wherein two individuals (or more, *wink*) can fully stretch out into their identity, their lived experience, always feeling supported, but never entrapped. That is what Aquarius can offer—a Love given the air to float, fly, and flex.
In a sense, and as alluded to above, Aquarius love can be cerebral. But all things start first with thought. The belief of a thing creates the experience of a thing. So for Aquarius to hold you in their minds with love and affection is to tap into a potent creative energy, one that serves as the basis for all emotion and action. And because these ideas are fixed, good luck changing the Aquarian mind. Once loved, always loved. For Aquarius, the idea of love for a person, up close or from afar, is to render that love timeless and shapeless, graduated out the physical dimensions of gift-giving, face-time and attention, and into an ethereal experience. Aquarius is associated with personal freedom and independence. Aquarius gives Love the freedom to expand, to individuate, untethered by expectation or precedent.
Aquarius is traditionally ruled by Saturn. There is, then, a resonance with Aquarius and Saturn’s sign of exaltation—Libra. They trine one another, and share a common Saturnian DNA. Libra, in some ways, is the sign of marriage, one-on-one partnership, diplomacy, and fairness. Therefore, there is an invisible but what I find a personally noteworthy through-line and resonance connecting the idea of peaceful partnership to the Aquarius archetype. With this link, Saturn, and by virtue, Aquarius, can delight when relationships become stable and enduring, planting fertile ground for love to blossom perennially, even after the cold and dry winters.
In sum, I invite you to reconsider what you’ve heard about Aquarius. Leave room for the wondrous ways in which this sign offers us love, and hold space for a history that can corroborate it symbolically. Remember that as the water bearer, Aquarius has within it wells of untapped emotional capacity. Only, unlike any other sign, Aquarius shoulders these emotional conditions with impenetrable strength and understanding, turning them into nutrient, tilling human soil, watering it with compassion. In this alchemical process, all human experience, the sordid and splendid, meet their highest resolution in the arms of Aquarius. It is this level of belonging, of feeling seen and heard, that allows unbridled love to flow. It could be that the Aquarius tendency for distance and austerity is merely erected as a means of protection. That the love they feel for others must somehow be contained behind a wall, less it completely overwhelm them, less their waters drown the world. But do not be mistaken—beyond the ideas of coldness and detachment lies a soft, loving center. A sweetness disguised, but always alive.
“Love looks not with the eyes, but with the mind And therefore is winged Cupid painted blind.”
-William Shakespeare
www.camillemichellegray.com
submitted by millymichelle to astrology [link] [comments]

Matched Betting Extra Place Horse Racing - January 21 Profits - £4,707 on top of Full Time Job

Hi all,
I thought I would share my profits for Matched Betting Extra Place Horse Racing for Jan 21. January 2021 has turned into my best month of Matched Betting since I started way back in Summer 2018. This months profits are roughly £4,707. A life changing figure for many and a great figure seeing this is achievable on top of a full time job. Matched Betting is the only decent side hustle I have actually found, compared to doing hundreds of boring online surveys...yuck! (Unless you are a good business person / have 5 lodgers / lots of family money etc.) To see some of my other Matched Betting profits you visit my site: https://cashontheside.co.uk/
I will be investing some of my profits this month in ETF/Shares and putting into house improvements like a new drive way. In addition with Cheltenham horse festival coming up in March, I will be increasing my bank to cover liabilities.
The bulk of my profits came from Extra Place racing, large underlayed winners and BOG (best offer garuntee). Variance was certainly on my side this month and I must have had at least 10 large winners which won upwards of £1600 pounds per bet. As I underlay my bets I made more profit than If I had fully layed of the bets. About 5% of these profits came from low risk casino. After you have completed all welcome offers...in Matched Betting. Ep's become a gold mine...and I truly recommend them to anyone.
Some more of my bets this month illustrating underlayed bets and ep:
https://cashonthesidecouk.files.wordpress.com/2021/02/winnings4.jpg
https://cashonthesidecouk.files.wordpress.com/2021/02/winnings.jpg
https://cashonthesidecouk.files.wordpress.com/2021/02/another-winner.jpg

Images of one of my bets illustrative of Best offer guarantee: https://cashonthesidecouk.files.wordpress.com/2021/01/136707133_10159536662702922_8507610622687908137_o-1.jpg?w=544
For those who are starting out on their Match Betting journey in 2021 these sort of figures are achievable to you once you have experience….unfortunately this will not come overnight! I do put a lot of time into it..between 2-5 hours a day, 7 days a week sometimes. For the average person you could earn at least £500 a month.
To learn more about Match Betting please visit my article Boost Your Income with Matched Betting. Alternatively you can start an Odds Monkey free trial where they will teach you step by step and give you the calculators you need: odds monkey trial https://www.oddsmonkey.com/affiliates/affiliate.php?id=64754(affiliate) or www.oddsmonkey.com. (non affiliate)
To those with a little more experience who want to learn about Matched Betting Extra Places you can visit my guide here Extra Place Match Betting tips here or I have copied and pasted it all below.
For those with Matched Betting Experience - my guide and tips to Extra Places:
What is Extra Place Matched Betting?
Extra Places can be a very lucrative technique to learn. Extra Places are available for us to do pretty much every day, increasing the appeal. Extra Place Offers are available to all customers. This means that even if you get gubbed with a bookmaker, in most cases, you can still make money with them by Matched Betting on their Extra Place Offers.
Extra Places are considered an advanced reload offer, as they not risk-free. However once you have gained some experience on more basic horse racing offers, you can start to take advantage of the lucrative profits available. It may sound complicated but as soon as it ‘clicks’, it becomes simple. Essentially we are taking advantage of the bookies and exchanges paying out if the horse you have backed comes a certain ‘place’ in a race e.g. 4th.
Extra Places combined with additional offers such as BOG (Best Offer Guarantee) can mean additional profits. For example, you back a horse at odds of 15 and then the starting odds move up to 23. If that horse wins you win an extra x8 on your bet. You can see some real life scenarios I found of Extra Place combined with BOG below. Depending on the size of the underlay, profits below would range up to £3,000+

What is a ‘place’ in horse racing?

Quite simply a ‘place’ is the position the horse finishes a race in. For example if a horse wins a race it comes 1st, if a horse comes 2nd its 2nd. In some races with a large number of horses some bookies will pay out if a horse finishes the race in 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th position. Horse Racing festivals such as Cheltenham or Ascot are particularly well known for this.

What is an ‘Extra Place’ in horse racing?

Now we’ve understood what a place is in horse racing you may have probably already guessed what an ‘extra place’ is going to be! An ‘extra place’ is where the bookies add one (or more) additional places to their standard place classification on a particular race. For example they may offer to ‘pay 7 places on a race’ instead of the standard 3 places. The ‘extra place’ in this instance cover 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th.
What are my Extra Place top tips?
  1. Some of my biggest profits have come from big underlayed winners and BOG. I typically underlay most of my bets by about 20% sometimes more. If you are starting out I would underlay on the place only by about 10% to play it safe until you learn more.
  2. Don’t bet on more places than a bookmaker is offering. E.g. If the bookmaker is offering 4 places don’t bet on more than that.
  3. Whilst your learning, take horses on implied odds of at least 12 or more on a match of 80%+.
  4. Look to keep qualifying losses down. E.g. for £100 profit, £5 ql.
  5. Please note, the best odds are typically found between 10 minutes up and to race time. You have to be quick on your ‘toes’…learn to walk before you run etc. Start out on easy horse racing officers before doing extra places.
  6. You will need a bank of at least £1000+ for your exchanges, ideally more. The more you have the more of the field you can cover. You can do EP with several hundred in your exchange but you won’t be able to make bigger profits.
  7. Be consistent, don’t take risks, don’t chase your losses and learn from matched betting extra place forums.
  8. Keep the Odds Monkey up throughout the day...and check for good matches.
  9. Use Bookies Boosts to increase your odds and matches.
  10. Do not give in to your fear of missing out on offers…Tomorrow is another day.
  11. Have at least a dual monitoscreen setup. It is important to be able to see exchange, books and calcs.
How do I find Extra Places offers?
I use the the Odds Monkey Extra Place Matcher to find the best opportunities for profit. The Matcher is explained in the below video.
https://youtu.be/oOKAdiSJidg
I am also a regular visitor of the active Odds Monkey community forums. You can sign up for an Odds Monkey free trial today here today https://www.oddsmonkey.com/affiliates/affiliate.php?id=64754 www.oddsmonkey.com (non affiliate). Odds Monkey provide you with the all guides, calculators etc. I have been a member for over 2.4 years now.
Feel free to get in touch or ask below if any questions.
submitted by After-Asparagus1815 to beermoneyuk [link] [comments]

£500 for a rainy day- A Beginners Guide to Matched Betting

I've been meaning to update this guide for a while and add in some elements about Matched Betting that people should be aware of before getting started. Here they are as follows:
(1) You can start with as little as £20 but ideally and for the sake of attaining more profit in a faster time, My Personal Reccomendation would be to start with £100-£200.
(2) If you are careless, you can make mistakes. Like with any task, you must give it the level of precision it demands, a mistake when entering figures will cost you real money. When you read the guide below you will see that the process is very simple, but that means you must take extra care not to become complacent.
(3) If you have a history with Gambling, do not come near Matched Betting. Matched Betting is not Gambling, but the fact you will be using betting websites to facilitate a profit is too much of a temptation- It's not worth it.
(4) Matched betting won't effect your credit rating, however it's common sense that it doesn't look good to have numerous transations to betting sites on your bank statement. Open a seperate virtual bank account for all your Matched betting activity (It only takes 5 minutes, details below)
With that being said, Matched Betting really is a solid way to secure £400-£500 in a very short time, it's the reason I was able to pay my first couple of month's rent when I moved to the UK and to this day still remains a handy way to pay the bills every month. Anyway, Below is the Guide:

Starting Out:
I was sceptical as hell about Match betting because a friend showed me the Facebook groups and it just looked like a giant gambling pyramid scheme. It turns out there is a decent chunk of change to be made from it, you just need to follow the guides and never ever actually gamble with your money.
Never ever Gamble? Yes That's right, you are going to be using Gambling sites to complete the various offers, but the whole idea behind match betting is that every time you "make a bet", you match that same bet on the exchange. So for example, if I bet £10 for Real Madrid to Win on the Bookie Site at odds of 2.5, I then also make a Matched bet on the Exchange (This is a separate site such as Smarkets or Betfair) where I bet for Real Madrid not to win at odds of 2.5 (or as close as I can get to those odds). In this way I am covered in all outcomes, and it allows me to fulfill the requirements of the bookies offer (For example Bet £10 and get £30 in Free bets)
What's the difference between the Bookie Site and the Exchange? On the Exchange Site you are basically being the Bookie and just like a Bookie, you have liability. If I bet £10 and my bet wins at odds of 2.5 then I win £25, so the bookies liability for this bet is £15, the extra money that they would have to give me if I win. There are calculators on the Match betting sites which you can use to calculate what Liability you need to enter on the exchange each time you make your matched bet. There is also software to help you find what games have the closest odds on both the bookies and the exchange, which is very important.
What do I do when I get my free bets? It's the same process again, You find a game that has very close odds on both the bookies and the exchange (You can do this by eye or by using odds matching software. A good site with this software is called OddsMonkey). Only this time when you use the calculator to work out your liability, you will set it to "Free bets SNR" so it knows you are not using real money. It will tell you how much Liability to use in the exchange and off you go.
How does this make me money? The fact that you have a free bet to use is what makes you money, For example a £30 free bet at odds of 5.5 in the bookies will win you £135 (30x 4.5, because the original free bet stake of £30 is not returned to you). Now let's say that the closest odds I can find in the Exchange for the same game are 6.0, I will need a liability of £112.50 to match my free bet in the bookies ( I use the calculator on oddsmonkey to work this out)
£135- 112.50 = £22.50 in Profit.
Alternatively if my bet on the exchange wins, I will lose the free bet of £30 (but it's not actually a loss to me because It's not real money) and I will win £22.50 on the exchange. Either way, I make a Profit of £22.50
What about providing card details? You can use a separate, virtual bank account for all your match betting, In this way your main banking information is not shared with any of the sites you sign up to and all of your match betting transactions never go near your main bank account. A good one to use is Revolut or Monzo, both apps are super easy to use and it only takes 5 minutes to open an account. It's also totally free to open.
Revolut: Referral (£15 referral scheme) Non Ref
Monzo non ref: https://monzo.com

Where can I learn to do it? There are some sites that you have to pay a monthly subscription to but I found one called Team Profit that is free and has a full guide of all the different offers you can complete.
I worked my way down through the list of offers, nice and handy, and having completed 20 offers at 15 minutes per offer, I came out at £470 for 5 hours total of work.
If you are new to this site and are opening a free account I would really appreciate if you use my Referral (£10)
Here is the non referral link to the page with all the offers: https://www.teamprofit.com/welcome-offers-list
TLDR: You do not need to "gamble" to match bet, in fact by definition, the bet you make is "matched" on the exchange, so it is not a gamble in any sense.
I hope this guide helps and hopefully might even get a few people out of a fix this month with bills, rent etc.
Thanks for Reading.
submitted by IvyRoney to beermoneyuk [link] [comments]

A SIR_JACK_A_LOT Christmas Carol - My magnum dong opus on turning $35K to $1.75M (50X) in less than a year

A SIR_JACK_A_LOT Christmas Carol - My magnum dong opus on turning $35K to $1.75M (50X) in less than a year
How I went from $35K to $1.75M (50X) in less than a year

Introduction

Gather 'round retards and autists. Grab a mug of eggnog, find a cozy corner in your mom's basement, and enjoy the tale of SIR JACK A LOT.
In this post: I'll go over my trading history, my strategy, my philosophy, and also systematically destroy every accusation and idiotic question made against me in the last week WITH RECEIPTS. No one doubts motherfuckin SIR JACK A LOT.
Disclaimers
Privacy is important to me. I wish to stay anonymous. This is not financial advice, just my story.

Ghosts of Christmas Past

Chapter 1: Crypto (2017-18)
How it all started... I threw every last dollar I had in ETH at $12 and swing traded a ton of shit coins and ICOs until it all came crashing down.
In short: turned $8K into $300K and back to $30k but owed the IRS ~$120K since all the gains were calculated at 2017-year-end. I royally fucked myself because I didn't set any money aside for taxes. Ended up in debt to some very bad people and things were very dark, I don't like to talk about this time in my life that much.
Chapter 2: WSB Tuition (2018)
First learned about WSB in 2018 from the infamous FB ER put play by YungBillionaire turning ~$28K into $451K overnight. That sounded fun.
Quickly learned about options but most importantly about FDs, tendies, and the power of memes.
Back then it was all about trade wars and hanging at the whim of commander cheeto's supple tweets.
I have fond memories of:
  • Apparently the first stock I ever bought on Robinhood was HMNY... thanks Robinhood Recap for the reminder of my retarded-ness
  • Grew my first set of winkles on my smooth brain with AMC calls. The thesis was that their Stubs A-List subscription was doing pretty well according to /AMCsAList back then
  • Went all-in MTCH weekly puts with $12K clenching my stomach in the fetal position when all of a sudden there was a lawsuit and I tripled my account in minutes, pure luck
Still ended up losing $30K and swore off options forever... until 2020 where I lost another $10k in options. Fucking weeklies man, they're like if cocaine and blackjack made a dopamine-infused baby
WTF is up with the snowflakes Robinhood? So gay, instant short when it IPOs

Ghosts of Christmas Present

Chapter 3: Road to $1M+ (2020)
Let's start with the receipts since that's what everyone's interested in:
Proof that I started Feb 2020 with only $35K
Vanguard is my 401k provider and their self-directed brokerage is provided by TD Ameritrade which is why you see screenshots from two different apps. Started the year with $11K in 401k, deposited $26K more in Jan and then started trading in Feb with $35K. The $49K withdrawal in June was for a 401k loan to buy a Tesla.
Looking at this all-time graph gets me so hard
In my first run up to June, turned $35k into $850K (APT, CODX, NCLH, CHWY) and decided my luck was too good and needed to "cool down". Decided to withdraw $50k for a Tesla and stayed away from the markets for a good 3 months thinking the market was going to go back down again...
But it didn't, the market kept rallying and I got the tendie tingles. My first move in Sept was to go all-in on WORK and bought at the high of $35 and was immediately down -30% thanks to their shit ER. They recovered a bit in the weeks afterwards and then jumped into CRSR which made me a millionaire and then GME. GME also shit the bed with a -20% ER but recovered swiftly thanks to Lord Cohen and recently jumped into STIC for that final spike up.
Chapter 4: Explaining every trade
Proof of every gain/loss I've ever traded (except APT history which was in Vanguard)
My strategy is going all-in on a single stock all-shares. The idea is to have a thesis and conviction with that trade. I stay in the trade until the thesis is invalidated or another opportunity arises, it's a simple strategy and it's worked for me so far. My account does not allow options or margin trading.
Here's a few theses and history I remember in hopes folks can learn something:
  • APT/CODX - It was obvious to me in Jan/Feb that this coronavirus was the real deal. The trick was to look at the facts and not the noise. There was a fake viral video of blood-curdling screams from Wuhan apartments that was so obviously fake but western media loved it. On the other hand, Wuhan built a makeshift hospital in just 10 days, that's real action the government took and showed me how seriously dangerous this new virus was going to be. So I loaded up on APT, a mask stock, and rode it up and then switched to CODX, a testing stock, and rode that up from $11 to $24 selling right before their botched ER (conf call with no queue and everyone talking over each other lol)
  • NCLH - Saw a curious spike in volume on May 14 with a move upward, piqued my tendie tingles again. Decided it was worth an all-in at $10.57 as the support of $10 was pretty strong. The mood at the time was that coronavirus was waning (I knew it was wrong but the market was emotionally optimistic) and fortunately it caused NCLH to moon and I sold at $19.75 on June 4 even though it kept mooning to $26 over the next 2 days
  • CHWY - Got a dog, it's cute. Pets + E-Commerce during a pandemic, easy money. Bought at $41 and sold at $46 only because I thought it was moving kind of slowly. Well I was pretty wrong, now it's at $104
  • SQQQ/TVIX - I tried being a gay bear for an hour and lost money. Don't ever be a gay bear
  • CRSR - Been watching a ton of tech review and PC building YouTube channels and subreddits and the "enthusiast" crowd is definitely larger and has bigger wallets than people think. There is fucking keyboard typing ASMR now and ebay reviewers THANKING scalpers for charging them 2-3x MRSP. Biggest generational jump in GPU and CPU in a while and recently IPO-ed Corsair was definitely gonna benefit from this new generation of gamers was my thesis. Went all-in at $24 and sold at $36 after a non-stop run even though it kept running all the way to $51. No regrets, profit is profit.
  • WORK - It was the only "WFH" stock that didn't moon yet, thought it deserved a chance was my thesis. Went all-in at the tippy top of $35 on Sept 2 and it immediately kept crashing all the way to $24 in 5 days. Fortunately it recovered a bit and sold at $32 for a loss since I gave up hope and it seemed to be running out of steam
Chapter 5: GME Gang Confession
Now: I have a confession to make. My conviction for the Gamestop MOASS is insane. Had 88,233 shares at $13.04 buy-in with a $120 stop limit. Listening to this 90-min podcast of Uberkikz11 going on about how he knows more about this company than any mortal human should gets me so friken hard every time.
But. That -20% ER drop hurt me on a spiritual level. Watching my account go from $1.5M to $1.1M at one point gave me Taco Bell-levels of stomach cramps.
So when it bounced back to $15-16 on no news on Fri, Dec 18, I felt like I needed to "cool down" again. It was going into the holidays with a British virus mutation on the way and hedge funds manipulating to get their holiday bonuses, it felt kind of dangerous. And no way Ryan Cohen would be working with his lawyers on something that fast over the holidays, right?
So I sold all my GME at $15.50.
Then on Mon, Dec 21 morning, Lord Cohen drops his new 13D/A... but the stock price stayed flat all day. The Lord gave me a chance. A whole day to get back in. Unfortunately I didn't take it.
And then Tue, Dec 22 all tendies broke loose, the squeezening. +25% gain. deepfuckingvalue dropping his massive dong in another update. I waddled back and forth in my fetal position. Missed out on ~$300K gain while watching everyone freak out. Felt exactly like this:
Can't feel my dick at all...
Chapter 6: Barking on a STIC
While waddling and scrolling on my phone, I happened to stumble across this post about STIC and BarkBox. Not sure why pound_salt_ deleted the original post but at the time, it was the only post about it on WSB
I was pretty familiar with BarkBox and started researching, it seemed super un-discovered. I liked what I saw: Pets. E-commerce. Subscription. SPAC. Basic white bitches spoiling dogs. This might be worth an all-in.
So on Wed, Dec 23 morning I decided to make a move. All-in at $14.42.
Then I started writing everything I had learned and posted it all in my DD post at 1:46PM ET because I thought it was worth sharing what I found https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kiypqq/sir_jack_a_lots_next_move_all_in_stic_bark_merge
The price was $14.25 at the time of posting and frankly, price was oddly flat at $14.25 pretty much all day. Lots of people got to buy in at this price. Why did it take me so long to write it? I had actual work meetings all morning and wrote it during my lunch break
Then by the luck of the gods, apparently the CEO of BarkBox, Matt Meeker, went onto CNBC at 3:20PM ET and it started mooning. On Thurs, Dec 24 I awoke to a 20% pop and shared my gains for ya'll to salivate over. Complete. Luck.

Ghost of Christmas Future

Chapter 7: What's next?
Let me be clear. I stand by every word of conviction I mentioned in all my GME and STIC posts, those are still my favorite H1 2021 plays. Holding STIC until merger would most definitely get you some massive gains.
But I'm a swing momentum trader. If I feel like something is running out of steam, has a risk of a rug pull, or another stock has potential to pick up steam with lesser downside, that's when I usually jump around.
I'm not happy with just a +25% in 3 months. I want a +25% compounded on +25% compounded on another +25% in the same 3 month time period.
On Monday, Dec 28 I will probably sell STIC and move all into CRSR again. From technical charting perspective, I'm loving the setup and the magical crayons are telling me we're at the support again and this should bounce in anticipation of strong Q4 earnings.
Now: this is not a ding on STIC or GME, I stand by my 2x-10x claims at some point in H1 2021. It will eventually get there but it might also dip and rise again and I want to swing that dip and rise.
Let me spell it out for some retards: because STIC moon-ed so fast, I want to sell to capture profits and hopefully buy back in on a dip. If STIC had not mooned yet, I would still be holding STIC for a more gradual moon-ing to let my thesis play out. If STIC does not dip but keeps mooning, then I will not chase and happily watch other diamond hands enjoy their tendies.

Q&A / AMAA

I'm fucking tired of answering the same repeated idiotic questions. Let this Q&A serve as an artifact and please link it to new retards. I will also proceed to debunk every single fucking false claim I've read in my last few posts. Also feel free to AMAA in the comments, I'll be replying all day.
  1. How often do you jack off? At least 2 times a day and always before I make a trade for that post-nut clarity
  2. Haha you're going to owe so much in taxes - Nope, this is all in my 401k which in the US means I don't owe taxes until I withdraw. Fucking compounding gains for years bitch
  3. Why are you making such risky trades? My goal is 8 digits or bust, that's my /fatfire number so I can finally quit this wageslave game. It's so obviously stacked against us and requires a lottery moment to reach escape velocity to play on New Game+ where I can live on $400k 4% SWR on $10M. This is my lottery moment and I'm leaning all the fucking way in. That's why I'm chad-ing it up and trying to TIME the market, meaning riding shit up and then jumping back into shit for another ride up. Fuck you Warren Buffet and your 90 y/o "time in the market" boomer bullshit. The next pandemic in 2025 might wipe us all out anyways, I ain't got time to wait for retirement. Gotta will it into existence. YOLO
  4. How are you so good at this? I study everything. Technicals. Charts. Support levels. Volume spikes. Short interest. Executive teams. Rumors. Customer sentiment. Employee morale. Insider trading. MSM manipulation. Comparable market caps. ER reports. Upgrade reports. SEC filings. Meme potential. I literally watch and study every facet I can about a company, and do so quickly.
  5. What's your trading strategy? All-in on a single stock all-shares. The idea is to have a thesis and conviction with that trade. I stay in the trade until the thesis is invalidated or another opportunity arises, it's a simple strategy and it's worked for me so far.
  6. Why do you post on WSB? Internet points is fucking fun. I was banned for like 30 minutes yesterday (on "accident" apparently) and having $200k+ gains without the ability to share was just not the same
  7. How do I follow your next move? Oh just follow my discord/newslett -- no fuck that shit. I don't do discord or newsletters or twitter or anything else. I'll keep posting on WSB until 8 digits or bust (or ban), you can guarantee that.
  8. Why do you remove the time on your screenshots? I'm cropping shit on my iPhone and my username is between the portfolio number and the top bar. Otherwise I'd love to friken show off my perpetual 69% battery level
  9. 15% isn't a real YOLO - I am literally shoving my entire net worth into a single stock every single time. Correct it's not the same as blackjack or FDs where if I got it wrong, I could lose everything but it's still fucking riskier than any ETF or financial advisor with their cuckold MBA would ever advise. One 15% play may not be impressive but compounded together is how you get this 50X in less than a year
  10. Where's PLTR or TSLA? Notice I never once touched PLTR, TSLA, NIO, XBEV, MVIS, etc or any of the other meme stocks WSB loves. That's because I hate being a sheep and following after the curve. I try to find shit right before the curve starts (usually indicated by a volume spike) and most WSB meme stocks are up way too high for my risk tolerance. Too much at stake to lose to a random rug pull moment.
  11. Hey I think I'm your cousin, can I get some money? No you fuck, stop being poor.
  12. Hey do you wanna fuck my ex-wife? Already did, next
  13. You're just using WSB to pump and dump on us - No you fucking idiot.
  • First: look at my post history, I NEVER make a hard recommendation for people to buy a stock. I only share my gains, losses, or DD because it's fucking funny to see how ya'll react. Whether people want to follow my move or not is 100% up to people. Do your own fucking DD and figure out when you want to sell according to your own thesis/risk tolerance.
  • Second: You folks keep asking me for my next move. Well how and when the fuck should I share it? If I post something in the morning, it's stuck in /new for a while until it gets enough upvotes to hit the front page and by then it's already afternoon or market close and the stock might have already done who knows what. That's not pump and dumping, that's just a delayed effect of how Reddit's algorithm works. Anything on the front page is essentially 5-15 hours old news and you need to determine if the state of the world is still the same or be a sheep and chase. It's the same thing once you hear Aunt Cathie or Boomer Cramer mention a stock and it trickles down to you, you're chasing after others have already gotten in
  • Third: My $1.5M is not enough to move any real-volume stock. I don't touch OTC or low-volume shit. For STIC: I have 97K shares and on average 2-4M shares are traded every day for STIC so my account is a like a drop of whale cum in the ocean
  • Fourth: Real pump and dumpers are the shitty scum on the earth. Spend any time in /pennystocks or some Discord or Stocktwits and holy shit, these scum run fucking operations. I've even seen paid newsletters where the highest tier gets the tip "early" to buy in and then the lowefree tiers get the tip which causes the pump for the early buyers to literally dump on and create bag holders on non-existant volume too
  • Fifth: Listen to what DoubleKillGG and his big brain figured out the rest of you retards could not:
The fact is that SIR_JACK_A_LOT is a swing trader. Yes he pumps his stocks and closes relatively quickly but he doesn't pump shit stocks. If you bought any of his positions when he posted you'd be up on everything. A pump and dump requires the dump part where investors are left holding a stock that is worth less than when they bought it. He did, however, break wsb's rule #4; STIC's market cap is below $1B.
His positions closed and what they're worth currently
NCLH: Exit at 17.95. Current share price is 24.51
CHWY: Exit at 44.35. Current share price is 104.10
NCLH (again): Exit at 19.16. Current share price is 24.51
CRSR: Exit at 35.57. Current share price is 36.70
PTON: Exit at 109.46. Current share price is 163.60
GME: Exit at 15.96. Current share price is 20.26
*\*Exits are estimations from his posts*
STIC: Posted DD when share price was around 14.25. Current share price is 17.85
Shout-outs
Some of ya'll are real gems. Major props to:
Fuck You Haters
Last week we got durado so cucked he deleted his account and now kingobama123 is all up on my ass. First, read this magnum dong opus and if you have more questions, ask it in the comments, I'll cum all over you.
POLL
To really drive home the value I bring to WSB, let's see how many peoples' lives I've changed and for the better or worse. Take this poll regarding whether I helped make you gain or lose money if you've been following.
https://www.strawpoll.me/42341589
🚀🎄🚀🎄🚀🎄🚀🎄🚀🎄🚀🎄🚀🎄🚀🎄
🎄🚀🎄🚀Merry Fucking Christmas 🚀🎄🚀
🚀🎄Jerome Powell bless us, every one!🚀🎄
🎄🚀🎄🚀🎄🚀🎄🚀🎄🚀🎄🚀🎄🚀🎄🚀
My usual order is the 13-piece tenders - whopping 1780 calories in a single sitting
submitted by SIR_JACK_A_LOT to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Is Tanking Worth It? A Study on The Correlation Between Lottery Picks and the NBA Finals Over the Past Two Decades

Hello fellow basketball fans and those of you who claim to be basketball fans. I have decided to do a project with the intent of finding empirical evidence to determine the degree in which tanking (attaining lottery picks) leads to success (reaching the NBA finals). If this seems extremely extra and motivated, that’s because it is. I am sick and tired of seeing spoiled/know-it-all fans of well-run organizations (this is pointed) whine about how they’d rather lose to get a high draft pick as opposed to win and attempt to maintain a culture of competence and consistency. Because I am petty I have put together this project and I will let the data do the talking because I am not even sure I can directly quantify what it is exactly what I am measuring, however, I will put a conclusion at the end to summarize my findings and create some sort of logical roadmap to the best of my abilities.
Before we get going I need to mention that I originally intended to measure the past 20 finals but I ended up doing the past 21 because I forgot that ‘00’ counts as a year when I started this and I only realized that was the case when I was working on the ‘Nerd Section’ so it is what it is.
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For this section of the project I have done the following research:
_
L5Y = Was the team in the lottery 5 or fewer years prior to their finals appearance?
Bolded name = Indicates this player was drafted in the lottery by the finals team that their name is listed with
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Part 1: NBA Finals Match-ups Over the Past 21 Years
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2000: Lakers v. Pacers = Lakers W (4-2)
Lakers Lottery Picks: Shaq (1st by the Magic in 1992), Kobe (13th by Charlotte in 1996), Glen Rice (4th by Miami in 1989), and Ron Harper (8th by Cleveland in 1986)
Pacers Lottery Picks: Reggie Miller (11th in 1987 by Pacers), Jalen Rose (13th in 1994 by Denver), Dale Davis (13th 1991 by Pacers), and Rik Smits (2nd overall in 1988 by Pacers)
Lakers L5Y = Yes* (traded up to get Kobe at 13 in the 1996 draft but their record in ‘95 was 53-29)
Pacers L5Y = Yes (‘96 & ‘97 but only their 12th overall pick in ‘97 - Austin Croshere - came off then bench and played in these finals)
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2001: Lakers v. 76ers = Lakers W (4-1)
Lakers Lottery Picks: Shaq, Kobe, Horace Grant (10th by the Bulls in 1987), and I feel like I have to say Robert Horry (11th by Houston in 1992) because he played about as many minutes off the bench as Grant did starting
76ers Lottery Picks: Allen Iverson (1st in 1996 by 76ers), Dikembe Mutumbo (4th by Denver in 1991), and Tyrone Hill (11th in 1990 by Golden State)
Lakers L5Y = Yes* (see last finals)
76ers L5Y = Yes (‘96 they got Iverson 1st overall / however their ‘97 and ‘98 draft picks - Keith Van Horne - who they traded for Tim Thomas that same draft - and Larry Hughes were not on the roster for these finals)
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2002: Lakers v. Nets = Lakers W (4-0)
Lakers Lottery Picks: Shaq, Kobe, Horry
Nets Lottery Picks: Jason Kidd (2nd by Dallas in 1994), Kenyon Martin (1st by Nets in 2000), Keith Van Horne (2nd by 76ers in 1997 - traded to NJ immediately), and Kerry Kittles (8th by the Nets in 1996)
Lakers L5Y = No
Nets L5Y = Yes (‘97 they swapped their pick for Van Horne as part of a trade / ‘00 they drafted Kenyon Martin / ‘01 they drafted Eddie Griffin but he wasn’t on the roster for these finals - he was a part of a deal to get Richard Jefferson in that draft but Jefferson was very young at this point and came off the bench in the finals)
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2003: Spurs v. Nets = Spurs W (4-2)
Spurs Lottery Picks: Tim Duncan (1st by San Antonio in 1997) and David Robinson (1st overall by San Antonio in 1987)
Nets Lottery Picks: Jason Kidd, Kenyon Martin, Kerry Kittles, and Richard Jefferson (13th by Houston - immediately traded to the Nets and aforementioned Eddie Griffin was a part of that package - in 2001)
Spurs L5Y = No
Nets L5Y = Yes (see details on their lottery picks in ‘00 and ‘01 above)
__
2004: Lakers v. Pistons = Pistons W (4-1)
Pistons Lottery Picks: Rip Hamilton (7th by Washington in 1999), Chauncey Billups (3rd by Boston in 1997), and Rasheed Wallace (4th by Washington in 1995)
Lakers Lottery Picks: Shaq, Kobe, Karl ‘Allegations’ Malone (13th in 1985 by Utah), and Gary Payton (2nd in 1990 by the Supersonics)
Pistons L5Y = Yes (‘00 they selected Mateen Cleaves 14th / ‘01 they selected Rodney White / in ‘03 they selected Darko / worth noting that Darko barely touched the court in these finals and the other two were not on the roster)
Lakers L5Y = No
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2005: Spurs v. Pistons = Spurs W (4-3)
Spurs Lottery Picks: Tim Duncan and another ‘Horry plays as much as a starter but he comes off the bench’ series
Pistons Lottery Picks: Billups, Hamilton, and Wallace
Spurs L5Y = No
Pistons L5Y = Yes (see details in previous finals matchup)
__
2006: Mavericks v. Heat = Heat W (4-2)
Mavs Lottery Picks: Dirk (9th by Milwaukee in 1998 - traded immediately to Dallas), Jason Terry (10th by Atlanta in 1999), Jerry Stackhouse (3rd by the 76ers in 1995)*, and Erick Dampier (10th by the Pacers in 1996)*
Heat Lottery Picks: Dwayne Wade (5th by Miami in ‘03), Antoine Walker (6th by Boston in 1996), Shaq, and Jason Williams (7th by the Kings in 1998)
Mavs L5Y = No
Heat L5Y = Yes (‘02 they selected Caron Butler who wasn’t even on the finals roster / ‘03 they drafted Flash 5th overall and I need not qualify his impact in a mere sentence)
*Both Jerry and Erick played way more than another lottery pick by the name of Desagana Diop so I felt they were both far more qualified for the list than ‘Double D’
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2007: Spurs v. Cavs = Spurs W (4-0)
Spurs Lottery Picks: Tim Duncan and the inevitable Robert Horry (not as many minutes as previous finals but still a good chunk)
Cavs Lottery Picks: LeBron (1st by Cleveland in ‘03), Drew Gooden (4th by Memphis in 2002), and Larry Hughes (8th by 76ers in 1998)
Spurs L5Y = No
Cavs L5Y = Yes (‘02 they drafted Dajuan Wagner 6th and he wasn’t on this finals roster / ‘03 LeBron / ‘04 Luke Jackson at 10th - also not on this finals roster)
__
2008: Lakers v. Celtics = Celtics W (4-2)
Lakers Lottery Picks: Kobe, Pau Gasol (3rd by Atlanta - immediately traded to Memphis - in 2001), Lamar Odom (4th by the Clippers in 1999), and Vladimir Radmanović (12th by the Supersonics in 2001)
Celtics Lottery Picks: Ray Allen (drafted 5th by Milwaukee in 1996), KG (drafted 5th by the T-wolves in 1995), and Paul Pierce (drafted 10th by the Celtics in 1998)
Lakers L5Y = Yes (2005 they drafted Andrew Bynum 10th overall but he was not on this finals roster)
Celtics L5Y = Yes (2004 they drafted Al Jefferson and in ‘06 they drafted Randy Foye - neither were on this finals roster / took they legendary Jeff Green in 2005 and he also wasn’t on the team)
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2009: Magic v. Lakers = Laker W (4-1)
Magic Lottery Picks: Dwight Howard (1st overall in 2004 by the Magic) and Mickaël Piétrus (11th by Golden State in ‘03)
Lakers Lottery Picks: Kobe, Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, and **Andrew Bynum (**was on this roster but he was a bench guy)
Magic L5Y = Yes (Howard in 2004 / they took Fran Vázquez 11th in 2005 - never played in the NBA - and JJ Reddick 11th in 2006 - JJ was a bench lad)
Lakers L5Y = Yes (see details in previously listed finals above)
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2010: Lakers v. Celtics = Lakers W (4-3)
Lakers Lottery Picks: Kobe, Paul Gasol, Andrew Bynum, and Lamar Odom (not as big of a contributor as he was last time)
Celtics Lottery Picks: Paul Pierce, KG, and Ray Allen
Lakers L5Y = Yes (Andrew Bynum)
Celtics L5Y = Yes (see details listed in 2008 matchup)
__
2011: Mavs v. Heat = Mavs W (4-2)
Mavs Lottery Picks: Dirk, Jason Kidd, Shawn Marion (9th by Phoenix in 1999), Tyson Chandler (2nd by the Clippers - traded to the Bulls immediately - in 2001), and Jason Terry (played considerable minutes off the bench)
Heat Lottery Picks: LeBron, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh (4th by the Raptors in 2003), and a dash of Mike Bibby (2nd by Vancouver in 1998)
Mavs L5Y = No
Heat L5Y = Yes (2008 they took Michael Beasley 2nd overall but he was not on this finals roster)
__
2012: Thunder v. Heat = Heat W (4-1)
Thunder Lottery Picks: KD (2nd by the Supersonics in 2007), Russ (4th in 2008 by the Thunder), Thabo Sefolosha (13th by the 76ers in 2006), and a few appearances off the bench some guy named James Harden (3rd by the Thunder in 2009)
Heat Lottery Picks: LeBron, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, and Shane Battier (6th by Memphis in 2001)
Thunder L5Y = Yes (in the three drafts from 2007-2009 they drafted KD 2nd, Russ 4th, and Harden 3rd in respective years)
Heat L5Y = Yes (see details in previously listed finals above)
__
2013: Spurs v. Heat = Heat W (4-3)
Spurs Lottery Picks: Tim Duncan
Heat Lottery Picks: LeBron, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, and Ray Allen (came off the bench but arguably may have hit an important shot or two)
Spurs L5Y = No
Heat L5Y = Yes (see details listed in previous finals above)
__
2014: Spurs v. Heat = Spurs W (4-1)
Spurs Lottery Picks: Tim Duncan
Heat Lottery Picks: LeBron, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, and Ray Allen
Spurs L5Y: No
Heat L5Y: No
__
2015: Warriors v. Cavs = Warriors W (4-2)
Warriors Lottery Picks: Wardell Curry II (7th by Golden State in 2009), Harrison Barnes (7th by Golden State in 2012), Klay (11th by Golden State in 2011), Andrew Bogut (1st by Milwaukee in 2005), and considerable minutes from Igoudala (9th by 76ers in 2004)
Cavs Lottery Picks: LeBron\, *Tristan Thompson** (4th in 2011 by the Cavs), Kyrie (1st by the Cavs in 2011 - went out in game 1)
Warriors L5Y = Yes (2010 they took Ekpe Odoh - wasn’t on this finals roster / 2011 they got Klay 11th and in 2012 they got Harrison Barnes 7th)
Cavs L5Y = Yes (2001 they drafted Kyrie 1st and Thompson 4th / 2012 they drafted Dion Waiters - wasn’t on this finals roster / 2013 they took Anthony Bennet 1st overall - need I say more / 2014 they drafted Andrew Wiggins 1st overall and he was shipped off with Bennet when the Cavs decided to rob Minnesota blind)
*****came back as a free agent
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2016: Warriors v. Cavs = Cavs W (4-3)
Warriors Lottery Picks: Steph, Klay, Harrison Barnes, Iggy, and less of a role for Andrew Bogut
Cavs Lottery Picks: LeBron\, *Kyrie, **Tristan Thompson, and Kevin Love (5th by Memphis in 2008 - immediately traded to the T-wolves)
Warriors L5Y = Yes (see details in previously listed finals above)
Cavs L5Y = Yes (see details in previously listed finals above)
*****came back as a free agent
__
2017: Warriors v. Cavs = Warriors W (4-1)
Warriors Lottery Picks: KD, Steph, Klay, and Iggy
Cavs Lottery Picks: LeBron\, *Kyrie, **Tristan Thompson, Kevin Love, and an elderly Richard Jefferson
Warriors L5Y = Yes (see details in previously listed finals above)
Cavs L5Y = Yes (see details in previously listed finals above)
*****came back as a free agent
__
2018: Warriors v. Cavs = Warriors W (4-0)
Warriors Lottery Picks: Steph, Klay, and KD
Cavs Lottery Picks: LeBron\, *Tristan Thompson**, Kevin Love, and noticeable minutes from Jeff Green
Warriors L5Y = No
Cavs L5Y = Yes (see details in previously listed finals above)
*****came back as a free agent
__
2019: Warriors v. Raptors = Raptors W (4-2)
Warriors Lottery Picks: Steph, Klay (went out in game 5), and Iggy
Raptors Lottery Picks:
Warriors L5Y = No
Raptors L5Y = Yes (2016 they took Jakob Poeltl 9th - later traded as part of a package with the beloved Demar Derozan for Mr. Leonard)
__
2020: Lakers v. Heat = Lakers W (4-2)
Lakers Lottery Picks: LeBron James, Anthony Davis (1st by New Orleans in 2012), Kentavious Caldewell-Pope (8th by the Pistons in 2013), along with minutes sprinkled from former lottery picks Dwight Howard and Markieff Morris (13th by Phoenix in 2011)
Heat Lottery Picks: Bam Adebayo (14th overall in 2017) and Tyler Herro (13th overall in 2019)
Lakers L5Y = Yes (2015 they took D’Angelo Russel 2nd overall - wasn’t on this finals roster / 2016 they took Brandon Ingram 2nd overall, 2017 they took Lonzo Ball 2nd overall, and in 2019 they ‘drafted’ De’Andre Hunter 4th overall- they were all a part of a trade package to acquire Anothony Davis)
Heat L5Y = Yes (In 2015 they took Justise Winslow 10th overall - he wasn’t on this finals roster / Bam 14th in 2017 and Herro 13th in 2019)
__
TLDR Tidbits:











*has played in one or more finals for a team different from the one that drafted them
___
Nerd Section:
Getting ‘The Guy’:
Equation > 25 x 15 = 375 / 29 ÷ 375 = 0.077 / 0.077 x 100 = roughly 8%



*may not have been explained clearly enough but the number 7 represents the total number of teams that had their lottery pick(s) win at least one or more championships with them - there were 13 different players selected with 13 different lottery picks but those 13 picks were spread across just 7 different teams

The Indisputable Value of ‘The Guy’

___
Conclusion:
Look, do I think this data tells the full story? HEAVENS NO. But does it tell A story? Yes it does. At the end of the day, sports are hard. Building a winner is hard. Building a SUSTAINED winner is even harder. I believe this project has shown just how truly difficult it is to win the NBA draft lottery and end up with a player capable of helping your team make their way to the promised land. Having a lottery pick pan out the way they’re projected to is far from a guarantee and the odds that your team is going to land that player in the ~3.5% is obviously incredibly low. With that being said, I get it. I understand those of you that think losing is better than winning in certain instances because you feel as if it gives your team a chance at landing one of these guys but I hope now you can at least see how really truly ridiculously fortunate you have to be to end up with one of these dudes. The fact that a combination of 10 different teams with a combined 170 picks over the past 25 years managed to win 1/3 of the championships that 3 teams who had almost as many championships as they had lottery picks over the exact same span of time should say something to you.
Are the Lakers, Spurs, and Heat lucky? Yes, you need to be lucky to be good. However, the Lakers traded for Kobe at the back end of the lottery, the Spurs only needed one lottery pick total over the past 25 seasons to be successful, and Miami… ok Miami was fortunate to land LeBron and Bosh in the same offseason (to be fair they did win one with Wade prior to this) but the reason they were able to sign LeBron and Bosh should not be understated. All three of these teams have proven to maintain at least three things for an extended period of time; solid coaching, solid front office, and a competitive (winning) environment. So at this point in time, if your team is operating on all three of these levels with an average to above average level of competence you should appreciate it and understand that the chips will eventually fall in your favor if they continue to do so. I don’t have time to talk about ‘treadmill teams’ but I can assure you in virtually every single case they are not operating effectively on at least one of the levels I described.
As I conclude my research on this topic I’d like to summarize this it in one message that a good chunk of you likely grasped well before ever seeing this project. When it comes to the lottery, the success rates of teams spanning over the past quarter century clearly show that your team probably won’t win the big money just because they have a ticket in their hand… but boy can it be fun when that thang cashes out. So with all that being said - Raptors fans and those in similar situations - if you take a look around, I think you’ll be able to see that we’re going to be alright.
Thank you for reading.
_____
Source: https://www.basketball-reference.com
Corrections:
I have been rightly corrected and now know the lottery is only the first 14 teams and not the first 15 / with that being said I know that doesn't make a huge difference in a data set this large because I'd be removing only ~6% of the total picks made over the past 25 years (based off of my original criteria for what a 'lottery team' was) and that doesn't change the main message of this project
I also had to remove Mr. Leonard’s name where it was previously listed in certain instances due to the correction (twice with the Spurs and once with the Raptors)
Jason Kidd stans I have repented and corrected thank you for noticing
submitted by neomyhal to nba [link] [comments]

How To Value A Stock (From Someone Who Has Beaten The S&P Almost Every Year Since 2008)

I recently wrote this up for my friends who asked me how I do what I do. I figured I'd share it here. This is freely available to anyone who wants it, though please credit me if you simply copy/paste. Nothing here is novel, and can be done by anyone. I am not a financial professional, and the example given below is only Abbvie because I forgot that Abbott Labs was alphabetically the first in the S&P 500 when picking an example.

First, let’s come right out and say that if you do not have the time to do this, or do not find it enjoyable, just buy low-cost index funds that track either the total market or the S&P 500.
Second, let’s make an important distinction:
Investing – This is the act of purchasing assets for less than their intrinsic value. This PDF will focus on how to determine the intrinsic value of an asset that produces income. Note that for most assets, this is simply how much money you can extract from the asset over the period of time that you hold it for. There’s no other value than money in investing. Causes and emotions are what philanthropy is for.
Speculating – This is, at its core, the act of taking supply of an asset from the present to the future (by hoarding it). If there is more demand, lower supply, or both, this pays the speculator to take the asset from a period of low value to one of high value. It is not gambling, but is very difficult to do, since it entails taking on timing risk. It is not illegal, immoral, or impossible, but I have no special insight into it. I’ll leave it there.
Gambling – This looks a lot like speculation, but without any particular reason to believe the asset will be more valuable in the future. Speculators at least estimate the value of an asset to investors, as they are ultimately the end market for an asset. Do not gamble. Full stop.
Determining the intrinsic value of an asset
The value of an asset is simply the present value of all future income that asset can provide you. Since a dollar in five years is naturally less valuable than a dollar today, you have to discount future income against the opportunity cost of forgoing the dollars you invest today. When we get to the Present Value equation, this is represented by interest. It can also be thought of as the opportunity cost of investing in the asset instead of some other asset or simply consuming the dollars instead.
Here’s the actual math. Note that it’s not super hard, and while I will explain it, there are dozens of free websites that will quickly let you calculate this. The key phrase to Google would be “present value of a growing annuity calculator.”
PV = (C / i - G) * {1 – [(1 + G)/(1 + i)]^n}
PV = present value
C = cash flow per period
n = number of payments
i = interest rate
G = growth rate
The value for PV is your estimation of what the asset is worth today. If this ends up far higher than the market price, you are probably purchasing dollars for quarters. Avoid edge cases, as you are guessing about both the interest and growth rate.
C is the cash flow per period. If you have a high degree of confidence in the culture of the company and it has a long history of being good stewards of retained earnings, you can use the earnings per share (EPS). I usually use the dividend. It is impossible to fake or financially engineer a dividend, and requires less looking through financial documents to make sure it’s what it appears to be. But for, say, Apple or Microsoft or Chevron, feel free to use the EPS.
The number of payments is how many payments you expect while holding the asset. Dividends in American companies are typically quarterly (though some pay monthly or every six months, so check on that), so every multiple of four would represent one year if you choose to do it that way. If n = 16, then you’re expecting to hold the asset for 4 years. You can also put in a year’s worth of dividends and keep n = years rather than quarters.
I typically do n = 30, since 30 years is both a long time horizon that is realistic, and coincides when I will hit “retirement age.” You will have to decide how far ahead you’re planning. For most people, they are net purchasers of investments while working and net sellers while retired, so keep that in mind. Note that using years instead of quarters will lessen the amount of compounding, and will provide some cushion in case you’re wrong.
Interest is one of the two variables you have to guess at. Typically, one would put what you expect the actual long-run interest rate to average for this investment. Unfortunately, this is really difficult. Instead, I use a rate that represents my opportunity cost. There are any number of relatively safe ways to get a 5% yield on money invested, so I generally use i = 5% to represent that this asset has to perform better than a utility or telecom or real estate investment trust. Feel free to use what you feel is most appropriate for you. A higher interest rate will lower the value of the asset, so high-balling this number will provide some cushion in case you’re wrong.
The second variable you have to guess at is the growth rate. If you’re looking at the dividend, you want to know how fast to expect it to grow over time. If you’re using the EPS for C, then you want to see how quickly the total earnings are growing per share. This is extremely difficult to predict. I recommend taking the 5-year growth rate and halving it. Dividends will also be more predictable here, as most companies pay out far less than they make, which means even if EPS grows slowly, the dividend can still grow quickly for many years after a boom is over for the company. Note that lowering your estimate for G will lower the value of the asset, so low-balling this number will provide some cushion in case you’re wrong.
OK, so let’s walk through an example. I’ll use Abbvie, a biotech/pharmaceutical company. It has a quarterly dividend for the coming year of $1.30/share. Its dividend has an 18.5% growth rate over the last 5 years, and has grown it for the last 7 (it’s only been around for 8 years).
I assumed a growth rate (G) of 7%. I used $5.20 as the starting dividend this coming year and used years for my n = 30. As always, I used i = 5%.
This gave me an estimated present value of 1 share of Abbvie at $197.94. As of writing this, Abbvie shares are trading on the market at $103.43. This looks like a screaming buy, but first let’s look at why I have a high degree of confidence.
Note how the interest was higher than the going rate – I used my “low-risk alternative” as an opportunity cost. Abbvie has an extremely high rate of growth for its dividend, so I took less than half of its current rate. I also calculated annually rather than quarterly, which reduces the impact of high rates of growth. That’s three places in the equation where I consciously lowered the estimated value of a share of Abbvie, and it still came out as a strong buy – spending less about 50c for a dollar!
I do this because even if I’m wrong in some or all of my predictions, I now have quite a bit of room to be wrong and still make money. It’s like how you don’t walk next to a steep cliff, right? You should know how to walk where you want to, but there’s always the small chance something could cause you to slip or put a foot wrong. But if your plan is always to be 5 feet away from the edge of the cliff, the odds are that you’ll not go over the edge even if you fall down.
Many people feel this is over cautious. But let my portfolio speak for itself. I’ve beaten the S&P 500 index fund every year except one since 2008. My brokerage only keeps digital records back to Dec 2015, but the S&P 500 returned 101% since then – with dividends reinvested. My own portfolio has returned 256%.
So caution is still very high reward. In fact, if you just don’t lose, you’ll do better than the vast majority of professional money managers (about 85% of whom cannot even match the index funds).
Due diligence still has to occur
Now, we can’t just go straight out and buy Abbvie – though it’s a high profile company that receives lots of investor and regulator scrutiny so it’s less likely to have a landmine than most. Just to make sure, you’ll want to do the following before buying shares in this company:
-Check the debt load. If the debt is very high, has very high interest rates, or has a lot of it maturing very soon, then this is a yellow flag. It doesn’t mean don’t buy, but make sure you understand the structure of the company’s debt and make sure it won’t impair the company’s earnings going forward. This information is found on the balance sheet. Abbvie has $97.287 billion in long-term liabilities such as debt, pension liability, and deferred taxes. That’s a lot compared to their assets, but they also are owed some money, so it nets out about $90 billion.
-What’s the book value? Book value is fairly low at $8.65/share. This is pretty much the assets minus the liabilities. Abbvie is in a knowledge industry, however, so you shouldn’t expect their main assets to be physical capital that can be sold. It’s mostly organizational or human capital from their workforce, so this isn’t worrying. If Abbvie was, say, a retailer with stores and land and inventory, you’d want this to be much, much higher for the share price. There’s no easy way to judge this one, unfortunately, but it’s good to look it up and you’ll eventually get a feel for it. No red flags here.
-What are the catastrophic risks that even you or I could think of? For a company in the pharmaceutical space, the obvious answer is regulatory and political risk. Regulatory risk is just want it sounds like – more regulation which can be either costly to comply with or lower profits. This does have an upside, which is that it makes it harder for new competitors to enter a market, so I tend to be rather sanguine about regulatory risk. Political risk is much more severe. This is when politicians decide to either confiscate a company, target it specifically rather than the industry it’s in, or other ways in which the government is involved with taking rather than regulating. In Anglo countries (US/UK/Canada/Australia), the rule of law is typically strong enough that this doesn’t happen much, as there is usually some kind of due process. Places like China, Argentina, Russia, and the EU are much more likely to nationalize or otherwise capriciously penalize a company due to the prevailing political winds. Abbvie has a global footprint, but that also means it’s diversified against such risk. It’s headquartered in the US, so it’s unlikely someone will simply take the entire company.
-Payout ratio? Abbvie has a fairly high payout ratio (80% for the last completed fiscal year of 2019), as they have been aggressively growing the dividend. That’s another good reason to input a much lower G than the last few years. That being said, Abbvie has been around for 8 years (it was spun off of Abbott Labs) and has grown its dividend for the last 7 years and has announced it will this coming year as well. The payout ratio is pretty high, but not worrisome. It suggests a fairly mature company that’s now returning cash to shareholders. I’d say this is not nothing, but less than a yellow flag for me. Any company with 95%+ payout ratio is much more vulnerable to a dividend cut.
-Credit rating? S&P gives Abbvie a BBB+ grade for its unsecured debt. This is a slight downgrade because their balance sheet is currently digesting a big acquisition from early 2020 (Allergan). Moody’s gives it a Baa2 rating for unsecured debt. These are both good, solid, investment-grade credit ratings (if you were buying the bonds of Abbvie). This looks great.
-Does it need a genius? Some companies run on all cylinders because they have a genius at the helm – often a founder. But what you want is a company any dummy can run, because sooner or later any dummy will. Don’t plan to invest long-term in companies that require skilled management. Abbvie is fairly diversified and has an OK pipeline of research. They also can buy little biotech companies that invent something but can’t navigate the regulations to bring it to market. So pondering giants are actually a good thing. Means they’re hard to break.
So, given that there was nothing obviously treacherous in our basic due diligence, and the extreme discount at which our example is selling for, this would be one you might want to buy! This is what I do for all the companies I invest in.
Notice that there is no story, no excitement, no narrative, no counting on good or bad management. Emotion has no place in investing. You also will notice that we took every opportunity to reduce the risk of losing your capital by always sandbagging the estimated value of the company. You never want to pick up nickels in front of a steamroller. You want the investment to be so obvious it hits you in the face like a baseball bat. If you’re ever on the fence, don’t do it. You don’t have to hit home runs – just don’t strike out.
You can be even more conservative in your estimates than I am. If, for instance, you used 5% growth rate for Abbvie’s dividend, you’d still get a present value of $148.57/share vs the current market price of $103.43. Similarly, you could use a higher interest rate, which would also lower the estimated present value.
You may have to do this calculation with more companies to find one to buy, but even in a very expensive market like today’s, there is always an opportunity. You don’t even have to look at little companies. There’s around 500 companies in the S&P – just start with “A” and work your way through all of them.
A quick note about further reading: I very strongly urge most people to actually read as little as possible on this subject once they get the basics. That’s not because there’s not more to learn, but because I would sadly say the majority of what I see and hear is actively bad advice. But if you do want to keep up with financial news and books and chat boards, the best thing to do is find out what the historical returns of the person giving advice are.
Since WWII, the long-run return on the S&P 500 has generally been just a bit shy of 10% per year. If someone can’t beat that, year-in-and-year-out, then their advice is worthless. As in, you don’t want to accidentally absorb it. This is, unfortunately, true for most professionals. Over the last 15 years, 92.2% of actively managed funds have underperformed a simple S&P 500 index fund (and they charge you fees for the privilege). Beware anyone selling something. The advice here is given freely
That’s why I made a point of mentioning that I have and regularly outperform the standard fund almost every year. Granted, I don’t have many of the regulatory restrictions a public fund would have, but it shows how useful the advice I’m giving here is. You don’t need anything fancy. You don’t need anything high risk. I’ve done this through two deep recessions and the longest bull market in history.
If you want to learn more about investing in general and where I learned how to do this, you can read Benjamin Graham’s The Intelligent Investor. It was written in the 1930s, so much of the technical information is out of date. Skip over that and just read it for the concepts.
Even easier reading is to go online to Berkshire Hathaway’s website and pull Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger’s annual letter to shareholders. Almost all of them have something useful in them and don’t make you do equations.
I am available for questions in the comments
submitted by PaperImperium to gme_meltdown [link] [comments]

My 1 Year Anniversary of Full Time Day Trading. 3 Years In The Business. What I Wish I Could Tell Myself Years Ago.

This industry has a lack of transparency so I'm more than happy to say I will provide lots of that throughout this post with screenshots. There are LOTS of imgur links to back what I say so it's not just words on a post expecting you to just believe what I'm typing.
This post I suppose is "Part 2" my post back in April, "After 2 years of Daytrading. 7 months full time. Here's my advice". I'm doing this to update everyone who came/comes across this in the future. Yes, it is possible. No, it won't be easy. You will pay homage to the rite of passage into this career. I'll also provide some examples of styles of trading so for the newer aspiring traders, there will be some things I rarely see discussed on forums. So here's to 1 year of Full Time Day Trading

TL;DR - You'll become desensitized to trading. Stubborn to other strategies (There are biggebaddemore lucrative strategies. Don't chase them. Why fix what's not broken? I know what works for me and I'm content with it. No strategy is better than another. It's a personal choice. ). Losing individual trades won't faze you, they're inevitable. Profiting certainly feels better. After a while, you won't be as enthralled to trade every morning, it'll become just another part of your day). Trading is just managing your money through a statistic and the medium to execute it is trading on your platform. Think: "If. Then. Because". Your trading plan should be that black and white. Ask "Why" for everything you do and use. If you can't answer it with documented results, drop it.


I get a bunch of messages all the time from people asking - . Out of those who follow me and chat me seeking further tips through my previous posts. I'll be answering the FAQ's and addressing things I see frequently in this sub as far as trading axioms
Disclaimer: I won't sugarcoat anything. I'll share my experiences and add pieces of advice I'd give to those who are currently experiencing the same thing becoming a full time day trader and what day to day life is like, the occasional distress, (DRAWDOWNS). Some of you follow my Twitter for the past few months where I post my daily watchlists with a snippet that reveals my DayTradingBuyingPower. I do this not to brag but to demonstrate that the account does yield growth, I pay myself, and there are days where the balance does not move because there was no edge. I also do this since nobody else shows their account performance. (Yes. You, Mr. YouTube gurus and wannabe gurus).
We do this for income, the numbers on our accounts are real. Treat it as such. Get your initial capital out of your account THEN try to "Scale your account" with your profits AKA The Market's Money.

I'll go over:
•FAQ's that I get in my inbox (I'm still welcome to further questions if I don't answer here)
•Decision Fatigue (You will experience this)
•The previous year (2019-2020) of ups and downs
•How to use my watchlists that I post on Twitter in the morning to your advantage
•The pivotal moment that changed my trading career (NFLX 10-17-19)
•The road to becoming a full time trader. (It won't be fun unless you're handed the money)
•You'll have a better grasp of my strategy (Between ProTip 4 and 5. ProTip 8.)

There are 10 "ProTips" throughout the post that I wish I could tell myself years back and I'll periodically throw them in here as the post goes on. I make posts long in order to segregate those serious about this business and those who will just become another statistic in the failure rate of this business.

At the end of this post, I'll go over the frequent questions I receive such as: (Answers to FAQ at bottom of post.)
  1. "How do you prepare for a trading day?"
  2. "What would you go back to tell yourself?"
  3. "Books?" (The most abused question, but I get it. I could start a public library with just trading books I bought over the years)
  4. "What is your background?"
  5. "What is a normal day for you?"
  6. "How did you discover your strategy?"
  7. "What did you do/How did you get started?"
  8. "What is your % return?" (Not a fun question since a trading account is not an index or investment account. Intraday traders do not measure performance in %. Most are measured in "R".)
  9. "Is enough to start trading?"
  10. "Why do you need so many monitors"? (This one is rarely asked but I do see it discussed on platforms and people trading on mobile phones love giving flack to anybody who trades on multiple monitors. Hint: Everyone's different. Whatever works for the individual. There are no rules in trading. The only rule is that it works.)

My story:

Background:
I heard about daytrading during the 2008 crash while in high school. We all want to make more while working less. I entertained day trading from time to time but always realized I never had enough money. Horrible mindset because I could have still researched WHILE saving money to put into my trading business.
2015 - I opened my first trading account with Scottrade while in the Marines. Apparently if you have a net worth of over $1,000,000 you can get out early (Biggest rumor ever).
I frivolously bought crap penny stocks. In short - I was a hair away from gambling. What made it NOT gambling was the fact that at least I owned something tangible (Securities of a company) and anything can happen. Buy low sell high was my strategy. Didn't work obviously. No idea what I was doing. I'd buy and hold hoping to wake up to the stock price being way higher and it never happened.

ProTip #1 : If you hold a trade overnight... It is not daytrading. Stop turning into an investor because you can't admit a minor defeat.

2017 - I started taking this business seriously while working in the oilfield as a Logistics Planner (If you're wondering what company since I am asked this from time to time, Google: "World's largest oilfield services company").
No kids, girlfriend/wife or financial obligations. I worked 10AM - 7PM CST and would trade the open from home for roughly 1 hour. Later I was offered to be a Data Analyst... Only downside was... I couldn't trade since I had to be at work now at 8AM CST during the market open. In the moment of signing the offer letter, I was bummed thinking, "No more trading,"
That wasn't the case though. You can still build your trading business with a 9-5 and while never making one trade. The data is there.

ProTip #2 : We all see the same data. It's there forever. Many strategies show their edge both live and in hindsight the same. (Especially if you trade patterns). You CAN build your business as a trader without even taking a trade. You CAN build your strategy while working a 9-5. Just because you're not trading, does not mean you can't build your business through research. You won't know how you'll react to the losses but at least you can diagnose the raw data with a large enough sample size for assurance and confidence.

If you have a 9-5 and want to go fulltime into this business. Stay for a bit, save, live so far beneath your means that it is almost miserable, (depending on your expenses, area you live, family etc) and get a few hundred sample sizes of your strategy! And for your PTO/days off... trade the open. I sacrificed my vacation days to trade.
After 2 years in corporate America, eating cheap food, never going out, saving relentlessly, I made the decision to just do it and resigned. I went straight into the ring of fire known as trading. That was on: September 23rd, 2019
"" (Sound familiar?)

When you hear these types of comments.. your response should be: "Nobody put the time I put into this. The 90%+ who fail, don't have it all written out, computerized backtests, manual backtests, statistics, SOP manuals, JUST like the job I have which is a business, I'm just another cog in their wheel. I'll just be wearing all the hats in my trading business. Instead of Oil&Gas, it's just for trading". One thing I see here a lot is people saying to trade X amount of months/years or make X.

ProTip #3 - Think in man hours, not calendar. Example:
Trader A puts in 1 hour of study/work/research everyday for 1 year. (365 Hours)
Trader B puts in 12 hours of work every day for 4 months. (~1,450 Hours)
Trader A lives in a major city while Trader B lives in the middle of nowhere. (Think cost of living)
2 totally different living expenses and 2 different calibers of dedication. I'd put my money on Trader B because he put in more man hours. (~1,000 more hours on the clock to be more exact).

ProTip #4 - Have a cushion in your account AND your personal bank account. Having a strategy is great but you won't know entirely if you can fulfill and execute your plan until you experience the ups and downs both short and long term. A strategy is constant over long periods of time... there will be days, weeks, and perhaps a month here and there where you aren't making much money. We hear all the time, "Trade like a casino". Casinos don't make money day after day but the odds are in there favor over the long haul.

Month 1 of full time trading was great:
Immediately after going full time, the first month (September 2019 to October 2019), I did super well. Business as usual. No stress. Everything going as planned. No turbulence. At least not like I had ever experienced...

The 2 prerequisites I had before resigning was:
  1. Show consistency in returns. Consistent Sharpe Ratio.
  2. Make a 4 figure trade (I achieved this while short 100 shares on ROKU September 20th, 2019 and even made a victory post if you scroll down my profile's posts.)

First life-changing trading lesson learned as a full time trader:
That money printing spree ended on NFLX October 17th, 2019. Less than 1 month of being a full time trader. Deviating and going against my plan I actually made $500 in a matter of 4 minutes. If you follow my watchlists on Twitter, I always trade with the direction of the gap. If I notate, "Long Watches" that means I will only trade it IF (and only IF) I see a long biased pattern. Likewise I will only be looking to short my "Short Watches". Plenty of times I'll call out a ticker and it immediately goes the other way. No harm no foul because there was no long biased pattern to confirm my thesis.
On 10-17-2019, I went against my plan and it worked.. NFLX gapped up to resistance and I went short when it tanked off of a short pattern.(This is known as fading). The market gave me a free lunch and then some. So now I'm walking on air in my mind:
"I'm an absolute unit"
"I'll do it again and clear another $500 to make it a 4 figure day before 9:30AM Central"
"Should have quit my job way earlier being this good."
Within 30 minutes of the open. I gave all $500 back. Yes I wanted to trade it back. Never have I had the desire to smash anything but I do understand those who do! Yes I stood there and felt like each passing second was wasted opportunity. The next 24 hours were long!

ProTip #5: It's circumstances like that that help you in the long run. FunFact: I never once deviated from my plan since. Not ever again.

"I could have paid for my groceries and electric for the month after 4 minutes of trading if I just took the free pass the market gave me" I felt dumb but in hindsight, I'm glad at what happened. It was this exact instance that married me to my strategy/business plan. The next day and the 7 trading days following. I didn't make 1 profiting trade. My longest ever drawdown - 11 straight trades. While researching I found out this was Decision Fatigue (I'll go over this shortly below)

Put yourself in that situation...
You have bills and your income is strictly trading. I don't care how much a robot you think you are or how strongly you believe in probabilities, when you were in an office less than a month ago making almost 6 figures sitting in an air conditioned office knowing direct deposit is on its way every other Friday no matter how well or poorly you performed at work.. Now you're in the hot seat. Its a bottomless feeling. Now all of your friends and families words are ringing in your head.
But just like a boxing match.. you gotta take a hit to get a hit. Win some, lose some, shake hands and get back to normal life. Water under the bridge.
Mind you:
•No guaranteed direct deposit every 2 weeks.
•No more medical/dental insurance.
•401K retirement is no longer being matched.

11 trades is nothing. You only require ~5.5 trades at 2:1RRR to make it back OR 3.5 trades at 3:1RRR. It's nothing especially in your research because you can easily just scroll a little more and see, "Oh that's just a drawdown. No big deal". How will you react in real time? Will you buckle or choke? But the thing is, I was skipping trades out of fear and JUST so happened to be picking all of the unsuccessful ones. (Decision Fatigue)
Think about those 2 weeks of being in a drawdown. Half of the month. You're not just stagnant, your account is bleeding slowly but surely. Next time you're looking at your spreadsheet/backtest/predictive model/research.. try to put yourself in those days of drawdown. It's not just 11 boxes of red with "-1R" or "Loss" in them. The screenshot above on Imgur is just a recent example.
Think about your daily routine, going to the gym, hanging with friends, grocery shopping, cooking, going to bed, waking up, doing a routine, then losing again.. and again.. and again. Try to think of life during those 300+ hours (Weekends too) of, "I haven't made money. I've lost money. And I still have bills. After paying them, I'll be closer to my set Risk of Ruin".
Here's a lesson you won't learn before going fulltime but I'll do my best to emphasize it here:
Pick a strategy. And stick with it. It can literally be anything. Don't spread yourself thin watching 20+ tickers and be a jack of all patterns/tickers. Be a master of 1 pattern and master of 1 circumstance. There's this real thing called "Decision Fatigue" which explains exactly why what happened.. happened. The article explains that the 2 outcomes of this mental strain known as "Decision Fatigue" is:
  1. Risky Decision-Making
  2. Decision Avoidance
Sound familiar? Does it kind of make sense now? As a new trader you have YouTube, Facebook, StockTwits, Twitter, "gurus", books recommended on Amazon, all throwing their ideas/strategies around, the market has opportunities littered all over.. Decision Fatigue is inevitable for the unprepared. Decision Fatigue happens in every profession. If you mess up at your 9-5, its just a blunder, your paycheck will remain the same. Just a slap on the wrist and move on. With trading, you make a mistake.. it's less food on your table, lights don't stay on, and/or water isn't running. That pressure adds up. No wonder so many fail...
The signs of Decision Fatigue:
•Procrastination.
•Impulsivity.
•Avoidance.
•Indecision.
When you find what clicks with you AND its either statistically or performance proven, have the courage to risk a healthy sum of your capital into it. There are strategies/patterns/styles of trading littered all over the internet:
Very broad example:
"IF circumstance happens THEN "Execution". Stoploss is XYZ. Target is XYZ. BECAUSE over a series of Y trades, I will make $X,XXX.xx".


ProTip #6 : Strategies are all over the internet. It's your account/money, backtest it. People share their strategies here all the time and although I don't agree with them because I know what works for me, it's something to chew off of for you newer traders. YouTube is a harbor with people who give just enough info to figure their style out. You will lose trades. Sit for some screen-time and pay homage to the edge that you discover. All in due time.

Insert key metrics and find correlations. This is how you create checks and balances to create/formulate a black and white trading plan. When I first started doing this, my spreadsheet(s) had so many columns it was annoying and would kill my desire to continue working. You'll find things that are imperative and some that are unimportant. For a lack of more colorful terms: "Throw stuff at the wall and see what sticks" Trim the fat. Rinse and repeat.

Here's some things I used to remind myself of and perhaps it'll ring some bells for you:

Surrender your capital to your edge. If you truly accept the risk and trust your proven edge, losses don't feel like anything nor do profits. Although we're not here to put on losing trades and yes it does feel nice to profit. I still from time to time will excited when I hit target after a series of multiple profiting trades depending on my mood.
If you're nervous or your heart starts beating quicker when you hear the sound effect of a trade getting entered/filled. Be honest with yourself and ask yourself if you're truly accepting the risk.
Things you can't take to the bank:
  1. RRR.
  2. Win-Rate
  3. Number of trades.
  4. "This one great trade that I hit target in less than 30 seconds and I got filled better than expected"
All of these are integral metrics. But you're trading to make money. It's up or down, green or red, profit or loss, TRUE or FALSE. So with that said, find what works flawlessly and is easy to follow. Checks and Balances. Then allocate a good sum of risk into it. I read it here all the time, "Don't risk too much" and that's great and true for new traders. But don't sell yourself short. Push yourself over the edge and admit that you know your stuff. Think of Trader A and Trader B. If you've put the time in.. don't sell yourself short. You've built enough courage to learn a business so many fail at. This business has such a negative connotation. But remember that not everybody can handle meritocracies and that's exactly what the market is. Don't try to be the best, just work harder than everyone else and the output of your input will be relative.


ProTip #7: YouTube trading ads from gurus... they're subconsciously making you think you're a novice trader. It's in their marketing. They study marketing psychology. The EASIEST things to sell:
  1. Health
  2. Wealth
  3. Happiness
People that are desperate for those things are the most vulnerable and these "Traders" marketers are fantastic at portraying all 3 of those things at once.


ProTip #8 (Broken record alert) : Write a business plan. Your strategy shouldn't take longer than 4 sentences to explain to another trader. When you have a plan that's proven through a statistic and WAIT for it to happen, you feel 100X better taking the trade. You don't even care too much when it results in a loss. Because that was your plan, you accept it much better, and you know it was just an expense for a winning trade.


Want my strategy? "I scan for stocks with a market cap of over 250M, 10k shares premarket, gapping to support or resistance, priced over $10, and I look for a pattern biased to the direction of the overnight gap. It isn't rocket science. Check my Twitter, look at the dates I posted, and you'll notice the gist. Yes this is an edge but not the entire edge. How fast can you sift through 15 time frames? How long does it take you to fill out your order ticket? Your Fibonacci time extensions with 5 EMA's and Bollinger Bands aren't helping you. They're lagging. If they work for you, great. In my experience, they hindered my visibility.


Pro Tip #9: Yes statistics are highly applicable to trading. Patterns do work. All patterns do is tell you WHEN to enteexit, and how many shares. Humans will never think differently of money. Be the frontrunner of the market's emotions. Nobody remembers the indecisive leader. Risk taking is a commonality amongst leaders. Trading requires courage and it's O.K. to show a bit of confidence as long as you also have the humility to admit when you're in a bad trade. (Notice how I didn't put, "wrong". You're only "wrong" when you deviate from a proven strategy.)


ProTip #10: Risk management is 24/7. I've never heard anyone mention this but think about it a little bit. Having financial obligations can become stressful regardless of how you earn your income but its far more stressful while running a business. Not just any business, but a business where you can go to work on your A-game, do every single last thing right, trade without emotion etc... and still walk away with less money than what you came to work with. Meanwhile somebody who JUST started trading made a 4 figure profit not knowing what the heck the difference between ETB, HTB, or NTB. Think of it like this, a JV high school baseball player can hit a homerun off of an MLB pitcher once.. but how will he fare at the end of the season? Traders don't predict stock prices, traders predict the outcome over hundreds of trades. People chat me asking what TO do rather than what NOT to do. You don't learn labor intensive jobs or how to fly a plane by what to do.. you learn what NOT to do to stay alive.

That's all I have. Once you have a trading plan underway and you're executing it, you don't have much time when your hobbies are cheap but I still do respond to chats/messages. I do get asked from a previous post when I'll build a website and to answer that: I'm learning how to build a site on rainy days. Can't put a definitive date on it. I will say that its coming, if you don't give up on this business in the next year or so, you'll see it. What I plan on putting on there:
  1. RiskReward Calculators
  2. Position size Calculators
  3. EV Calculator
  4. Dictionary with examples
I just don't want some generic WordPress site. I want my website to be stellar and a great resource for aspiring traders. Something I didn't have learning this business. I want it to be something I'd consider a staple in a trader's resources. Perhaps one day it will be referenced on this sub frequently.
FAQ:
  1. "How do you prepare for a trading day?" I get behind the computer about 20 minutes before the bell. Reason being: "If you study long. You'll study wrong". If the chart isn't grabbing my attention and gets me excited, then I flick to the next ticker. I don't even know the companies I trade half the time nor do I care about a news report some journalist wrote. Also there is no magic news outlet that lets you know about "Major events that affect stock prices". If there was, I wouldn't be here because we're all subscribed to the same edge nor would I be trading my style.
  2. "What would you go back to tell yourself?" Get more data. Save a little more, your hairline and sleep schedule will thank you. Take only perfect trades and don't feel forced to trade. There will be days you don't touch an order ticket. And days where you are busy and have tunnel vision. Next thing you know its time to shut it down for the day.
  3. "Books?" - I try to humble myself when answering this but off the cuff, they're all mediocre. Andrew Aziz's was ok, definitely get it, it's only a few bucks on Kindle. Just don't expect it to give you strategies BUT it will give you ideas. If you're brand new, it is good as it will teach you the common vernacular of a day trader. Mark Douglas was interesting but his YouTube seminar recordings are much better. No book, Facebook group, YouTube channel is going to be the end all be all perfect strategy. Expect losses. Don't be a one hitter quitter after suffering a few tiny losses/paper cuts. Stick to it. Most books will help you familiarize yourself with the common vocabulary amongst traders and will hint ideas. It's your job to formulate the strategy and template for research.
  4. "What is your background?" I was a logistics planner for a major oilfield services company. Later I then became a data/buyer analyst so yes, data analytics/research was a 2nd language for me entering trading. I did have that upper hand and did shave off months if not years for me.
  5. "What is a normal day for you?" I'm always done trading after 10:30AM Central. I will hold onto a trade until right before the bell if it hasn't hit either target or StopLoss by the time I leave the house but it is absolutely closed in entirety by 2:55PM Central. After I trade, I enjoy the day. No I'm not riding around in my Lambos posting IG/Snapchat (I have neither) stories of my profits with my private jet waiting on a runway trying to sell an $7 eBook or a $100 membership (HINT HINT). I grill/cook, read, workout, ride my motorcycle, attack my other sources of income (small businesses I'm building), hit the driving range, shoot guns, etc. I live in Texas. Life is cheap and fun here.
  6. "How did you discover your strategy?" I bought TradeIdeas premium, went through all of their computerized backtesting patterns, tested them. Then did what I mentioned earlier... Tried to find correlations in metrics. It distilled the trades to a strict criteria and here I am. I post on average 4-5 tickers on my watchlist. 7 max. I do not like spreading my attention thin across multiple tickers. I do not recommend buying TradeIdeas, it does have lots of bugs.
  7. "What did you do/How did you get started?" Was a data analyst, was good at research and applied it to trading. My incentive was, "I could have made more money trading rather than sitting in 2+ hours of roundtrip traffic and 9 hours in an office. The data is there. Everybody sees the same charts all over the world. There are ways to make this possible"
  8. "What is your % return?" (Not a fun question since a trading account is not an index or investment account. Intraday traders do not measure performance in %) I trade to make money AND pay myself, so my equity curve will look like a small loss or small gain after I pay myself. % return? I measure my account's performance in Sharpe Ratio and Risk Units. My Sharpe Ratio is ~1.85. While I yield roughly .8 - 1 R per trading day. Some weeks I make 10R. Some weeks I lose 2R. Yeah one week I might make $2,500. But the next week I might lose $300. The following week my strategy will yield $0 and the last week I might make $1,000. Some weeks suck. Some weeks are great. But overall. Just shy of 1R per trading day. Some days I'm super busy taking trade after trade. Some days I'll shut it down after 5 minutes without even filling out an order ticket. Some days I won't even see the open because there is no edge for me.. Keywords... "For me".
  9. "Is enough to start trading?" Depends on where you live. Are you restricted to PDT? If not then how much are you obligated to expenses? I live in Texas. Things are cheap here. If you live in NYC or The Bay Area your expenses will be astronomical compared to mine. A $30,000 account is totally doable for a single Texan with low monthly expenses. Now if you're in California or New York? I'm sure you'll fall below 25k if you have 1 bad month. Also depends on if you have other sources of income or a full/part time job. I encourage every trader and aspiring trader to have multiple sources of income, don't rely solely on trading. Not just for the sake of mitigating pressure but also for sanity. If you have a family to provide for, I don't know what that's like, you never know when Little Johnny is going to randomly pick up Trombone lessons for a school program/play while little Suzie needs transmission work in her car because a simple solenoid went out. $1,700 later.
  10. "Why do you need so many monitors?" I use 3 for trading. The 4th is for music. The other 2 are useless while trading. That's for trading though. When I made the decision to go full time, I knew I was about to go off the chain with research. And sifting between spreadsheets, a platform to see multiple timeframes for a pattern to backtest. My attention span is short, I'll lose my train of thought before I open the other tab to input data. But the main reason was for research. It's such a time saver and is a headache repellant when doing research while everything is laid out in front of you. Now that I have a system. I'll most likely be treating myself to 2 ultrawides for Christmas.
As always, thank you to everybody who takes time out to message me and letting me know some people read these and show appreciation. I would say, "Good luck" but there is no luck in trading. Just statistics. Remember that!
In conclusion: Yes. Full time trading is possible, depending where you live/monthly expenses and obligations. You're more likely to become a profitable trader than a professional athlete. There is a level of uncertainty each day, perhaps each week, doubtful each month, and definitely not each year. If I ever want a raise, I just consult my business plan and financials, then decide if I can handle it mentally. If you have medical issues, get a part time job for the benefits. If you're healthy, just be careful.

All the best!
-CJT2013
submitted by CJT2013 to Daytrading [link] [comments]

Player/Analyst Tweets & Other Things – LCS Lock In Knockout Stage Quarters - TSM vs C9

Good Morning/Afternoon/Evening GrubhubGamers!
Today’s Live Analyst: Doublelift
LCS Season 11 Lock-in Tournament Format Explained
tl;dw: 3 week long tourney for experimentation (no affect on standings), Bo1 group stage round robin, top 4 of each group go to a Bo3 single elim bracket stage (bo5 for semis and finals).
GROUP A GROUP B
TSM FLY
TL C9
100T EG
CLG DIG
GG IMT
Today's Match Up:
TSM C9
Huni Fudge
Spica Blaber
PowerOfEvil Perkz
Lost Zven
SwordArt Vulcan

PREGAME

Tweets:
TSM Dunc:
  • Shoutout to 100T for allowing EU TSM fans to see our series before midnight.
C9 Veigarv2
  • Excited for our series vs @TSM tonight! Always fun to compete vs your friends, good luck @Spicalol and especially coach @Bjergsen
    • Dunc: GL bud.
SK Treatz
  • Almost forgot how much fun competing is, having the drive to not be afraid to make mistakes as a group and improving together is so much fun. Confident that we will be a great team by the end of the season even though we obviously aren't there yet
  • I learned a lot about myself and my mentality in TSM, especially how to deal with setbacks. A group full of people not afraid of making mistakes and looking silly is a group that will develop fast over time :D
Tim Sevenhuysen
  • Today 100 2-0 IMT C9 2-0 TSM
  • IMT can win if they coin flip some early bot lane aggro and win, and transfer bot pressure into mid. Have to play high-risk. TSM need better drafts, probably should try playing through top side, if they want to upset. #LCS
C9 Perkz
  • Gooood morning ! So hyped to play TSM today and the NA king himself @Bjergsen Can’t wait for some fun games
LCS Official Twitter:
  • Will the next series end in a #C9WIN or a #TSMWIN? @Cloud9 face off against @TSM next in the 2021 #LCS Lock In Quarterfinals!

DRAFT GAME 1

Doublelift:
  • Zven isn't the carry on C9. Vulcan does ALOT. And Fudge.. does a lot too... in the other direction.
  • A lot of teams talk about how teams need to play "around Gnar's bar" but that's not how it works. It's up to the top laner to manager their bar to the team. All pro top laners will say it's up to them to manage it properly, not vice versa.
  • Spica loves Nidalee, he is willing to play it anytime.
  • PoE's Lucian? Alright TSM lost. Sorry guys.. I have no faith in his Lucian.
    • TF loses the 1v1 between Lucian so Lucian should in theory have more roaming time. Would've been a really good game for PoE to play Galio though.
  • Analysts need to stop saying Gnar is good or bad. It's all situational. Last game's Gnar was pretty good.
  • Gragas top is pretty strong. Draft ended up being even between TSM and C9.
Dlim:
  • turn on stream see tsm's 1-2-3 and their draft already seems so flawed.
C9 Jack
  • Let’s have a good game @TSMReginald !

DURING GAME 1

Doublelift:
  • Thinks both drafts are pretty good. C9's draft is pretty obvious in terms of how to play it. They dive with TF. TSM's is more about kiting and poking.
  • After the trade(~2:30) bot lane. TSM is losing bot so they should just solely focus on farming.
  • Swordart takes really bad trades. Isn't sure what he is doing. Match up isn't that bad either(~3:30)
  • PoE plays way too greedy (~4:25) He should've just flashed/cleansed instead of trying to save them
  • Doesn't like that Swordart decided to afk under turret with Lost. He should know that Nautilus was going to roam mid. He should've matched Vulcan's roam.(Rewinds to ~3:50)
  • TSM seems to move too slowly. Wants Swordart to be way more proactive in matching numbers with C9. Doesn't know if it's solely just because of them being behind from earlier. (~7)
  • The teamfight (~9) results in a 1 for 1 and he thinks Fudge plays really badly. Hasn't seen him play well at all.
  • Very well played cc-chaining the closest target by TSM. Fudge is a cannon minion. Aatrox is more of a scaling champ but he doesn't really out scale Gragas. Doesn't really beat him in lane either.(~12:30) Zven hits the perfect W to get out so he can save flash.
  • TSM is in good control of the game at this point (~14) C9 is supposed to be ahead in gold because of TF passive.
  • Doesn't like that Swordart decided not to stopwatch or flash. (~14:30)
  • Again, I have not seen Fudge play a good sequence. I like when people can talk shit and back it up. Fudge is not it.(~15:10)
  • RNG gods hate PoE. PoE needs ONE crit to kill Zven but the gods did not give it to him. Might've been able to get it without a crit if he played it better. (~16:20)
  • Perkz is crazy for just facechecking bushes. He is face checking nidalee/Lucian.(17:30)
  • TSM wins this game 100% It's just a Huni gap.(~18:20) Seems like a game about engage vs disengage. TSM has great disengage.
  • C9 needs to play perfectly. TSM is on ocean soul point and the game gets harder and harder for C9 as the game goes on (19:40)
  • Ming is ALWAYS covering PoE for the potential TF ult. Really likes to see it (~20)
  • DL thinks the play at (~21) was really easy to make by Swordart and is surprised he messed it up.
  • TOP GAP THIS GAME. PUT HUNI ON TANKS FROM NOW ON. Blaber hard trolled the fight by charging on Swordart. Perkz with the mad man ult onto Lost and they trade 1 for 1 but TF is much more useful than Jhin at this point so the trade was in favor for TSM.(24)
  • C9 should sub in whoever their academy top laner is. Huni just gapped Fudge.
  • Time to put Darshan in.
  • How did TSM lose with Ocean soul and up 4k gold?? C9 should not be able to win this game.(~28)
  • Lost isn't playing the game badly despite the score. Playing fine. (1/3/5 at 29:40)
  • Huni with ocean is never going to die. He can just afk in the fight and do cartwheels at his desk and live. (~31) Lost or PoE has to die for C9 to win.
  • (~31:30) PERKZ HAS NO FLASH. SOMEONE FLASH ON HIM. Swordart please!
  • Fudge aka the Cannon Minion (~32:20)
  • In hindsight, TSM choosing to play the counter-engage game is fine. Thinks Naut should've ulted onto Lost instead of PoE.
  • Excited to see Darshan back in the LCS.
  • Riot please nerf souls. Ocean/Infernal Soul is impossible to win against. Do-able to win against mountain/cloud soul.
Ras
  • The one timer POE needs hover to crash the wave vs tp its a 3v1. (3v1 first blood on PoE)
    • Veigarv2: ;)
Veigarv2
  • Alistar is on the bench atm, need to give tsm a chance!
Liquid Nick Temp
  • ???? 100T>TL>TSM>C9 ???? Wtf lcs script

POST GAME 1

Doublelift
  • Huni vs Fudge was like someone beating on an elementary school kid. I want to see them both vs Alphari.
  • TSM 2-0 EZ Clap if C9 don't get a top laner.
Lolesports Stats:
LCS Official
  • Game one goes to @TSM as they defeat @Cloud9 for the 1-0 series lead! #TSMWIN #LCS
Cloud9 (Twitter)
  • Well, congrats on making Semis, TSM. There's no way that C9 come back from an 0-1. #LCS
Kien
  • C9 Lost
TSM Dunc
  • Not even close.
TSM Report
Tim Sevenhuysen
  • C9 vs. TSM game 1 thoughts: #LCS
  • Huni's awake!
  • Blaber + Vulcan pretty good map activity and playmaking work but playing bot into mid when you have TF and Kai'sa is a bit odd.
  • Fudge played most team fights pretty timidly, which is a bit ironic. Hope he can loosen up.
  • It's very difficult to play mid-into-bot when enemy mid lane is Lucian, so I get it. Would have to rewatch to see a) could Perkz have handled the 1v1 aspects better maybe?, b) did C9 have windows to bring Perkz bot that they didn't seize properly?

DRAFT GAME 2

Doublelift:
  • Doesn't get how people can say a team is going to be really strong with an unproven player like Fudge. Smurfing in academy is the easiest thing to do for an LCS level player. So many people are good in academy and suck in LCS. It's like saying you have a good solo queue winrate.
  • Surprised by PoE playing TF. TSM is comfortable blinding Nidalee since it is Spica's best champ.
  • Gnar 4th pick actually wouldn't be that bad. Good pick against engage, awful versus kite comps.
  • Surprised Perkz wants Akali here. TF can reveal Akali in shroud.
  • Huni is either one of or THE best GP in NA.
  • TSM bot lane should have bot pressure with these picks. Wants Swordart to have more influence this game. Is not happy with how he has been playing. Says he's been playing "afk".
C9 Veigarv2
  • alistar has been brought out
Kelsey Moser
  • Fudge played teamfights pretty questionably in OPL and when he initially joined Academy I had question marks when C9 chose him over Licorice, but Fudge seems to ramp up when he gets comfortable, so I do expect him to play a lot better over the course of the season
  • Also worth noting: I wouldn't want to play Aatrox into TSM's comp that game, seems like a quality League of Legends experience up there with having a loving conversation with my fellow Summoners in All Chat
    • Pastrytime: Yeah seems like for a lot of people who didn't watch his Academy career they forgot/weren't aware of the 1500 Ornn games he first played on C9A while finding his footing.
LS
  • C9's drafts are out of this world bad in both games, absolutely insane LOL
SK Treatz
  • . @Spicalol when he gets Nidalee free win once again
Rogue (Twitter)
  • Props to @TSM & @C9 for integrating their imports so fast to the #LCS

DURING GAME 2

Doublelift:
  • Good thing about Alistar is that he provides a shit ton of sustain for his ADC. When the wave crashes he heals adc for 100/200 each time. So Zven can take trades.
  • Fudge is just so... (~3:20) whatever I'm over flaming Fudge... It's too easy.
  • Spica has been tracking jungler since minute 1. Look at him taking Krugs. He can do this confidently because he's been tracking him so well (~3:50) Really blows to be Blaber right now.
  • Huge advantage to TSM right now. Really good early game. Spica can do whatever he wants (4:40)
    • Wouldn't have mattered if Perkz ran flash. Flash gold card spear isn't dodgeable.
  • FUDGE. Darshan took over! That cask was sick (~5:50)
  • Happy to see Swordart follow Alistar's roam this game (~7:40) Still surprised Alistar is the one with first move though.
  • TSM is very dragon-focused this game. C9 have no ults so they cannot contest this drag. (~10:30)
    • C9 has a lot of mental pressure on them right now since they just lost a game and are losing early drags again. TSM has soul point on the next one (~11:40)
  • The timing of C9's play here at (14:40) is bad. You don't want your ults down near drag time. TSM should get the next one for free (~1min before 3rd drag).
    • It's on Fudge to carry. Doesn't like that he is afk in lane. He should be helping his team.
  • Really good positioning by C9 @ 3rd drag. They had a good tp ward and the cask was great by Fudge.
  • Fudgev9 this game. Perkz has done zero this game. (~21:30)
  • PoE is playing really poorly this game. (~25) TF should've snowballed really well with his passive and taken over the game with item advantage. TSM's bot lane got heavily outroamed by Vulcan despite having the advantage. C9 Bot lane is currently on a different level from TSM's.

POST GAME 2

Doublelift:
  • Not shameful to get outroamed by Vulcan. He's a great player. Huni couldn't get back into the game after that first gank.
Kien
  • C9 Won (Tweeted C9 Lost last game)
C9 Veigarv2
  • B_N A_IST_R @TSM Solve this puzzle and maybe you can win.
    • Allorim: BAN AAISTAR
G2 esports (Twitter)
  • Impor- NA Twisted Fates man
    • 196 cs 1/5/3
    • 251 cs 1/2/7
Cloud9 (Twitter)
IWD
  • Just first pick gragas, whichever top laner gets it will win
TSM Report
  • The #LCS squad drops Game 2 of the Lock In Quarterfinals as the series goes to a tie-breaking Game 3.
LCS Official
  • Game three incoming! @Cloud9 bounce back in game two and pick up the win against @TSM to tie the series at 1-1! #C9WIN #LCS
Vedius
  • EU mids kinda running it down this game not gonna lie
TSM Dunc
  • We just wanted more scrims vs C9. It's all calculated.
Allorim
  • Great Grag ults this game from Fudge

DURING DRAFT GAME 3

Doublelift:
  • Wants to see Kaisa/Samira from Lost. Doesn't like the sit back and scale strat from Lost.
  • Swordart and Perkz have been somewhat disappointing so far. They should be a level ahead of everyone else.
    • Knows Swordart can step it up. He played against him and Worlds. It's just a pre-season tourney.
  • Jhin... don't like it. Guess it's his comfort pick.
  • Blaber's Kindred. Jensen used to praise Blaber's Kindred since he's so insane at it. Jensen never praises anyone unless they play really insane.
    • Blaber's Olaf/Kindred is ban worthy.
  • Can't believe C9 gave over Gragas. Gragas is great into Galio/Camille/Kindred Also can't believe C9 banned Kaisa, he's not going to play it. Lost locks in Jhin every time, why ban Kaisa?
  • Really likes the Azir pick since it shouldn't ever die to Camille Galio.
  • Sivir is a really good pick into Jhin.
  • Really don't like the Bard pick from Swordart. It is not good into Sivir at all. But it seems like TSM is going for a disengage/kite comp so it makes sense.
  • TSM: Run away/Kite Back Comp. Jhin/Azir hold on until 2/3 items. 2/3 items and it's GG. No way C9 wins.
  • C9 have to engage perfectly. Once PoE gets Zhonyas he can cancel Camille ult. C9 doesn't win unless they kill Azir.

DURING GAME 3

Doublelift:
  • TSM got the same ward as last game which is pretty good. They know where Blaber starts again.
  • Graves was a fantastic pick against this comp. Doesn't need any help against Camille/Galio/Alistar. Completely self-sufficient against those champs.
  • Should be a easy lane bot side early on. Double ranged versus Alistar
  • Huni is messing up trades top side. He is diveable atm (~3:10)

  • Really likes how TSM have strong pink ward coverage in C9's Jungle. They're currently in great control of the game. (~7:50) C9 really wanted good things to happen early with their comp and nothing happened. Down a drag and 500 gold early game is pretty bad.
  • Fudge is playing with his monitor off. TSM chases Perkz halfway across the map and Fudge is just afk pushing his lane.(9:20)

  • TSM shouldn't lose this game once mid has items. (~16:40) Perkz is getting bullied around
  • What was that from Fudge (~17:45) He is smoking something. Vulcan is saving the game every time. Humongous support gap every game so far.
  • "Step-herald I'm stuck! Oh no! .... and it doesn't do anything. Tragedy"(21)
  • Swordart is so hesistant... missing free kills. He needed to ult while the target was still slowed and he didn't to use his exhaust on Zven when he was being chased top. (~22) TSM have had great vision this game though.
  • Ming is a beast. (~24:55) Makes every jungler seem like they can't smite for shit even though Blaber didn't have smite. Massive gold swing for TSM. PoE now has stop watch. Huge.
  • Fudge made a really good play (~26:30) PoE just needs to wait for his flash to come back up and the next drag can be a big swingg for TSM. It's really hard for Lost to play this game since he needs to play like an entire screen away. Also Huni needs to sell the tear and buy a stopwatch.
  • Good call by C9. Being down 3 drags means TSM is forced to prevent dragon soul and C9 can be anywhere else in the mean time. They (C9) decided to grow instead of risking the team fight. Sivir 16 is massive. More movespeed and for longer.(29:30)
  • "Fudge Poggers" (31:50)
  • Blaber cannot smite to save his life. (32 PoE Steals) TSM should win from this point on. 2 free Barons.
  • Blaber survives with 1 hp after getting shurima'd out of his ult. Disgusting stuff. TSM really needed to win that since it meant infernal. PoE played it amazingly and then Blaber played it amazingly.
  • You have to believe you are good mechanically if you want to be a pro adc. Lost seems like he falls into comfort every game picking Jhin. You need to feel confident in your skills and play the spicy possible outplay champ. like Samira into Kaisa. Lost seems to always bank on scaling and needs to become more confident in himself.(37:20)
Azael
  • Huni ulted Blaber out of Smite range I think so POE could steal that Baron! Insane play at match point for TSM!

POST SERIES

TSM

Huni
  • nothing yet
Spica
  • nothing yet
PowerOfEvil
  • Gg @Cloud9 Not where we want to be but def a better showing than our last games Was fun facing @C9Perkz after all these years - gl in the rest of the tourny
Lost
  • nothing yet
SwordArt
  • nothing yet
Coach Bjergsen
  • nothing yet
Kayys
  • GG to C9 & TL, loads to improve but am feeling positive for LCS 2021 Also can the LCS/LEC move to a b03 system please. Actually a huge advantage for eastern block teams to have more stage games, especially for rookies
Curry
  • nothing yet
TSM (Twitter)
TSM Report
  • Our #LCS squad drops Game 3 as we bow out of the #LCS Lock In. The team returns on February 5th for the start of LCS Spring Split.
Dunc
  • Was a really fun practice tournament. Really happy Riot put it on. Pumped for LCS now Fisted hand

C9

Fudge
  • nothing yet
Blaber
  • nothing yet
Perkz
  • Wooo we proceed further on ! ☺️☺️
Zven
  • If Rekkles can play it so can I
Vulcan
  • Haha hey @JackEtienne ? in reply to tweet last year:
    • hey @JackEtienne what happens if i turbo destroy 6 mil $ swordart next year?
    • Jack: hi-5.gif
Coach Reignover
Mithy
Cloud9 Twitter
C9 Jack
C9 Veigarv2
  • 🐮 moo moo 🐮alicopter 🐮Q FLASH W 🐮 milk milk 🐮 Fail Q = win 🐮 GG XD 🐮 @VulcanLoL
C9 Portilho
  • C9 vs TSM always delivers holy FUCK GG @followdunc

OTHERS

Lolesports Stats
  • With that, @blaber is 8-1 on Kindred in the #LCS.
Doublelift
  • I'm a fan of TSM. I'm biased but their bot lane got gapped this series. They keep getting bot gapped in their games and they need to figure it out.
Pastrytime
  • LET'S GO @Fudgecakey Feels like he powered-up throughout this series in a big way, but C9 also made sure to give him tools to succeed. Only question is when can I watch these two #LCS teams play again 'cause that series absolutely SLAPPED.
Azael
  • FBI & Huhi Zven & Vulcan CoreJJ & Tactical The difference between these 3 bot lanes and the rest of the league feels ENORMOUS so far in #LCS. Bot diff almost every single game!
G2 Esports
  • TSM XD
MikeYeung
  • BLABER KINDRED IS ACTUALLY CRAZY
    • he knows his limits so well
  • One of the biggest smurfs @Fudgecakey
Markz
  • Really fun series between TSM and C9, super back and forth. Both teams also looking like they have a lot of work to get onto the 100T/TL tier.
Tim Sevenhuysen
  • I've seen a lot of pre-tournament sentiment about not judging teams or players too harshly on too few games early in the year.
Kelsey Moser
Vedius
  • One of these supports should be paid 6 big ones thats for sure
LCS Official
submitted by ImLegacys to TeamSolomid [link] [comments]

Upon a Dead Horse: Chapter Three

In our last episode
Micro coil electro guns are faster and more portable than a long coil rifle, but are much harder to aim. It was this fact more than fast reflexes that was his salvation. Although the air was sizzling with flying bolts and his hair stood on end as the ion tracer beams tried to find him he was still able to dive to ground and do a fast crawl towards the first large bit of protection he could find without being hit. Unfortunately the only shield he spotted was that same wagon he had only recently escaped. Meanwhile the dry goods store behind him suffered an onslaught of blue and yellow bolts of light splintering the exterior wall.
He squeezed himself into a tight ball near the rear axle and checked the charge on his rifle. The low battery light was on. Unless he could find a power supply soon he had maybe one or two full power shots left. Technically speaking the stock had a solar panel and the gun would recharge on its own, but he suspected no one was going to allow him an eight or nine day intermission to do that.
He was too exposed where he was but he couldn't really run anywhere while all those electro bolts were hammering the wagon behind him. At any moment it would occur to the angry mob that they could spread out to encircle the wagon and come at him from the sides while he was still pinned down. Worse, even if they didn't think of it, the wagon could only take so much abuse. So far only a handful of bolts had managed to punch all the way through the wagon. That wouldn't last. He was still considering his options when the situation went from bad to completely catastrophic.
"Well, well, well," a voice called out over the gun fire. Suddenly all the guns stopped firing in unison. That was almost worse than having them all shooting at him. Having them taper off or a few stragglers who were late to notice the new arrival would mean that the people were acting as individuals. A simultaneous shutdown like that, more orderly even than most military units could manage, meant only one thing. As if to confirm his suspicions, the voice continued.
"If it isn't the Oligarch's favorite dog," the voice called out, "Marshal Aldo Crease."
The marshal winced. It had been years since anyone had spoken that name. He still found the sound of it left a sour taste in his mouth.
"Evening Kincaid," Mashal Crease called back, "Any chance you'll consider coming along peacefully?"
Kincaid laughed.
"Oh please," Kincaid said, "Do at least do me the great favor of standing up. I want to show you off to my flock."
Crease ground his teeth and considered his options. He could, he supposed, pop up with the rifle and try firing at Kincaid. But, he needed a better idea where the man was to do that. He did not have enough power left in the gun for a wide spread lethal blast. He might be able to pull off a knockout. Barely. But even then that was iffy because with Kincaid hopped up on his own juice like he was he might not go down.
"If you are considering shooting me," Kincaid said with a voice that projected both confidence and mockery at the same time, "You may want to look to your right."
Crease glanced that direction and grimaced. The giantess had appeared again and was now stomping in his direction. He spun the rifle in her direction and, to his immense relief, she stopped in her tracks. Unfortunately, that also meant Kincaid could tell where Crease was aiming.
"Gun moves off her," Kincaid explained, "And Viana there tears you apart. Shoot her and we open fire as she heals. So you can shoot me or shoot her. But not both at once and Viana and I will get right back up no matter which one you choose . So do as I told you and stand up!"
Crease sighed and slowly climbed to his feet while training his rifle on Viana the whole time. He tried to remember why that name sounded familiar. Wasn't that the woman Yacob had said was a deserter who had battle tech? No wonder she hit so hard. If her gear was military grade it may even be a higher spec than his own. He made certain to keep his eyes on her as he shot a glance in Kincaid's direction.
The crowd stood motionless and facing him. Over half the people seemed to be armed with some sort of weapon. Mostly micro coil pistols but he thought he saw a few short barrelled scatterguns and at least one heavy coil military grade rifle that would make short work of the building behind him much less the contents of his skull. The crowd was composed of both men and women of various ages. Old men with long beards and frock coats and young women wearing a sheer garment that left almost nothing to the imagination. There were even a few teenagers in the mix. Those that were not armed with firearms carried knives or homemade cudgels. All of them also carried the same identical blank expression on their faces. Only the man standing in the back wearing white robes showed any signs of animation. He was also completely unarmed. Not that he needed a direct weapon.
"Kincaid," Crease acknowledged the man.
Kincaid's grin broadened and took on an eerie maddened look. The man's hair was wild and unkempt and the bags under his eyes were a testament to the exhaustion he must feel. Even though health and vigor seemed to ooze from the man's pores, there was also a slightly frayed look about him. As if his health were just a mast for something shredding him apart from within.
"The feedback loop is too far gone," he heard the Oligarch's voice say in his ear, "If he stops now the blowback will shred him to pieces."
Crease didn't answer. He hadn't needed the analysis. He too knew the signs of an arcane who had pushed their talent - no matter how potent - beyond the abilities of sustaining. The man in front of him was a runaway reactor spewing health into the area. It would almost be comical if the effects weren't so tragic. His own acarnic talents, though greatly suppressed, were telling him something that he was certain no one else - save perhaps Kincaid himself - even suspected. Over half the crowd of people in front of him were already dead. Their bodies just hadn't got the notice yet.
The reasons didn't matter. A heart that had been sent racing only to burst. A pancreas overproducing insulin. Blood cells produced in such numbers that the blood inside was a thick syrup that barely flowed. Too much vitality was killing these people and it was only Kincaid's out of control talent that was keeping them upright and walking as is.
"You've got to stop this, Kincaid," Crease said, "You don't know what you're doing. You have to stop it. It's destroying you and everyone around you."
He knew his warning would be unheeded. He expected to be ignored. Truth be told, he wasn't sure there was a safe for Kincaid to stop without killing himself and half the town. The crops were already beyond saving. The delicate balance between life and death had been shoved too far to one side and he already knew first hand how unrecoverable such acts could be.
Kincaid tilted his head to one side and frowned.
"Why can't I feel you?" he asked. Belatedly, Crease became aware of a faint tingling sensation along his skin. Kincaid must be trying to influence him.
"I'm immune to arcana," Crease said simply.
"So it is true," Kincaid asked, smile returning, "The great and mighty Aldo Crease. Once a general in the Patagonia Resistance and now little more than a dog for the Oligarch itself. I knew about your resurrection, of course. But I thought the rumors of your unbalanced arcana were just that. Rumors."
Crease winced. He liked having the details of his unfortunate past being revealed even less than having his name spoken aloud. Apparently Kincaid hadn't just fled the Citadel empty handed. He must have taken some intelligence files with him. Which meant the man wasn't just AWOL. He was rebelling. Oh no. No no no.
"Kincaid," Crease asked slowly, "What is it you think you are doing?"
"Picking up where you left off, of course," Kincaid said, "Doing what you only attempted to do all those centuries before failing."
"Look," Crease said as he spread his arms wide in order to look less threatening, "You're not thinking right. Your bioware's last system flash accidentally included some very nasty software. Software your brainbox doesn't have the hardware to support."
Kincaid's smile grew impossibly wide. The corners of his mouth almost tearing the skin apart on his emaciated face.
"Accident?" Kincaid asked, "You think this was a mere accident? I had to graft the code by hand. Do you know how long it took for me to figure out how to do that? How many hours it took of digging through the Oligarch's data archives while simultaneously tripping any alarms? It took me months to even confirm that the Avatar program even existed!"
"An accident," Crease insisted, "It had to be because if you had read anything on the Avatar program details you would have known what you were doing was insane."
"Oh I read it," Kincaid insisted, "Eighteen modest talent arcana received a bioware upgrade. They jumped at least one arcana class each. A Class II pyromancer jumped to abilities above Class I. Just shy of Apex level!"
"Yes," Crease agreed, "Only to suffer a complete mental breakdown. This was despite extensive psychological testing and conditioning prior to upgrading their bioware. Blocking the physiological need for sleep, enhanced multitasking, and neural stimulation are all great but the human mind can't operate at those levels forever. That's why their upgrades included the ability to remote shutdown."
"But can you imagine the possibilities if these upgrades were applied to an Apex?" Kincaid said, "Or, better still. Don't imagine. Observe! See what I have done here!"
"This is wrong," Crease said, "You don't realize what you are doing to these people."
"But I do," he said, "There is no death here. No disease. No frailty or feebleness. Only perfection."
"Look at them," Crease said. He still held the rifle in his left arm so he waved with his right. Kincaid eyes twitched once but did not follow the gesture. It was as if he were afraid that Crease would try something if he looked away. Fair enough as Crease had been thinking of doing exactly that.
"Look at them," Crease repeated, "Everyone here. It's like they can't see or hear anything. They only move when you want them to."
"Yes," Kincaid agreed, "Perfect. You of all people should see that."
Crease lowered his arms. Kincaid didn't stop him.
"This is an army," Crease said in a hushed tone. It wasn't a question, but Kincaid nodded anyway.
"Yes," he said with a theatrical bow, "Or, rather, it will be. I'm still building it now and my soldier lack discipline as well as, ahem, sharp shooting skills. But, yes, very soon it will be an army.."
"Damn it, Kincaid."
"You should appreciate the symmetry of it," Kincaid added.
"Damn it and damn you!" Crease repeated with more venom this time, "You know how that went down! I had 5,000 undead soldiers with me! What do you expect to do with a bunch of farmers and deserters?"
"Win," he said simply, "I keep telling you. I know about you and what you did during the Luddite War. The last great battle before humans were overrun and made the . . . the pets!"
Here Kincaid practically spat the word.
"The pets!" he repeated, "The slaves of some computer. Governments caved. Countries rolled over. But not you! Oh no! Not the great and mighty Crease! The first Apex! You who could fling waves of death through the very air! You commanded a legion of the undead! You pushed back against this cybernetic monstrosity only to fall at the very doorstep of its stronghold."
"I was shot to pieces," Crease said simply, "It's kind of hard to march with no legs."
"You were already dead!" Kincaid shouted, "An unkillable zombie! You had filled your corpse with so much necromantic arcana it could not be destroyed! Your very limbs kept crawling towards your objective even after they were separated! The only way they ever stopped you was by freezing all the bits of you!"
"They didn't freeze me!" Crease shouted back, "The Oligarch's fortress is in the heart of Antarctica! What do you think happens to corpses when it's below freezing!"
Kincaid shook his head sadly.
"You still don't get it, Crease," he said in a mocking tone, "You still don't understand where you made your great mistake, do you?"
"I just told you," Crease said, "Charging across a frozen continent during the winter."
"No," Kincaid said, "Your mistake was in joining them. When you assembled your undead army you had no way of dealing with the blowback. So you thought your only hope was to use it. To channel all that recoil back into yourself and let it consume you. To become just another soldier in a sucide gambit. But, don't you see? What if you never ever stopped. Just kept feeding the power back in on itself over and over again. Sending wave after wave of the undead."
"That's not possible," Crease said with a shake of his head, "It's too much power. The human mind can't take that."
"I've been doing just that for months now!" Kincaid shouted, "Look at what I've done!"
"It's shredding you," Crease said, "Your own power is keeping you going for the moment but you can't hold it up forever. Look at your face! Your hands! You're breaking down!"
"I'm more alive than ever!"
"No!" Crease insisted, "You've got vitamancy running through you. It's not the same."
"You should know," Kincaid snapped, "How many vitamancers died to bring you back?"
Crease shook his head.
"This isn't the way," he said, "Please. I'm trying to help you."
"You? Help me? A traitor like you?" Kincaid snarled, "Just because you were too weak to bring down the machine don't presume to know me or my limits!"
Crease could see the decision forming in Kincaid's wild eyes. The strain of exertion, the lack of sleep, the madness of controlling those many minds one neuron at a time. It was too much for him and he was already past the point of no return. He was going to give the kill order and there was nothing Crease could do to stop him. So, he didn't even bother to try. Crease mentally flipped the panic switch in his brainbox.
Time slowed down. He could see Kincaid's lips moving, presumably to give the kill order, but no sound reached him other than the roar of blood in his own ears. Adrenaline and endorphins were flooding his bloodstream as well as artificial hormones manufactured by the synthgland at the base of his skull. His heart thundered in his chest while his nerve endings seemed to dance with barely suppressed energy. Ahead of him the muzzle of every gun and the tip of every improvised weapon sprouted cones of probability as his stochastic subunit filled his mind with data. His allowed his conscious mind to flit out of the driver's seat so that the preprogrammed battle reflexes could take over.
The battle processor evaluated the abundance of weaponry, the layout of the combatants, and his own weaponry and decided the best course of action was to allow his own knees to buckle. He fell to the ground before Kincaid could get the last syllable out of his mouth and the air above Crease glowed with lightning. The wagon shuddered from multiple impacts. But the battle programming was not done. His hands twisted the barrel of the rifle even as he was falling so that when he landed on the ground on his side the rifle was pointed under the wagon and towards the crowd opposite him. His fingers found the trigger almost immediately and he fired a wide focused beam at the legs of the people opposite him. He barely registered the howling of pain as people dropped. He rolled onto his back in one smooth movement and turned to face the towering figure of Viana running directly at him.
The gun was now depleted. It was useful only as a club. If the person racing towards him was a normal human his enhanced speed, strength, and durability might give him an edge even while laying on the ground. But Viana was enhanced as well. Probably more so than he was. She also had about double his muscle mass on top of that. He needed a distraction if he had any hope of taking her out. His battle mode was evaluating possibilities and coming up dry. He didn't see a way of escaping that gave him a better than a nine percent chance of success. Fortunately, having the battle processor do the movements for him gave him a chance to think and perhaps alter the odds on the fly. Which is what he was doing in this case. Unfortunately, the only thing that occurred to him was a party trick he learned in his pre-Luddite War days. It was a cheap shot, but it was also the best idea he could come up with at the moment.
Saying there was no death in the valley was, of course, an exaggeration. Death on macroscale could be interrupted but even a powerful vitamancer like Kincaid couldn't halt it entirely. Nor should he. Cells dying and replacing themselves are part of the natural life cycle of living organisms and interrupting this process would also halt the body's ability to grow and repair itself. Which is why even in a place oversaturated with vitamantic energy there was still some degree of dying and regeneration taking place. For an ordinary necromancer such trivialities were simple nitpicking. They only had the ability to affect the dead on a macro scale. Crease was no ordinary necromancer.
Though his power was greatly reduced on account of the vitamancy used in his own resurrection, his skillset still remained. With great effort he could still feel the dead and dying cells within a body and, to some extent, influence them. In the field he could use this ability to aid living soldiers by slowing the process of necrosis in infected wounds and other low level healing abilities. But one other trick he learned was that if he focused on the person's hair he could influence the cells there. After all, what is hair but a chain of dead cells clinging to a still living root? So, with great effort on his part, he tapped into that ability now and reached outwards with his gift to Viana's head. Mentally straining, he tapped millions of dead cells to alter themselves ever so slightly.
The giantess was almost on top of him when he made the last connection and the cells in her hair let go in unison. The black hair that had been piled up upon her head fell off as if cleaved by an invisible sword. The rage that twisted the woman's face gave way to confusion as her own hair fell before her eyes and momentarily blinded her. Then, without thinking, she made the worst possible decision she could in such circumstances. Forgetting entirely about Crease, she reached up with both hands and gripped the top of her own head to see if the falling hair really were her own. The stochastic processor in Crease's own head took note of the change in posture and calculated the most appropriate response. So he was only slightly more prepared than Viana when the arc of the rifle's swing intersected with the side of her knee.
Viana dropped to the ground howling in pain. Enhanced durability and vitamancy were great, but even they occasionally had to take a back seat to pure physics. He had hit the side of her knee with every bit of speed and strength his own enhancements could afford him. The bones in the leg were unbreakable but even with battle tech a knee is still mostly supported by soft tissue. The tissue could be reinforced with synthetic fibers, but a certain degree of stretching had to be allowed in order to keep the knee functioning as a knee. A powerful blow to the side of a battle hardened knee could still knock the joint out of alignment and then gravity would do the rest. As Viana fell her own weight would tear many of the organic connections that were still present even though the synthetics would largely hold. Knees have a lot of nerves running through them and even minor injuries can be incredibly distracting to even the toughest soldiers. This was not a minor injury and it would take Viana's brainbox several seconds to adjust to the input flooding the gateway. Which is why Crease's own brainbox decided the best way to deal with this was to reorient the rifle into an overhead swing that terminated on the side of Viana's skull before she even hit the ground.
The blow should have killed her. Anywhere else, it may have. Even with a reinforced skull the brain cannot be rattled around like that without consequences. But here all it seemed to buy him was a few moments of unconsciousness as her brain healed itself. He crawled over to her unconscious form and briefly searched her pockets for any hint of a weapon he could use.
"Crease!" Kincaid called out, somehow cutting through the fog in his head, "Did you forget the horse?"
The horse? What was he talking about?
As in answer the horse started neighing and pawing at the ground frantically. Its nostrils flared as it snorted and tossed its head from side to side. Belatedly, he realized exactly what Kincaid was doing. The same thing Crease's own bioware had done to him. The same thing as was likely occurring within the bodies of the crowd of angry gunmen. The creature's rage was being stoked. It had barely flinched from the gunfire but now it was lashing out against, well, nothing. All Kincaid had to do was wait for it to notice Crease and then send the creature's rage skyrocketing. Suddenly the scant cover offered by the cart seemed to go from "flimsy" to "nonexistent" in the blink of an eye. Crease was unsure what his next move should be. Fortunately, his battle reflexes had an idea. Not a good one but an idea.
Crease's legs slammed into the ground beneath him. He found himself hurtling upwards and over the top of the cart while flattening himself. It seemed to be a sloppy jump as he was even now falling back onto the tarp covering the back of the cart. He couldn't help but notice that he was now presenting a rather hard to miss target and, sure enough, his left side exploded in agony as some of the lightning bolts struck home. But his battle reflexes were still moving.
His body cleared the edge of the cart and was threatening to crash into the dividing wall separating the front from the back of the car. Just before his head could hit the wall, his still functioning right hand punched at the wood. The blow was done with little regards to his comfort, it seems, as a shock of fresh agony traveled up his fist and along the wrist towards his elbow. His falling body landed atop the tarp causing it to tangle up with him as he landed in a belly flop inside the tail of the cart. The wall closest to the gunmen was still exploding to pieces and it took him a few precious - not to mention painful - seconds to extricate himself. What had that all been about? He glanced up at the damage done to the wall ahead of him and found his view of the outside world blocked by a rather familiar looking rust stained bit of cloth. Scrambling forward, he used his blooded hands to tear the hole he had created wider until he could reach the bundle of his own coat that had been stored under the seat on the opposite side of the wall.
"Hold your fire!" Kincaid shouted and, as before, all the townspeople's guns were silenced at once. Nothing seemed to happen for a long moment and no movement could be seen coming from the cart.
"What's the matter, Crease?" Kincaid shouted into the echoing silence, "Did that healing arcana that's filling you finally run out?"
In answer, Crease's upper body appeared over the sidewall as he sat up and faced Kincaid and the angry mob. Crease was now sporting his duster once more and in his hands he held two pistols.
"Fu-!" is as far as Kincaid got before lightning erupted from Crease's pistols.
The twin shots struck the heads of two people in the crowd. Instead of dropping, those people twisted to the side and fired their own guns at someone else. By that time the people Crease had originally shot were starting to recover but now two more gunmen were shooting. As Crease leaped from the cart, guns firing continuously, Kincaid started screaming.
Unlike Crease, Kincaid had never been a soldier. He had no experience with the chaos and confusion of battle. So it was that he was completely unprepared for his own side to start firing upon itself in apparent retaliation to the necromancer's influence.
People who had previously been responding well to his own influence were now turning upon one another and firing. Not just at the commandeered corpses Crease was piloting but upon anyone they even suspected was shooting at them. As Crease ran at an angle, firing the entire time, he jumped from body to body and caused the town folks to fire at their neighbors. Soon old passions and grudges were influencing decision making as much as anything else. Lightning bolts flared and Kincaid struggled to get a calming influence to settle over the crowd as they reacted to both the very real danger around them and the imaginary one he had been feeding them just moments ago.
Crease twisted and dodged as he ran. His coat flared as it caught stray lightning bolts. The metallic weaving offered some protection, but not much. Crease felt his limbs grow heavy and then numb as the corona of multiple blasts washed over him. He kept moving.
One battery was spent. He ejected it and slammed to pistol's butt against the quickloader belt he had strapped to his waist. Firing with a fresh battery with his right hand he repeated the process with his off hand to continue the onslaught upon the crowd. Trying to find an opening to target Kincaid. All the while his mind was busy flickering among recently dead and attempting to cause as much damage as possible before being ejected himself. Every as he ran the strain of keeping so many bodies coordinated was taking its toll. He briefly let go and allowed the blowback to wash over him.
His vision blurred as a grenade exploded inside his head. He felt dizzy and his arms and legs were now moving only because the brainbox told them to. He was on autopilot and riding the wave of feedback as his own body tried to cope with competing signals from his brain.
"Stop shooting!" Kincaid shouted again, "You can't die! Don't fall for this trick!"
It was good advice but the mob was now far beyond listening. Many were now shooting at each other even without Crease's influence. The shots missed as Kincaid dodged in an inhumanly fast way. But it was only a matter of time before one of the bolts, intended or otherwise, struck him. Kincaid apparently came to the same realization as he abruptly roared in anger and everyone, save for himself, and Crease dropped to the ground just as Crease's head was starting to clear.
The people dropped as if they were puppets who had their strings cut. For just a moment, Crease's necromantic powers fluttered as he received the sensation of dozens of limbs and bodies dying only to be nearly instantly reborn. It wasn't hard to guess what had happened. Kincaid had just sent out a mental shockwave that had temporarily stopped the nervous systems of everyone near him. Just stopped dead in their tracks. Hearts stopped beating. Muscle fibers stopped twitching. It was like getting paralyzed while also suffering a heart attack. People dropped because he gave them no choice. Even the enraged horse fell silent as its own legs gave way. Only Crease's own unbalanced arcana had managed to protect him from suffering a similar fate.
Crease aimed his guns at the suddenly exposed Kincaid. Kincaid's face changed into a sneer of contempt. Crease's fingers squeezed the trigger and, to his amazement, the bolts missed the target by mere centimeters. Impossibly, Kincaid had ducked to one side!
Crease tried again but, again, Kincaid simply stepped to one side in a blur of motion so fast that even with Crease's own slowed sense of time he could just barely register the movement. With dawning horror, Crease realized that the shockwave that had dropped the town's people to the ground hadn't just been intended as a way to wrestle control of their guns away from Crease. No, now that he wasn't splitting his attention a hundred different ways Kincaid was free to focus entirely upon himself.
The healer's grin had changed from insane madman's to a feral grimace that was equal parts pain and determination. Sweat boiled off the man's scalp as his face flushed a fiery red. Crease tried to aim again but the vitamancer zigged to one side before zagging back. He was running fast. Faster than Crease thought a human being should be able to maintain without tearing itself apart. Faster than Crease and his battle reflexes could match. Every time his brain thought it had acquired a target lock the healer was somewhere else. Crease's battle reflexes opted on random firing while trying to anticipate the healer's movements. However, the software upgrade Kincaid had received didn't just enhance his ability to stall the onset of blowback. Its own stochastic modeling was on par or superior to Crease's own. The healer bounced around, never quite being where Crease predicted, until suddenly Crease felt tight fingers wrapped around his throat. His vision shrank to a small window as Kincaid's face swam into view.
"Why don't you just die?" Kincaid shrieked.
Crease couldn't answer that question even if he desired to. He gagged for a moment before finding himself flying backwards and slamming into the much abused cart. He landed on his knees and tried to get air back in his lungs. His battle reflexes seemed to be offline as his brainbox attempted to sort out the jumbled data in his head. Something struck him across the jaw and he went sprawling in the dirt. He wanted to rise. Tried to rise. But a foot struck him in the back and sent his face first back into the dirt.
"Die you immortal abomination!" Kincaid's hysterical voice cried out, "Die!"
Crease heard a ripping and tearing sound. The cart, he thought. Kincaid was tearing apart the cart with his bare hands. A board slammed into Crease's back causing him to bite his own tongue as his head bounced off the dirt. Blood filled his mouth and he could only hear Kincaid's screaming.
"The gun is still in your hand," someone said in his ear. Who was that?
"The pistol," the voice repeated, "Your battle reflexes wouldn't let go of it. It's still being held in your left hand."
Pistol? What was that word? It was hard to concentrate as something kept smashing into the back of his skull and spine. He wanted to tell it to stop, but words were difficult.
"Open your eyes," the voice commanded. Reluctantly, Crease obeyed. One eye he immediately screwed shut again as it was being driven relentlessly into the dirt. But the other he could see out of. Barely. The world was crooked and blurred. But ahead of him he thought he saw a shape climbing to its feet. A bit shape. Struggling to stand but close to him.
"Now!" the voice commanded, "Behind the jaw!"
He wasn't sure he understood the meaning behind the words, but he did as the voice suggested. As the giant lifted near him, he rotated his arm at the elbow until the gun was almost vertical. Shoving upwards, he pressed the muzzle to just behind the thing's chin and pulled the trigger. As he did this he realized there was a doorway ahead of him and that he felt no pain on the other side of it. Happily, he shoved himself through the doorway and found himself looking down upon his own body as a superhumanly fast Kincaid shattered a board to splinters as he pummeled the reclined form.
Crease's thoughts were clearing. He was not having an out of body experience. Not exactly. He was in a body. Just, not his own. He glanced down upon himself and realized the body was female. A very, very large female. Viana!
Memories came flooding back. The Oligarch had been speaking to him. Asking him to do what? Place the gun under the chin and fire. Why? The answer clicked into place almost immediately. The skull reinforcements in battle tech were applied to the top, the front, the back, and the sides but not to the bottom of the skull. To do so would require injecting the laminate in through the roof of the mouth. As the skull laminate also contained microfilaments to disperse an electrical charge, a soldier could actually potentially survive a shot from a small coil weapon. Which is why battle tech enhanced soldiers in the field who wanted to commit suicide often chose to place the wapon under their chin,
The electric bolt would have punched through Viana's skull and pureed her brain as the bolt slammed into the filaments and was reflected back. Unlike his earlier sledgehammer move to the head that had caused a concussion, this time the brain itself had been blown to bits. He could feel the vitamancer's ambient arcana trying to force the brain to reform, but for the moment the woman was quite dead. Which meant Crease was in control for now.
Even though his real body was getting beaten severely, for the moment, he felt no pain. He knew that using this much necromancy, particularly after his recent usage, was going to cause a blowback sooner rather than later. But, for the moment, he was tempted to relish the feeling of being pain free. The temptation passed. If he didn't move and move soon this brief respite would be all for nothing. He needed a plan. Except it was still difficult to think. His arcana had projected his consciousness, but his real brain was still getting pummelled. He couldn't even ask the Oligarch for advice without going back into the maelstrom of beatdowns. What he needed was someplace he could stash the vitamancer until he had a chance to recover. He looked around looking for inspiration. He was surprised when he found it. Without waiting a moment to reconsider if this was a wise decision, he propelled the giantess forward at a full sprint and snatched the vitamancer in one beefy hand as he/she ran.
Kincaid was caught off guard and, as such, he didn't realize what was happening until Viana's fist had closed around his throat. By that time it was too late for him to dodge to one side. But that didn't exactly mean he was helpless.
Crease noticed the feedback from Viana's corpse was unusually potent. The air rushing past, the feel of the dirt under her feet, and even the burning in her own lungs all seemed to be amplified. He guessed that Kincaid was increasing Viana's nerve sensitivity and stepped slightly back and away from the driver's seat just before KIncaid launched a punch into the giantess's forearm.
Stepping out of the body slightly was a mixed blessing. He avoided the overwhelming pain sensation that Kincaid was attempting to flood him with but was now highly aware of the very real pain coming from his own body. The double sided attack of blinding pain from both bodies nearly broke his concentration. But he held on. Barely.
Kincaid punched and slammed his fists at the arm with inhuman speed. The bone's laminate prevented it from cracking. So he changed tactics and increased the photosensitivity of the giant's eyes. The light was suddenly too bright and Viana could not see. Crease continued running and flitted more of his own awareness back to his own body. Slowly and painfully, he managed to move his real neck once more. He was now steering the body remotely. Less secure, but possible.
Sensing something was wrong, Kincaid tried other tactics. He caused her heart to stop beating. He forced her lungs to stop breathing and cut off blood to her muscles. All of which would have stopped her in her tracks if her body had been alive in the first place. Realizing his mistake, Kincaid switched directions again and focused on healing her damaged brain. Crease felt his control being shoved away. The giantess's gait became more erratic. He was hurting. It hurt to move. He switched to battle mode and told his battle implants to target the back of the running giantess. He allowed it to take full motor control.
The world went red with pain as his body moved without him consciously willing it. The servos flipped him around on damaged muscles and lifted his arm on a torn and agonizing shoulder. The finger squeezed on the pistol's trigger and suddenly he was back in the driver's seat of Viana's body. Bolts of lightning tore through her chest from behind as Kincaid released a gurgled scream. Crease directed Viana's other hand to join the one currently wrapped around Kincaid's throat. Together they squeezed with every bit of her enhanced strength. Kincaid's face turned purple for a brief moment before he, again, focused the healing arcana back into himself. As the pained expression returned to his previous snarl, Crease saw a look of concern cross over the vitamancer's face.
Although the events had felt like they took place over several minutes subjectively, both Crease and Kincaid had been operating in accelerated time. While for Crease this increased time awareness had been giving him a greater time to plan, Kincaid, on the other hand, had been acting out of instinct and raw emotion. When Viana had dragged Kincaid away from Crease's helpless body he had continued to react on pure emotion. He had lashed out and tried to fight Viana as carried him further and further from his intended target. It was not until the last moment that it even occurred to him to wonder where she was taking him to.
The giantess struck the side of the well before doubling over and falling in. The last view Crease had from her undead eyes was of Kincaid, still grasped in her strong hands, falling backwards into the well with Viana coming right after him. Crease let go as the darkness swallowed both of them and waited for the long delayed blowback to hit him. He screamed when the pain enveloped him but few heard him. Everyone else who could scream was screaming along with him.
And now for our exciting conclusion:
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free matched odds calculator video

Matched Betting For Dummies Matched Betting: Using the Oddsmatching Software Is Matched Betting Still Worth It In 2020? - YouTube +EV Guide to Matched Betting - YouTube Matched Betting Checklist (Always Do These Things) Matched Betting Calculator - How to Get Free Bookmaker Bets and Turn Them into Money - YouTube

Use our matched betting calculator to work out how much money to stake on your lay bet at the betting exchange to ensure guaranteed profit. Use the dropdown menu to get the right results whether you're placing a qualifying bet, a free bet where the stake is not returned (SNR), or a free bet where the stake is returned (SR). º See the potential profits on both normal and free bets. º Find out This is because placing a bet only takes to seconds as you do not have to search for offers or close odds. Get your free trial of Profit Accumulator here and make around £30 for free. Free Matched Betting Calculator Summary. Free matched betting calculators are sufficient to be successful at matched betting. They enable you to place ordinary An odds calculator will help you place your free bets in a manner which gives you the most winnings. By using an odds calculator, you can select wagers which offer the most profit. You can use the free odds calculator at Profit Accumulator. Our full Platinum members also get access to nine more advanced calculators. A matched betting calculator and matched betting spreadsheet will do all the heavy lifting in determining appropriate bet sizes, lay stakes, and helping you track your progress, but you still need to have a good idea of how these calculations are coming to pass and how you should be utilising them. My matched betting calculator is the perfect tool to help with your qualifying bets. It can also help you convert free bets, risk-free bets and bonuses into cash. Simply enter your back stake, odds and lay commission and the calculator will tell you how much to lay at the betting exchange. New to matched betting? £20 Free Bet; 6.0 back odds; 6.6 lay odds; 0% Commission To use the free bet, we need to prepare the calculator with the above info. We also need to ensure that Free Bet SNR is selected. As this offer is laying £20 at 6.6, you’ll need just under £85 in your betting exchange account. After placing the back and lay bet, you will have made just over £15 total profit. Advanced Matched The free bet calculator can be used for a normal bet or for a free bet. Simply enter the figures and the matched betting calculator (free bet calculator) does all of the leg work for you. It tells you exactly how much to Back and how much to Lay. Keep it in simple mode for all your risk free betting needs, but if you’re a pro at this, you can For most people this is just a box that makes the calculator look more complicated! The Lay Odds are the odds that you have laid your bet at on Betfair, for example Manchester United could have been 1.84 to bet against. So, you put 1.84 into the Lay Odds box. The Lay Commission on Betfair is 5%, although this will reduce the more you use it. The Free Bet Calculator is the most advanced online sports bet calculator, allowing you to calculate the stake and profit for an extensive range of bets. All of the most popular bet types are supported, including Lucky 15, Single, Double, Accumulator, Patent and Round Robin, along with more specialised bets such as Alphabet, Magnificent 7, Union Jack, and the infamous Bookies Nightmare! Our free matched betting calculator provides added functionality with four advanced modes: Normal – default setting used to calculate the same profit or loss whatever the outcome; Overlay – used to calculate the lay amount required to finish level on the exchange after commission when wanting to bias the win/loss with the bookmaker. Underlay – used to calculate the lay amount required to

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Matched Betting For Dummies

This video goes through how to use a normal matched betting calculator and also how to use online betting school's unique "Free bet to money converter" calculator" and "Free bet getter calculator ... How to use the Oddsmatching Software for matched betting. Check out https://matchedbox.co.uk/ for a free trial! Matched Betting is easy, but mistakes that reduce your profit can still happen. Follow this pre-bet checklist before making any Matched Bets and make sure you're making the most money online as ... New to Matched Betting? checkout our newbies quick video to the very basics of Matched Betting, please subscribe to our channel for more advanced videos whic... Sports Betting Explained 👉 Finally Understand Sports Betting Spreads & Odds ... Dutch Search & Matched Betting Calculator ... £11,000+ From No Risk Matched Betting - Tax-Free ... Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube. This is something I recorded last year too, discussing whether matched betting is still worthwhile this year. THE 2021 VERSION OF THIS VIDEO IS NOW LIVE! Wat...

free matched odds calculator

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